The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Do tell us why then ? Why is this GE not good news for the SNP ?

Its potentially bad news for the SNP, as it gives the Scottish people (three years early!) a chance to vote on Sturgeon's and the SNP's record at Holyrood and also test with the volatile Scottish electorate, her risky tactic of coupling Brexit and Scottish independence together before we formally leave the EU.
Drop your blind obedience to everything SNP for just a moment, and acknowledge that there is fair to middling chance that this GE could be highly damaging for the SNP and ergo Scottish independence.
Shakey, no one would think any less of you if you did.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What rug's been pulled ? I'm not sure you even know.

Sturgeon will put an indy ref in the manifesto. She'll get another majority, along with the one she already has in Holyrood as well as taking loads of council seats next month.

Patrick Harvie has just announced that the Greens likely won't be standing any candidates in Dumfries and Galloway. That's Mundell's seat. He's in on a majority of 700 votes. Greens split the vote with the SNP in 2015 with their vote share.

In short, things won't change in Scotland much. Do you really and honestly think that the SNP losing a seat or two makes any difference whatsoever to an indy ref vote coming ? Wake up a bit. The Tories landsliding in England till 2022 will seal the deal. With the Scottish Greens stepping aside to let the SNP landslide again in Scotland.

End game. Independence v's the Conservatives.

The Greens screwed the electorate.

Expect them to put in an increasingly poor showing.

wotsthat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Do tell us why then ? Why is this GE not good news for the SNP ?

The risk is asymmetric. They're more likely to lose 10 seats whereas it would be impossible for them to gain 10 seats. You mention just getting a majority is sufficient when the reality is that would represent a disaster.

noodle_doodle

The Greens want a tory-free scotland? Are they planning an Amin-style expulsion or is it just a straight genocide?

noodle_doodle

wotsthat wrote: »

The risk is asymmetric. They're more likely to lose 10 seats whereas it would be impossible for them to gain 10 seats. You mention just getting a majority is sufficient when the reality is that would represent a disaster.

Agree, 2015 was high tide for the Scottish Nasty Party. Scottish Labour had collapsed and didn't have a leader anyone outside their house had heard of, emotions among the 45'ers were riding high less than 8 months after the referendum which the snp capitalised on, the Lib Dems got voted out for being in coalition with the tories by people who don't understand coalitions, and the tories were still getting blamed for everything the snp screwed up.

Since then, the conservatives actually look viable again north of the border, the SNP haven't done anything with their MPs, they've lost their Holyrood majority, and they look increasingly one-eyed on independence, and the lib dems will be looking to pick up a good chunk of bremainer votes similar to the way the snp got the vote from the last referendum (and north of the border, specifically bremainers who want to stay part of the uk - it seems illogical to me to screech to be part of one union but not another). Labour are absolutely donald ducked though.

antrobus

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

..You failed to understand that the reality is that MP numbers are reducing from 650 to 600, so an increase in English MP's was not possible whilst maintaining the number of Scottish MP's, and a straight reduction in Scottish MP's is therefore the same thing looking to achieve the same aim of reducing Scottish over-representation in Westminster - which was my original point all along....

The reduction was not to take effect until 2020. I'd guess now it will be 2022. Unless the new post June government decides differently.

But basically yes, Scotland is over-represented in Parliament. As is Wales, and by a greater margin, I believe.

TrickyTree83

antrobus wrote: »

The reduction was not to take effect until 2020. I'd guess now it will be 2022. Unless the new post June government decides differently.

But basically yes, Scotland is over-represented in Parliament. As is Wales, and by a greater margin, I believe.

Yes, with a reduction on the horizon in what world is an increase in English MP's, even proportionally, possible without a reduction in MP's for Scotland, Wales, etc..?

I felt like I was speaking a language they didn't understand.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

What rug's been pulled ? I'm not sure you even know.

Oh trust me shakey, I know.

Sturgeon will put an indy ref in the manifesto. She'll get another majority, along with the one she already has in Holyrood as well as taking loads of council seats next month.

I think we can take it as read that the SNP will forever and a day have a manifesto that is all about independence.

It might be nice if it contained something else around running the bleeding country but never mind.

Patrick Harvie has just announced that the Greens likely won't be standing any candidates in Dumfries and Galloway. That's Mundell's seat. He's in on a majority of 700 votes. Greens split the vote with the SNP in 2015 with their vote share.

Excellent, so we can see that the principled Green Party, sitting up there on the moral high ground are actually nothing more than an opportunistic rabble who will sell their beliefs out for a sniff of power. I wonder what deal they got from the snp to take this action.

Still at least we can now dispel the myth that they're anything other than just another self-serving party.

In short, things won't change in Scotland much. Do you really and honestly think that the SNP losing a seat or two makes any difference whatsoever to an indy ref vote coming ? Wake up a bit. The Tories landsliding in England till 2022 will seal the deal. With the Scottish Greens stepping aside to let the SNP landslide again in Scotland.

End game. Independence v's the Conservatives.

I think the only thing that will make a difference to an Indy vote is if the Scottish electorate stand up and tell the snp to shut up about one.
So you'll have it when the Scottish people (I.e not just the snp) actually want one *and* when it fits into the timetable of the rUK.

This is a uk GE election for us to hopefully get a strong uk government who can get on with things instead of being hampered by single issue protest groups.

IveSeenTheLight

noodle_doodle wrote: »

Agree, 2015 was high tide for the Scottish Nasty Party.

Charming

noodle_doodle wrote: »

A Scottish Labour had collapsed and didn't have a leader anyone outside their house had heard of,

.........

Labour are absolutely donald ducked though.

Agreed, even the Scottish Labour Leader Kezia Dugdale lost her seat, only to be awarded a place through the AMS scheme.

noodle_doodle wrote: »

the Lib Dems got voted out for being in coalition with the tories by people who don't understand coalitions

I understand the support for Lib Dems are still waining in Scotland

noodle_doodle wrote: »

Since then, the conservatives actually look viable again north of the border,

Its true, they have regained some position in Scotland with the Leader Ruth Davidson winning an election for the first time in 2016 with a lead of 610 votes.

I can't stand the woman and it will be interesting to see if she maintains, increases or indeed loses the Edinburgh Central constituency.

Her position reported recently and talked about in these forums on the "rape-clause" issue will not have helped her this week

noodle_doodle wrote: »

the SNP haven't done anything with their MPs, they've lost their Holyrood majority,

The things is, I recall reading that the constituencies drawn up and the AMS system is designed to ensure that no party has an overall majority.

The fact that the SNP had a majority at one point is a complete abnormality and was deeply unexpected.

noodle_doodle wrote: »

and they look increasingly one-eyed on independence, and the lib dems will be looking to pick up a good chunk of bremainer votes similar to the way the snp got the vote from the last referendum (and north of the border, specifically bremainers who want to stay part of the uk - it seems illogical to me to screech to be part of one union but not another).

Potentially, but not conclusive

noodle_doodle wrote: »

Labour are absolutely donald ducked though.

Yes and historically this is a strange position for Scotland.
Its why the SNP have risen over the years as Labour faultered.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Yes, with a reduction on the horizon in what world is an increase in English MP's, even proportionally, possible without a reduction in MP's for Scotland, Wales, etc..?

I felt like I was speaking a language they didn't understand.

I would have been happy to discuss the proposed reduction going forward once you had accepted under the current terms and guidelines, Scotland was correctly represented and England was under represented.

I'm glad you managed to "see the light" last night on this point