Brexit vote

uk1

BobQ wrote: »

I suspect it will revert to CPI uprating

Thanks.

For the reasons I previously gave, I think it highly improbable. But let's assume you are correct. It would probably still make no difference to the cost.

If the remainers fears are fullfilled ie economic apocalypse on exit then it would proably make no difference to pensioners would it. In fact they may actually be better off.

If things are as bad as those fear then the UK would need to raise and borrow cash in an environment where the markets would wish to charge the UK more. This would put up interest rates. This would increase inflation. In that situation CPI would presumably be higher than 2.5%. And pensioners would then get some interest at last on their savings as well as CPI.



Jeff

Malthusian

Regardless of what the polls are saying I find it unlikely that pensioners will vote Leave in droves. If Brexit does result in an economic downturn (I don't know if it will or won't but everyone seems to think it will) the elderly have more to lose and nothing to gain. Any long-term economic benefit will largely pass them by, they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs, lack of school places, etc.

I believe it was largely the elderly who voted for Scotland to remain in the UK and I think the same will happen with this one.

atush

uk1 wrote: »

I think you may have missed the point.

General elections are largely decided by pensioners or people close to pension age. Personally I see no serious manifesto promising to remove the triple lock being a winning one ..... do you?

There is only a chance of ths happening of somewhere between extremely low and zero within the next few years if at all, and I think most people "get that". And the more the remainers keep repeating the same garbage answers irrespective of the question actually asked, and the more threats from the Germans we hear, and the more rediculous gloom we're promised, the more stubborn Brits will become and the more likely an out result. And the least likely group you can bullsh1t or bully are the more experienced group in society.

It rather shows how desperate he has become because he is actually increasing the out vote rather than reducing it.

Jeff

No I havent missed the point, you have. The triple lock may no longer be affordable if the economy tanks. But we dont know what will happen.

uk1

atush wrote: »

No I havent missed the point, you have. The triple lock may no longer be affordable if the economy tanks. But we dont know what will happen.

Repeating the same thing again really doesn't make it more sensible does it.

What you haven't seemed to have grasped is that you cannot make laws when you are in opposition and not in government. No sesnible MP would vote to hack off pensioners by "cutting" their pensions.

You do understand that don't you.

Jeff

adindas

Malthusian wrote: »

Regardless of what the polls are saying I find it unlikely that pensioners will vote Leave in droves. If Brexit does result in an economic downturn (I don't know if it will or won't but everyone seems to think it will) the elderly have more to lose and nothing to gain. Any long-term economic benefit will largely pass them by, they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs, lack of school places, etc.

I believe it was largely the elderly who voted for Scotland to remain in the UK and I think the same will happen with this one.

I could see your argument on elderly voter. Immigration control on long term has very little effect on them as they are not going to live enough to see the benefit or the drawbacks of any exist. All they could see know is benefit e.g easy holiday or retirement in Europe.

But some people are voting based on national interest rather than individual interest. They also think about their offspring in the future.

Based on your avatar, you are Malthusian school named after Thomas Robert Malthus ? So I could guess you will vote for leaving ....

I have seen "Cornucopia Avatar" here. He will be voting for Remain on based what he believes ?

I wish both of you are arguing here like it has always been between Malthusian vs Cornucopia since a few decades ago and no school of thinking are offering real solution but problem.

I wish we are living in a world away from all politics.

uk1

To be completely honest I think what happens on the 23rd may well be moot anyway.

Within the next few years (at latest) one of the major EU members will be forced to have a referendum and both the French and Germans are more anti EU than we are. The right wing anti-Merkel swing will win the next German elections by simply offering a referendum. The Germans are extremely upset at having to pay for Greece, Spain and Italy's lifestyle and with the hordes of refuges swamping them.

A vote to leave by either the French or the Germans will bring the whole project to an end and it will start the retreat process back to a common market rather than a political entity.

We also haven't seen how Merkel plans to relocate all her open ended commitment to take all refugees. No other states are stepping up to her "instruction" to take "their fair share" and it wouldn't suprise me if she started quietly giving "refugees" a German passport at which point they could then take themselves to any EU country they wish. Once these people start moving around any one of the EU countries could start the insatiable pressure for their referenda.

It is in my view inevitable and simply a matter of time that the EU reverts to a common market.

Jeff

bigadaj

uk1 wrote: »

To be completely honest I think what happens on the 23rd may well be moot anyway.

Within the next few years (at latest) one of the major EU members will be forced to have a referendum and both the French and Germans are more anti EU than we are. The right wing anti-Merkel swing will win the next German elections by simply offering a referendum. The Germans are extremely upset at having to pay for Greece, Spain and Italy's lifestyle and with the hordes of refuges swamping them.

A vote to leave by either the French or the Germans will bring the whole project to an end and it will start the retreat process back to a common market rather than a political entity.

We also haven't seen how Merkel plans to relocate all her open ended commitment to take all refugees. No other states are stepping up to her "instruction" to take "their fair share" and it wouldn't suprise me if she started quietly giving "refugees" a German passport at which point they could then take themselves to any EU country they wish. Once these people start moving around any one of the EU countries could start the insatiable pressure for their referenda.

It is in my view inevitable and simply a matter of time that the EU reverts to a common market.

Jeff

Germany is already issuing passports to an extent, which allows people to then move through the EU.

We had a thread on here I think, whereby an individual was complaining they hadn't received benefits in the uk whilst they were out of work for a few months. They said they had recent,y arrived and when question said they had come from Germany. When questioned on why they didn't claim benefits in Germany they stated they thought it 'wouldn't be right as they had only spent a few days there' seemingly moving from outside the European Union to the UK.

uk1

bigadaj wrote: »

Germany is already issuing passports to an extent, which allows people to then move through the EU.

We had a thread on here I think, whereby an individual was complaining they hadn't received benefits in the uk whilst they were out of work for a few months. They said they had recent,y arrived and when question said they had come from Germany. When questioned on why they didn't claim benefits in Germany they stated they thought it 'wouldn't be right as they had only spent a few days there' seemingly moving from outside the European Union to the UK.

Additionally, all the loud focus has been on Turkey's entry but what people are worried about is the free movement of all those to relocate accross the EU.

What seems to have been missed is that all Turks are going to be given visas to travel throughout Europe without bothering with membership. It is interesting how quiet this topic has been. I wounder how it would change the vote if more people understood.

The European Union is getting closer to granting Turks visa-free travel to Europe, but talks on this will continue until at least October, European Council President Donald Tusk said in an interview with German newspaper Bild published on Monday.

Asked when Turks would be given visa freedom, Tusk said: "When they have fulfilled all of the conditions without exception."

He added: "The negotiations will certainly last until October but we're getting ever closer."

The deal to give Turks visa-free travel in return for reducing the flow of illegal migrants to the bloc has been held up by a disagreement over Turkey's anti-terror laws, which some in Europe see as too broad. Turkey says its needs the law to fight its multiple security threats.

Last week Turkey said it expected a positive outcome in coming days in talks with the European Union about visa-free travel for Turks

How can it possibly be "democratic" for the EU to be negotiating visas that will entitle Truks to come to the UK by right. I think most Brits would find this chilling.

Jeff

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-turkey-visas-idUSKCN0YZ0LK

harz99

Malthusian wrote: »

Regardless of what the polls are saying I find it unlikely that pensioners will vote Leave in droves. If Brexit does result in an economic downturn (I don't know if it will or won't but everyone seems to think it will) the elderly have more to lose and nothing to gain. Any long-term economic benefit will largely pass them by, they aren't worried about immigrants taking their jobs, lack of school places, etc.

I believe it was largely the elderly who voted for Scotland to remain in the UK and I think the same will happen with this one.

I think you are wrong. My wife and I are pensioners and every pensioner we talk to whether F2F or on social media is/has/will vote Leave. Most of us want to return to when GB was Great, in charge of our destiny, and making our own laws etc.


Yes, the elderly had considerable influence in Scotland, they also (apart from a few Nats) wanted to remain part of the GB they grew up in, very similar in fact to our wishes, in this case I can see the Scottish elderly voting Leave to achieve the same result.

uk1

harz99 wrote: »

I think you are wrong. My wife and I are pensioners and every pensioner we talk to whether F2F or on social media is/has/will vote Leave. Most of us want to return to when GB was Great, in charge of our destiny, and making our own laws etc.


Yes, the elderly had considerable influence in Scotland, they also (apart from a few Nats) wanted to remain part of the GB they grew up in, very similar in fact to our wishes, in this case I can see the Scottish elderly voting Leave to achieve the same result.

Of course you are right. I have yet to have a conversation with anyone of this age that is considering voting in.

I think another thing that people overlook is that older people have tended to be a generation that recognises that you often have to have short term pain for long term gain. This is the generation that sacrificed today for tommorow. They were savers. They saved money "for a rainy day". Later generations tend to be different. They tend to borrow for today and pay tommorow. Saving for things you need is rarer. It is instant gratification.

That is why older people will think "what is good for us in the long run even if it might be tough for a while" whilst younger people might tend to ask "what is good for me today".

Jeff