The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

kabayiri

sss555s wrote: »

It's quite hard to read past the first paragraph...



Thanks for the conformation by your trusted source :beer:

This is all positioning before the real negotiations start.

If you believe that somewhere like Scotland should be allowed an independence referendum, then the same applies IMO for Gibraltar.

Do you think Spain would be balanced in recognising newly independent Scotland and newly independent Gibraltar?

Rinoa

sss555s wrote: »

It's quite hard to read past the first paragraph...



Thanks for the conformation by your trusted source :beer:

If I were a scots nat I'd be a tad concerned at the qualification 'initially' Not exactly wholehearted support.

But if the Spanish are willing, Theresa May let's you hold a referendum in around 2021, the people of Scotland vote 'YES', you overcome the deficit problem, agree to join the Euro and pledge to be ruled by Brussels for evermore, you may become a member of the EU (where most of your exports don't go) by around 2024.

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Also from your link, the piece directly before your quote:

. he stressed that Madrid would not welcome the disintegration of the UK.
He also said Edinburgh would have to apply for membership, a process fraught with uncertainty that is likely to take several years.

I'd bet my house on the fact that 'HE' didn't actually say anything about the uncertainty of the process, and it's the author of the article's personal opinion on the matter.

But whatever, it's a central plank of one of the main unionist argument crashing down. We can debate forever the semantics of intitally, or process. But Spain have come out today officially saying they won't veto an independent Scotland.

As it stands with the UK Scotland is out of the EU altogether, with independence the worst that can happen is an opportunity to stay in the Single Market as seamlessly as possible, with a route back into the EU relatively quickly should Scots voters want it ( which seemed to be the case last June ).

And were people like Michael Howard and Fallon really alluding to going to war over Gibraltar this morning on tv ? My goodness.. we're only 4 days in after triggering Article 50.

TrickyTree83

sss555s wrote: »

Looks like you called it right shake!

No wonder Tricky is floundering

Floundering?

I'm probably the least wishy washy poster here. Empiricism helps people to not look foolish.

.string.

Spain is rattling the bars all over the place at the moment,

Here's another detail of what is reported to have been said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu

Madrid is keen not to fuel Catalonia’s desire for independence. “We don’t want it [Scottish independence] to happen,” he said. “But if it happens legally and constitutionally, we would not block it. We don’t encourage the breakup of any member states, because we think the future goes in a different direction.”

"Legally and constitutionally" - ---. Back to reality - any referendum needs to be legal and constitutional, it was always thus.

Waiting for May's response to see if she agrees that the SNP can hold a legal and constitutional referendum at the wrong time.

elantan

kabayiri wrote: »

This is all positioning before the real negotiations start.

If you believe that somewhere like Scotland should be allowed an independence referendum, then the same applies IMO for Gibraltar.

Do you think Spain would be balanced in recognising newly independent Scotland and newly independent Gibraltar?

Now is not the time for dealing with Gibraltar ... later on when everything is settled Gibraltar should be dealt with :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Spain is rattling the bars all over the place at the moment,

Here's another detail of what is reported to have been said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu



"Legally and constitutionally" - ---. Back to reality - any referendum needs to be legal and constitutional, it was always thus.

Waiting for May's response to see if she agrees that the SNP can hold a legal and constitutional referendum at the wrong time.

She'll say No string. Now is not the time etc etc. The Scottish Govt will either have to go around her and the Tories, bypass them altogether and go over their heads..or else just wait for a bit and perhaps see the pressure getting heaped on for one to happen.. especially if the polls start moving in Scotland with Article 50 now actually having been triggered..

But whatever they do will be absolutely legal and above board. They've come too far now in order to waste all their gains in the last few decades to do anything that wouldn't be considered above board and straight down the line.

However, Scots at some point must be able to express their wishes peacefully and democratically via the ballot box in some form. There's no way around that either for May, and neither will Sturgeon be hanging about for years waiting. Not with the mandate she already has from last years May election. We'll find out what the First Minister has to say after the Easter hols.

The focus so far has been on if the Scottish Govt can hold a legally valid referendum... I do wonder if Sturgeon will throw the ball back to May in court and ask May to prove legally and constitutionally why Scots shouldn't be allowed a legally valid referendum. (<--- this is just my musing so don't take it as anything else ).

kabayiri

I bet Nicola Sturgeon is busy scanning the history books to see if there was a time when Scotland was the property of Spain.

I mean, it's like a golden ticket back in the EU isn't it?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I'd bet my house on the fact that 'HE' didn't actually say anything about the uncertainty of the process, and it's the author of the article's personal opinion on the matter.

But whatever, it's a central plank of one of the main unionist argument crashing down. We can debate forever the semantics of intitally, or process. But Spain have come out today officially saying they won't veto an independent Scotland.

As it stands with the UK Scotland is out of the EU altogether, with independence the worst that can happen is an opportunity to stay in the Single Market as seamlessly as possible, with a route back into the EU relatively quickly should Scots voters want it ( which seemed to be the case last June ).

And were people like Michael Howard and Fallon really alluding to going to war over Gibraltar this morning on tv ? My goodness.. we're only 4 days in after triggering Article 50.

I didn't say "he" did - why?
Do you believe that a Scots application to join the EU post-Brexit will be straightforward?

Who OFFICIALLY says that there would be "a route back into the EU relatively quickly should Scots voters want it"?
Link please?
Because just a few short weeks ago from the same person:
"Scotland will be "at the back of the queue" if it wants to become a member of the European Union if it decides to leave the United Kingdom, Spain's foreign minister has said"
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15154608.Independent_Scotland_would_be_at_back_of_EU_queue__says_Spain/
As usual you believe one but not the other?



It looks like your "relatively quickly" could in fact be quite a long time away, if at all.

Finally re: Howard and Fallon - is anyone really so gullible as to be deceived by media interpretations of what most of us realise as being initial posturing regarding Brexit?
I should be surprised but having seen so many pro-SNP lies, I am not.

.string.

@ Shakey

I emphasised "constitutional", Shakey - that was in the context of the Spanish attitude. I don't think the concept of legality exists outside the Law.

As I think we both agree, though in different ways, the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be crucial. Bad result bad for the UK and "good" for the SNP, which makes the good wishes from Sturgeon regarding the negotiations somewhat hypocritical.

In my view Sturgeon dropped a clanger or two in that letter she sent.

First she would have been better off delaying it; she has the vote from the Scottish Parliament but she does not have the Scottish people clearly behind her at the moment, rather the opposite. I guess she did it early to have time for her legal games but in doing so she has laid the proposed timing open to it being declared illegal. That's a risky approach (remember the last legal challenge).

Secondly she introduced political arguments into the letter which opens the door to May doing the same for her own rationale without becoming seen to be the one who needs to give excuses for her actions. If Sturgeon had the legal action in her sights then she would have done better to save all that argumsntation stuff for the legal battle rather than writing it in the form of a party political statement, demonstrably a parochial SNP party world view.

There are other mistakes in there but I can't be bothered to spell it all out.

May can make a number of responses.

May might give a short brusque reply but I expect her to take advantage of Sturgeon's meanderings.

So what I suspect she might do is to give the essence of her three main arguments;

o on it being too early after the previous referendum,
o on the proposed timing of the referendum being damaging to the Brexit negotiations process, and with that damaging to a probably Scotland future in the UK
o and the need for the Scots to have all information needed to make such a momentous decision
(the timetable which assumes all is wrapped up by Oct next year is laughably unrealistic and clear to all as a timetable to suit the SNP agenda.)

She will probably also point out that she has a mandate, on behalf of the UK to act for the whole of the UK, as confirmed by the last Scottish Referendum, and she will do just that.

My guess would be that she will reject the proposal by Sturgeon but not the principle of a referendum in future and that she would consider such a referendum when the Brexit Deal is fully signed off, if the Scottish Parliament in power at that time then confirms it's wish to continue with it's request.

All IMHO of course but we will see.