The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I would say "any loss" would be pessimistic.

They will get a thumping. No more than 35 seats, probably less.

Behave yourself Tricky. Little will change with this GE in Scotland apart from possibly a few seats changing hands. But whether the SNP get 56, 59 or 48 it doesn't matter as long as they get a majority of them.

Sturgeon is 100% going to put an explicit independence referendum in their manifesto, and without a doubt will still scoop most Scottish seats again.

Still, independence cannot now be delivered without a referendum. Anything else offends the people’s inchoate sense of how the game should be played. But since the UK government has hitherto suggested the SNP lack a mandate for a second referendum – having lost seats at last year’s Holyrood election – it seems modestly idiosyncratic to hand them an opportunity to renew and reaffirm that mandate in June.

Because, make no mistake, that is what the Prime Minister has done this morning. Talk about how the SNP need to win 50 percent or more of the Scottish vote is just that: talk. That’s not how the game is played. If it were then any government failing to win 50 percent of the popular vote would have its mandate questioned. But that it not how we organise matters in what we can still, at least for now, call this country.



[If the SNP win a majority of Scottish seats at a general election that is in effect a vote to decide whether there could or should be another independence referendum then that, by god, is a mandate. The will of the Scottish people, for better or worse, will have been made clear. If you have the votes, you have the votes.



That does not, of course, require the Prime Minister to accept or agree to schedule a second independence referendum but, should the election pan out like this, she has immeasurably strengthened the moral case the SNP will make to argue for a second referendum. She won’t be able to hide behind talk of ‘mandates’ any longer.

Theresa May burnt that argument this morning. She did so as a Conservative, not as a Unionist. That is her choice, her prerogative. But it remains something she did not have to do.

Mrs May cannot win a mandate for herself while then denying a mandate to the party that wins the Scottish portion of this election.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/general-election-will-vote-scottish-independence/

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I bet Nicola was giving everyone the hair dryer treatment for missing this tactical play.

They've been expecting it, from what I've read. 30 Tory seats in election fraud being investigated by the CPS was going to blow up any minute.

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They've been expecting it, from what I've read. 30 Tory seats in election fraud being investigated by the CPS was going to blow up any minute.

Remind me, how many MPs have the SNP lost since the last election?

mollycat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I've been at the hairdressers all day being made fabulous. This GE is also fabulous news for the SNP.

Doubt that.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

They've been expecting it, from what I've read. 30 Tory seats in election fraud being investigated by the CPS was going to blow up any minute.

Well I told you about three months ago there'd be a GE before any independence ref.

I think we all know that the rug's been well and truly pulled.

Fortunately for the snp, all those EU migrants and 16 year olds who were guaranteed to vote for independence will also be voting snp in the GE aswell.

Oh.

Hey ho, them's the breaks. Looks like the snp are going to have to actually campaign for votes based on their (appalling) record rather than rely on people who either don't really care or don't know any better.

noodle_doodle

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But whether the SNP get 56, 59 or 48 it doesn't matter as long as they get a majority of them.

Given the SNP generally need around 45% to win a FPTP seat, you'd be happy they couldn't even get that in half the constituencies? That sounds disastrous imo.

kabayiri

mollycat wrote: »

Doubt that.

Not at all.

I can easily believe that a woman can spend a full day at the hairdressers

If there were a handbag and shoe stall by the reception desk I would never see my better half for a week !

mollycat

kabayiri wrote: »

Not at all.

I can easily believe that a woman can spend a full day at the hairdressers

If there were a handbag and shoe stall by the reception desk I would never see my better half for a week !

I know; I meant the other bit.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Well I told you about three months ago there'd be a GE before any independence ref.

I think we all know that the rug's been well and truly pulled.

Fortunately for the snp, all those EU migrants and 16 year olds who were guaranteed to vote for independence will also be voting snp in the GE aswell.

Oh.

Hey ho, them's the breaks. Looks like the snp are going to have to actually campaign for votes based on their (appalling) record rather than rely on people who either don't really care or don't know any better.

What rug's been pulled ? I'm not sure you even know.

Sturgeon will put an indy ref in the manifesto. She'll get another majority, along with the one she already has in Holyrood as well as taking loads of council seats next month.

Patrick Harvie has just announced that the Greens likely won't be standing any candidates in Dumfries and Galloway. That's Mundell's seat. He's in on a majority of 700 votes. Greens split the vote with the SNP in 2015 with their vote share.

In short, things won't change in Scotland much. Do you really and honestly think that the SNP losing a seat or two makes any difference whatsoever to an indy ref vote coming ? Wake up a bit. The Tories landsliding in England till 2022 will seal the deal. With the Scottish Greens stepping aside to let the SNP landslide again in Scotland.

End game. Independence v's the Conservatives.

Shakethedisease

mollycat wrote: »

I know; I meant the other bit.

Do tell us why then ? Why is this GE not good news for the SNP ?