The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

kabayiri

antrobus wrote: »

A 9.5% fiscal deficit requires immediate action. Either this hypothetical independent Scotland implements the necessary tax increases and/or spending cuts to get it under control, or it defaults and and implements the necessary tax increases and/or spending cuts ordered by the IMF.

The EU already has one Greece. It doesn't want another one.:)

This overlooks the obvious.

I think that should Scotland vote to Leave, the narrative will switch to a golden goodbye discussion with rUK.

A sweetened deal to leave is the quickest route for iScotland achieving short term funds.

It can not rely on proceeds from taxation. That won't flow in for a year or two.

You can see the narrative underpinnings. There is a deeply held belief that the UK owes Scotland much for decades of oil development.

Things like the submarine base would become bartering tools in the negotiations.

I doubt anything would be clear cut, and the rUK might not be in a healthy position to meet these demands.

kabayiri

zagubov wrote: »

Let's not forget that EFTA doesn't insist on joining the Euro, makes joining Schengen an option not a requirement, and EEA membership doesn't require all of the 27 countries to agree, as Croatia's membership ably demonstrates.

This is all true, which is why I don't understand Sturgeon making public proclamations about remaining at the heart of Europe?

Joining something like EFTA might be seen as backtracking amongst her new European partners.

We focus (obviously) on Scottish interests here, but I wonder what the European desire for courting Scotland is?

zagubov

I don't know. I've always thought that being in the EEA/EFTA would be massively more in Scotland's interests, and indeed the UK's.
I suppose the EU would gain more food and energy security, and with Russia able to turn the taps off, that's a consideration for energy-hungry Germany to consider.

TrickyTree83

zagubov wrote: »

I don't know. I've always thought that being in the EEA/EFTA would be massively more in Scotland's interests, and indeed the UK's.
I suppose the EU would gain more food and energy security, and with Russia able to turn the taps off, that's a consideration for energy-hungry Germany to consider.

"Taken out if the EU against its will". You're in dodgy territory if your angling for an independence referendum that doesn't result in the regional result of the EU referendum being respected. The argument that is being used to leverage the EU ref result is dicey at best.

It certainly exposes the pro independence support as wanting independence by any means since eea/efta is not what Scottish people voted for in any vote so far. There is zero evidence for this route having support amongst the majority of the electorate.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

This is all true, which is why I don't understand Sturgeon making public proclamations about remaining at the heart of Europe?

Joining something like EFTA might be seen as backtracking amongst her new European partners.

We focus (obviously) on Scottish interests here, but I wonder what the European desire for courting Scotland is?

You're all forgetting one thing though. May's 'implementation phase' is likely to be along the lines if not explicitly EEA/EFTA for a time. Scotland still as part of the UK will move to this along with the rest of the UK.

Scotland votes for independence - Scotland stays within EEA/EFTA or whatever implementation measures rUK takes over the next few years, still within the Single Market. From here Scotland can either rejoin the EU or stay as she is.

rUK leaves altogether ( unless there's a fudge from Brexit means Brexit ). So all this discussion over what Scotland does is moot for the moment. In short we'll all be moving to EEA/EFTA in some form. Scotland can stay there. rUK can't if May/next PM really intends to follow through with FOM control etc etc

Sturgeon won't be seen as backtracking no.

TrickyTree83

So are the pro independence supporters just ignoring my post regarding article 139 and 140 of TFEU?

No legalese interpretation, no bias, it was an honest reflection of what has been written and what it would take to circumvent them.

If you're going to ignore it can the rest if us assume that argument has been put to pasture, that EU membership and Eurozone membership go hand in hand, and the fiscal compact means a deficit reduction of ~6%+ of Scottish GDP is required to fulfil the SNP 2016 manifesto pledge?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're all forgetting one thing though. May's 'implementation phase' is likely to be along the lines if not explicitly EEA/EFTA for a time. Scotland still as part of the UK will move to this along with the rest of the UK.

Scotland votes for independence - Scotland stays within EEA/EFTA or whatever implementation measures rUK takes over the next few years, still within the Single Market. From here Scotland can either rejoin the EU or stay as she is.

rUK leaves altogether ( unless there's a fudge from Brexit means Brexit ). So all this discussion over what Scotland does is moot for the moment. In short we'll all be moving to EEA/EFTA in some form. Scotland can stay there. rUK can't if May/next PM really intends to follow through with FOM control etc etc

Sturgeon won't be seen as backtracking no.

There is no inheritance. Whatever the UK decides and negotiates is as the UK. The treaties are quite clear on this. Whether Scotland would be allowed the same is a political question between the EU, the EEA and Scotland, and not a foregone conclusion.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

There is no inheritance. Whatever the UK decides and negotiates is as the UK. The treaties are quite clear on this. Whether Scotland would be allowed the same is a political question between the EU, the EEA and Scotland, and not a foregone conclusion.

May's phased implemetation period covers the whole UK yes ? Scotland goes with the UK on the first phase still within the Single Market. Votes for independence, stays there and goes no further.

May's deal/transition phase only covers the whole of the UK until Scotland votes to leave the UK. Obviously. Sturgeon takes over talks for Scotland from that point onwards there's no question about that.

There's still a way to go with this and many things can change but as long as Scotland is within the UK then she moves with the UK throughout all the phases May gets in place in order to leave the EU. With NI and Gibraltar also in question the first phase is very likely to be still within the Single Market.. for a time. If Scotland votes out of the UK, Scotland stays there which is what Sturgeon wants as a priority ( as do NI and Gibraltar ). The EU have made explicit references to NI, Gibraltar and Scotland within their negotiating guidelines recognising their votes to remain and that special measures might be needed.

Should deficits and joining the Euro regarding your last post ( and I don't agree with you by the way but just for talking's sake ) become over riding factors in rejoining the EU. Then Scotland can stay where she is within EEA/EFTA/Single Market.

But you're out.

Enterprise_1701C

kabayiri wrote: »

This overlooks the obvious.

I think that should Scotland vote to Leave, the narrative will switch to a golden goodbye discussion with rUK.

A sweetened deal to leave is the quickest route for iScotland achieving short term funds.

It can not rely on proceeds from taxation. That won't flow in for a year or two.

You can see the narrative underpinnings. There is a deeply held belief that the UK owes Scotland much for decades of oil development.

Things like the submarine base would become bartering tools in the negotiations.

I doubt anything would be clear cut, and the rUK might not be in a healthy position to meet these demands.

I can't see there being a golden handshake in any form

There are contingency plans for the submarine Base, drawn up before the once in a generation referendum, we certainly would not want to leave the submarines in a hostile foreign country and the extra employment it would provide down here would be most welcome.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

May's phased implemetation period covers the whole UK yes ? Scotland goes with the UK on the first phase still within the Single Market. Votes for independence, stays there and goes no further.

May's deal/transition phase only covers the whole of the UK until Scotland votes to leave the UK. Obviously. Sturgeon takes over talks for Scotland from that point onwards there's no question about that.

There's still a way to go with this and many things can change but as long as Scotland is within the UK then she moves with the UK throughout all the phases May gets in place in order to leave the EU. With NI and Gibraltar also in question the first phase is very likely to be still within the Single Market.. for a time. If Scotland votes out of the UK, Scotland stays there which is what Sturgeon wants as a priority ( as do NI and Gibraltar ). The EU have made explicit references to NI, Gibraltar and Scotland within their negotiating guidelines recognising their votes to remain and that special measures might be needed.

Should deficits and joining the Euro regarding your last post ( and I don't agree with you by the way but just for talking's sake ) become over riding factors in rejoining the EU. Then Scotland can stay where she is within EEA/EFTA/Single Market.

But you're out.

Scotland will have to apply for EAA membership in it's own right, it won't just be bestowed or inherited because you were part of the UK. Also assuming your statement of a transitional deal comes to fruition also.

Regarding article 139 and 140, it's not me saying it. It's the treaty itself. So it would not be me that you disagree with there it's the EU treaty.

And as I previously pointed out an independent Scotland would be looking to respect the will of the people no? Therefore EEA/EFTA is not acceptable as the Scottish people have not expressed a will for that relationship. As far as expressions from the electorate go it's joining the EU proper or remaining in the UK depending on which vote you wish to honour. I know which the SNP and Nicola will choose and that according to the TFEU it states iScotland must use the euro and comply with the fiscal compact.