Brexit outcome gamble

bigadaj

george4064 wrote: »

The below is a snippet of a research note sent from investment banking firm; Liberium.

Will be interesting to review that after the vote.

The great get out clause they have is that they obviously haven't given a time period over which those companies might be affected.

Though if you're not risking your own money then any speculation or recommendations are of limited value.

george4064

bigadaj wrote: »

Will be interesting to review that after the vote.

The great get out clause they have is that they obviously haven't given a time period over which those companies might be affected.

Though if you're not risking your own money then any speculation or recommendations are of limited value.

Indeed.

Funnily enough, I actually know the chap at Liberium who issued the research note!

Prothet_of_Doom

The only person Gambling on the Future was That !!!! Cameron when he foolishly decided that it was a great idea to have a referendum.
Is he that stupid or arrogant that he didn't realise that most of those that would be fence sitters, will vote leave just to give him a bloody nose.
I hold very strong beliefs that we should stay in Europe, but am tempted to vote leave because There hasn't been one sentence that came out of the !!!!'s mouth that sounded rational or truthful.
On the other hand, I'm yet to hear anything from the leave side that sounded rational or truthful, and I'll vote based on belief rather than fact.

bigadaj

george4064 wrote: »

Indeed.

Funnily enough, I actually know the chap at Liberium who issued the research note!

When it's a deal that you're taking a percentage on, whatever happens doesn't really matter.

The only thing better is getting a nice consultancy contract to espouse some views.

racing_blue

topped up UKX tracker at FTSE = 59xx

I think we will remain

grey_gym_sock

short-term gambles? not really. but i have amended the timing of some longer term investments.

i reckon i will have £X to add to my investments in equities over the next year or so.

in the last 2 weeks, i've used c. 25% of £X to buy new holdings in 2 UK property companies (viz. LSR and UAI). the timing is because i expect "remain" to win, and i guess that these shares' prices would fall (in the short term) if "leave" wins, or recover if "remain" wins - and that they're currently a bit lower than they might be if there were no referendum. but i will continue to hold these shares regardless of the outcome.

meanwhile, at least 50% of £X is intended to go into overseas equities. and i'm waiting until after a "remain" vote, after which the pound will presumably recover, making overseas shares cheaper (in £), before i start buying any overseas shares. though i intend to do this gradually, anyway.

if i am wrong, and "leave" wins, i will consider using part of £X to buy some additional UK shares (after they presumably crash). thinking of trading companies, rather than property companies (because i probably have enough of the latter now).

movilogo

While 75 per cent of the total money bet at William Hill had gone on Remain, he said: “In terms of the actual numbers of bets made it’s the other way round: 75 per cent of bets on Leave and 25 per cent on Remain.”

He admitted: “At the back of my mind, there is the possibility that the high percentage of individual bets on Leave could be an indicator that we got it wrong.

“And in the last general election, a lot of small staking punters [like those now betting on Leave] voted for an outright Tory majority when we were saying it wasn’t going to happen.”

Source:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-bookies-have-always-made-a-remain-vote-favourite-and-the-odds-continue-to-shorten-a7093971.html

bigadaj

What odds can you get on Belgium being invaded by the end of the year?

Pincher

Didn't Brussels get bombed in March?

EdGasket

El_Selb wrote: »

I put 100 on remain at 4/9... Thinking abouting hedging that now!

Hedge £100 ?? or £100 a point on a spreadbet?