The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

beecher2 wrote: »

This is why organisations like FullFact are so important https://fullfact.org/

They use GERS as reliable statistics.

The SNP use GERS, the Growth Commission is using GERS to extrapolate an independent Scottish economy, why do some independence supporters deny GERS? Inconvenient truth?

ash28

beecher2 wrote: »

That's the problem with statistics being used by politicians, isn't it? Similar thing happens when politicians discuss the numbers of poorer students attending university - they use UCAS statistics but don't take into consideration that many young people gain their higher education qualifications at college, and don't apply through UCAS.

There's too much focus on single sets of statistics anyway, for examples number of teachers and police officers are focussed on which means any cuts are made to support staff who don't grab the same headlines. Hours spent in A&E is another one - important, but is it really the most important aspect of health care (especially when so many treat it as alternative to a GP appointment)

This is why organisations like FullFact are so important https://fullfact.org/

Yes, I agree it is the problem when statistics are used by politicians. I wasn't particularly picking on Scotland, by the way, it just happens to be the first on the list as it is the most recent.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

sss555s wrote: »

You seem to acknowledge that Scotland has the potential to succeed but think we should leave the running of things to Westminster who has decimated Scotland over the last 40 years whilst taking £330bn in oil revenue alone and created boom town London while Scots are constantly falling behind.

This was happening long before the SNP got into power.

Wow.
That is very clearly either delusional or just plain anti-English but I will let other readers decide which they think it is.

Ample argument against your distorted POV has been given earlier from a few other posters, so I see no need to belatedly continue with that.

I would say though that yes, Scotland DOES indeed have the POTENTIAL to succeed as an independent country.
I did not however say or imply that " we should leave the running of things to Westminster" - you are reading what is not there to make your own argument.

The SNP are not fit for task.
Simple as.
So roll on the next election, let's cut the SNP majority (if not totally wipe it out) and let those Scots who want independence form a breakaway party who care about Scotland rather than their own political agenda.

Scotland needs an independence party that puts the people of Scotland first.
When we get that, we stand a better chance of independence.
Because too many Scots know what the SNP really are; incompetent.

setmefree2

Scoxit: Massive Budget Deficit is Waiting to Bite an Independent Scotland and Stands in the Way of EU Membership

Scotland will need to enact significant austerity measures were it to exit the United Kingdom after a second independence referendum argue analysts.
Economists are once again studying the potential implications of Scotland going independent a mere three years after the previous exercise which saw a majority of Scots opt to remain in the United Kingdom.

Economic opinion was near universal during the last referendum - independence would be costly for Scotland - and the same will apply for round 2 argues BofA economist Robert Wood in a note released March 17

As we head to a second independence referendum Wood points out that Scotland has historically accounted for 9-9.5% of UK GDP, “though that share has fallen recently as the Scottish economy has underperformed the wider UK.”
One of the reasons for the recent underperformance of the Scottish economy has been falling oil revenues.
Scottish government oil sector tax receipts amounted to just £60mn in Fiscal Year 2015/16 if oil revenues are shared on a geographical basis as the Scottish government argues they should be

According to the Scottish Government’s Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2015-16 report, the budget deficit was 9.5% of GDP in 2015/16, close to the 2009/10 peak of 9.95% for Scotland and 10.1% for the UK.
Public sector revenue was estimated as £53.7 billion, or 7.9% of total UK revenue.
Total expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £68.6 billion.
This is equivalent to 9.1% of total UK public sector expenditure.

Marian L. Tupy, senior policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, says “while the Scots resent their much bigger neighbour in the south, they are heavily reliant on English subsidies”.
Tupy believes the reliance of Scotland on England is bound to grow larger as Scottish oil becomes scarcer and falls in price due to the fracking revolution in the United States.
“It is that subsidy that allows Holyrood to maintain a much more socialist economic model than would be the case if Scotland had to fend for itself,” says Tupy. “Independence is exactly what Scotland needs in order to rid the birthplace of Adam Smith of socialism once and for all – after a brutal but necessary learning experience.”
There is also the question of splitting the UK’s debt burden - because Scotland has long been a recipient of UK borrowing it goes that it must accept its repayment obligations.
This will surely place a heavy demand on a newly independent country that has start afresh in establishing credibility with international lenders.
Daniel Mahony at the Centre for Policy Studies says all the data suggests that Scotland’s finances are precarious at the current time.
As can be expected, there are political ramifications to the data.
The Door to the European Union is Locked Until the Deficit Comes Down

As the SNP probes its way towards a second referendum we have had confirmation that the party would seek to take an independent Scotland back into Europe.
However, the country's budget deficit poses a significant hurdle to such an outcome.
The EU’s Stability and Growth Pact ensures that new member states are expected to have a budget deficit of just 3% of GDP.
According to Eurostat, the general government deficit of the 28 EU countries is at 2.4%, while for the Eurozone it stands at 2.1%.
“This should concern those pushing for Scottish independence. With independence, the Scottish Government would have to take on the burden of a high budget deficit, which would inevitably lead to a combination of fiscal instability, higher taxes and a cut in government spending,” says Mahony.
Mahony points out that Scotland’s high budget deficit would also make Scotland’s entry into the EU even less likely.
And Scotland's deficit position is unlikely to improve anytime soon which suggests a vote for Scottish independence will leave the country outside of both the United Kindom and the European Union.
It is therefore worth pointing out that an independent Scotland - regardless of Brexit - would have been unlikely to enter the European Union thanks to its yawning budget deficit.
Cuts - the kind the SNP are not ideologically aligned with - will be required.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/6403-scottish-budget-deficit-independence

ash28

Moody's warns Scotland could see its credit status downgraded to junk if leaves the UK.

Commenting on the potential for Scotland to become independent, Colin Ellis, chief credit officer for EMEA at Moody's, has warned the country would face "downward pressure" on its finances in the event of independence, according to The Times.
The warning comes as lower oil price, currently sitting at around $55 a barrel, have left Scotland facing a large budget deficit and worse off financially than before the previous referendum in September 2014.
Back in 2014, when the oil price was above $100, an independent Scotland could have received a rating between A and Baa, placing it within the investment grade bracket.

However, Moody's Ellis said current circumstances could see Scotland's rating drop to Ba, a junk status (also known as sub-investment grade), which would place it on a par with Azerbaijan and Guatemala.

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3006760/moodys-warns-scotland-exit-could-leave-country-facing-junk-rating


Doesn't sound great.

TrickyTree83

ash28 wrote: »

Moody's warns Scotland could see its credit status downgraded to junk if leaves the UK.







http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3006760/moodys-warns-scotland-exit-could-leave-country-facing-junk-rating


Doesn't sound great.

Yep, called this a while back too.

They won't listen though. They might as well come up with a plan to breed and export unicorns.

Rinoa

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/6403-scottish-budget-deficit-independence

All well and good, but the gut feelings of Scots Nats say they're going to be just fine. Gut feeling and hunches trump detailed analysis every time.

TrickyTree83

Rinoa wrote: »

All well and good, but the gut feelings of Scots Nats say they're going to be just fine. Gut feeling and hunches trump detailed analysis every time.

Cue "well if it's ok for Brexit".

Without realising they're totally different situations, they'll love to compare it though I suppose when you've got nothing you need to reach for those straws.

Mortgagefreeman

ash28 wrote: »

Moody's warns Scotland could see its credit status downgraded to junk if leaves the.

So They'll be following their diet then.;)


http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/TrendDiet

Tromking

sss555s wrote: »

So where do you see Scotlands deficit and standard of living 5 years from now if we stay in the UK?

Scotland itself only has a deficit if it chooses independence. Until then Scotland`s comparable weak economic performance is quite properly 'covered' by the stronger economic areas of the UK. Its called the pooling and sharing of risks and resources dont you know!:)
Scotland ironically has been spared much of the austerity we`ve witnessed down south, as the UK treasury block grant given to Holyrood is very generous. Choose independence however and the dynamic changes.