Referendum: which way are you voting?

qwert_yuiop

Check out arlene in the guardian today, extolling the benefits of brexit. (Free website) The Dear Leader possibly didn't even get a majority of dup voters on side, never mind the population at large, and there she is. There's one nonsensical comment about the damage the eu has done to the Irish republic. The only reason the place is any kind of a success is the eu.

motorguy

Remain

x12yhp wrote: »

Sorry. No. That is dillusional nonsense. That is like saying that you got fat because of all that chocolate and trying to deny that sugar has anything to do with it! The currency speculation is a result, not least of he cause. Brexit gave rise to the situation and currency speculation resulted. BREXIT IS THE ROOT CAUSE.

My dad complains like you do. It is other people's greed causing this. Yes, but what idiot thought about it and concluded that people wouldn't try to make money out of it. It was a foregone conclusion that this would occur but lots of people seemed to think that the lamb in the midst of the pack of wolves would be safe. The world should work that way but it has not done so for thousands of years and it was idiocy to think it would here!

Ah yes. Because Brexit.

RikM

Remain

Please get the root cause right: "call me Dave" wimping out of actually leading his own party...

x12yhp

For goodness sake! We are seeing things changing. They are not good here. What did YOU have to do with it? How did YOU influence it?

The ONLY thing the population has directly done has been to vote Brexit. Its stupid to say that is was actually voting the tories in because, at the time, the big Brexit picture was barely started. If you want to take that stance we should just blame the big bang.

The action which has started all this happening is the Brexit vote. Frankly anyone who denies it is probably proof that referenda are a poor idea. By all means you can have your view and Brexit might be right but this result is something that you should have seen coming. If you didn't think what might happen, you voted with your eyes closed.

motorguy

Remain

x12yhp wrote: »

For goodness sake! We are seeing things changing. They are not good here. What did YOU have to do with it? How did YOU influence it?

The ONLY thing the population has directly done has been to vote Brexit. Its stupid to say that is was actually voting the tories in because, at the time, the big Brexit picture was barely started. If you want to take that stance we should just blame the big bang.

The action which has started all this happening is the Brexit vote. Frankly anyone who denies it is probably proof that referenda are a poor idea. By all means you can have your view and Brexit might be right but this result is something that you should have seen coming. If you didn't think what might happen, you voted with your eyes closed.

The last time i looked, we hadnt actually left the EU?

Therefore any "turbulence" is due to uncertainty surrounding the exit, NOT Brexit itself

The market doesnt like uncertainty, therefore the £ has dipped.

I've no doubt we will continue to see short term pain, and possibly medium term pain, however i think the medium to long term outlook is much better than if we staying in the EU.

Its like breaking up with a long term girlfriend who'd got a bit too high maintenance. Its painful in the short term to leave, but you'll be in a better position in the medium term because of it.

x12yhp

motorguy wrote: »

The last time i looked, we hadnt actually left the EU?

Therefore any "turbulence" is due to uncertainty surrounding the exit, NOT Brexit itself

The market doesnt like uncertainty, therefore the £ has dipped.

I've no doubt we will continue to see short term pain, and possibly medium term pain, however i think the medium to long term outlook is much better than if we staying in the EU.

Its like breaking up with a long term girlfriend who'd got a bit too high maintenance. Its painful in the short term to leave, but you'll be in a better position in the medium term because of it.

Oh come on!!!!!

The turbulence exists because the UK voted for brexit. The uncertainty exists because the UK voted for brexit. If the idea of leaving the EU had never been raised, if the UK population had never voted in favour of it, sterling would be dramatically stronger and we would not be suffering the results of uncertainty.

This is all down to the vote to leave. You can argue whatever you like but, had we remained, none of this would be happening. That means that everyone who voted to leave has to take partial responsibility at this point.

As for the future - sorry but the world doesn't agree with you yet. I don't disagree but I cannot agree. What evidence do you have that we will be better off?

Look at it this way, the current experience should make it clear to everyone that, if there is an opportunity to profit, currency speculators will take it. Right? So, that being the case, anyone who truly believe the UK will start to thrive any time soon would be piling their dollars or euros into sterling. They would know that it won't be long until the UK goes from strength to strength, the pound will strengthen and their newly purchased pounds will soar in value. Simple economics. But... have you heard of anyone doing that? Oddly enough, I haven't either. The reason is simple, no sensible investor can claim to have enough information to put a bet on the UK 'doing good' anytime soon. That is not to say it will not happen, but the market (which is driven by people who know a damn lot more than you do) is still pointing towards further pain and no forseeable improvement.

Frankly, I am going to give up posting on this topic as I feel like blood will soon be drawn from all this banging of my head against the wall.

motorguy

Remain

x12yhp wrote: »

Look at it this way, the current experience should make it clear to everyone that, if there is an opportunity to profit, currency speculators will take it. Right? So, that being the case, anyone who truly believe the UK will start to thrive any time soon would be piling their dollars or euros into sterling. They would know that it won't be long until the UK goes from strength to strength, the pound will strengthen and their newly purchased pounds will soar in value. Simple economics. But... have you heard of anyone doing that? Oddly enough, I haven't either. The reason is simple, no sensible investor can claim to have enough information to put a bet on the UK 'doing good' anytime soon. That is not to say it will not happen, but the market (which is driven by people who know a damn lot more than you do) is still pointing towards further pain and no forseeable improvement.

Uh huh. And 2+ years is an awful long time in the currency market, so why take a chance? They're backing off sterling because of the uncertainty that the Brexit vote has brought, not because of Brexit itself.

x12yhp wrote: »

Frankly, I am going to give up posting on this topic as I feel like blood will soon be drawn from all this banging of my head against the wall.

So your view is right, and noone else is allowed a view unless its the same as your view?

If you want to have a negative outlook and be a doom and gloom merchant on the whole thing, thats your perrogative, however dont expect everyone to come down there with you, and then throw your toys about when they dont.

Its only a forum thread - keep your hair on!

motorguy

Remain

x12yhp wrote: »

By all means you can have your view and Brexit might be right but this result is something that you should have seen coming. If you didn't think what might happen, you voted with your eyes closed.

Is anyone here saying the current turbulence ISNT what they thought was coming?

I'm not.

saverbuyer

Leave

So the UK has a 7% current account deficit, £1.6 trillion public sector debt, £450 billion in quantitative easing (printing money) and 0.5%/0.25% interest rates for the past 7 years.


It wasn't a matter of if the pound would tank, it was a matter of when. All Brexit has done is move it forward slightly. The Bank of England wants some price inflation, the Uk government wants some price inflation, they need to inflate that massive debt away somehow.


Now, on Brexit. I'm an exporter, I sell the majority of my widgets outside the UK. I've noticed raw material price inflation of around 10%, I noticed price inflation of around 10-20% when I was previously getting 2.05 dollars to the pound in 2007 and then got 1.45 in 2008.


I've also increased my sales prices by around 20% in the past 3 months. I've experienced zero difficulty (to date) selling at the new price. The devaluation in the pound has been fantastic in this regard.


Oh and I've noticed, the people I talk to who seem most anxious on Brexit are those in academia. Understandable, I guess, if the majority of your funding comes from the EU (Though on average I read that research funding from the EU is 15%). I'd like to think the funding will still be available. I understand any commitments pre-brexit will be honored by the UK government.

motorguy

Remain

New report out today from a leading think tank - the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR)


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37838087


Probably most interesting is the comment - "While we expect this to be only a temporary phenomenon, it will nonetheless weigh on the purchasing power of consumers over the next couple of years."