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The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

17957967988008011544

Comments

  • They use GERS as reliable statistics.

    The SNP use GERS, the Growth Commission is using GERS to extrapolate an independent Scottish economy, why do some independence supporters deny GERS? Inconvenient truth?

    No. Many don't see it as a good nor reliable indicator of what an independent Scotland will look like economically. People like Hague extrapolate the figures out assuming an independent Scotland would be following the current UK model. Which is obviously not going to happen.

    The Growth Commission would start with the GERS figures then apply a potential and completely different Scottish model going forward. Resulting in completely different conclusions.
    It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
    But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    No. Many don't see it as a good nor reliable indicator of what an independent Scotland will look like economically. People like Hague extrapolate the figures out assuming an independent Scotland would be following the current UK model. Which is obviously not going to happen.

    The Growth Commission would start with the GERS figures then apply a potential and completely different Scottish model going forward. Resulting in completely different conclusions.

    Fantasy island.

    There's been plenty of research done on what an independent Scottish economy would look like, every single one shows deficits requiring tax rises, spending cuts or if you have your own currency self imposed devaluation. Every single one, even the white paper you asked me to read showed this to be the case. So now you're pinning your hopes on the Growth Commission who are using GERS as a basis too (funny that). On the off chance they turn up with the same result, which is unlikely given their obvious bias, will you finally admit what everyone else knows to be the truth regarding an independent Scottish economy?
  • Cue "well if it's ok for Brexit".

    Without realising they're totally different situations, they'll love to compare it though I suppose when you've got nothing you need to reach for those straws.

    I think the media are running their 'great depression stories' a little early this time round.

    This is very simple. With Brexit there is a good chance that rUK will be going down the tubes economically in a few years time. Sturgeon is offering a way out should that happen. Confirmed Yes voters like myself will always vote Yes to independence, and vice versa for others who voted No. But there's a group of people in the middle waiting to see how this Brexit/Leaving the EU thing pans out.

    If Brexit doesn't go well. Then that's that for the union. You're optimistic the UK will get a good deal and that's fine. Because the union remaining as the UK 100% depends on it now. Regardless of current ratings agencies long range predictions and/or the spin media and politicians put on statistics. Things change and we're about to go through a lot of change.
    Asked by Bild am Sonntag newspaper whether he was concerned other member states will follow Britain's example in quitting, Mr Juncker said: 'No. Britain's example will make everyone realise that it's not worth leaving.'

    Mr Juncker also said Britain would need to get used to being treated as a non-member.

    'Half memberships and cherry-picking aren't possible. In Europe you eat what's on the table or you don't sit at the table,' he added
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4330846/UK-example-stop-states-leaving-EU-boasts-Eurocrat.html
    It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
    But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?
  • Fantasy island.

    There's been plenty of research done on what an independent Scottish economy would look like, every single one shows deficits requiring tax rises, spending cuts or if you have your own currency self imposed devaluation. Every single one, even the white paper you asked me to read showed this to be the case. So now you're pinning your hopes on the Growth Commission who are using GERS as a basis too (funny that). On the off chance they turn up with the same result, which is unlikely given their obvious bias, will you finally admit what everyone else knows to be the truth regarding an independent Scottish economy?

    None of that matters. Because you cannot predict how negotiations will go between Scotland/rUK debt divisions/assets and you cannot predict any economic model Scottish governments will follow in the subsequent years after independence. This is especially relevant and there is a good chance the SNP will split after independence.

    GERS is based on a Scotland entirely within the UK, with most macro economic levers at Westminster level.

    In any case the last few weeks, and especially since Sturgeon's announcement have brought an avalanche of recycled old 2014 'arguments' against independence. Almost all of them are based on the past and the current status quo. <
    Neither of which will exist after 29th March this year.

    We're all far more interested now in what's going to happen with the UK leaving the EU and how that will affect things going forward as far as the economic debates are concerned. The answers to which you simply do not have and there's no point in pretending you or anyone else does.

    Politically the case for the union is just about dead and is unlikely to be revived any time soon. You're going to need some really impressive economic arguments in around 18 months time in order not to kill off the economic arguments as well.
    It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
    But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    edited 20 March 2017 at 5:37PM
    I think the media are running their 'great depression stories' a little early this time round.

    This is very simple. With Brexit there is a good chance that rUK will be going down the tubes economically in a few years time. Sturgeon is offering a way out should that happen. Confirmed Yes voters like myself will always vote Yes to independence, and vice versa for others who voted No. But there's a group of people in the middle waiting to see how this Brexit/Leaving the EU thing pans out.

    Is there a good chance? How do you know this? Gut feel? The forecasters have been incorrect at every turn (and before you start, GERS is not a forecast). Sturgeon is not offering a way out, she's offering Brexit x10 if there's a bad deal. How many times do I need to go over this?

    - 1,000,000 Scottish jobs dependent on the UK market (Fraser of Allander Institute)
    - 64% of Scottish exports to the rUK market (Scottish government)

    vs

    - 80,000 Scottish jobs dependent on the EU market (Fraser of Allander Institute)
    - 11% of Scottish exports to the EU market (Scottish government)

    I'm not using media or social media clippings or articles and I'm not using opinion pieces or blogs. The two positions are outlined using SNP respected economists (FoA Institute) or the Scottish government themselves. Argue the toss as much as you want but you'll be found wanting against these statistics. The Scottish government trade statistics will also have been reviewed by the UK Statistics Authority, unless of course there's some grand conspiracy moving against you? Perhaps you can overturn the 7% of the 10% deficit needed by selling tinfoil hats?

    If there's a bad deal for the UK it makes the case for independence worse not better. Come on, if you're going to use the word think at least put it into practice.
    If Brexit doesn't go well. Then that's that for the union. You're optimistic the UK will get a good deal and that's fine. Because the union remaining as the UK 100% depends on it now. Regardless of current ratings agencies long range predictions and/or the spin media and politicians put on statistics. Things change and we're about to go through a lot of change.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4330846/UK-example-stop-states-leaving-EU-boasts-Eurocrat.html

    :wall:

    Right, lets just be clear.

    You think that if the UK gets a good deal that independence is not going to happen.

    Yet if the UK gets a bad deal, that makes the economic impact on an independent Scotland that much worse than a good deal for the UK which actually enhances the argument for independence due to the dependence of Scotland on the UK market, Ireland is also worried about this since they trade so much with the UK. So there's precedent here from a neighbouring nation. Are you going to tell us all Enda Kenny is wrong too now?

    So if it's a bad deal, independence doesn't look like a good idea...

    If it's a good deal, independence doesn't look like a good idea...

    Isn't that what I've been trying to tell you all along?
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    None of that matters. Because you cannot predict how negotiations will go between Scotland/rUK debt divisions/assets and you cannot predict any economic model Scottish governments will follow in the subsequent years after independence. This is especially relevant and there is a good chance the SNP will split after independence.

    GERS is based on a Scotland entirely within the UK, with most macro economic levers at Westminster level.

    In any case the last few weeks, and especially since Sturgeon's announcement have brought an avalanche of recycled old 2014 'arguments' against independence. Almost all of them are based on the past and the current status quo. <
    Neither of which will exist after 29th March this year.

    We're all far more interested now in what's going to happen with the UK leaving the EU and how that will affect things going forward as far as the economic debates are concerned. The answers to which you simply do not have and there's no point in pretending you or anyone else does.

    Politically the case for the union is just about dead and is unlikely to be revived any time soon. You're going to need some really impressive economic arguments in around 18 months time in order not to kill off the economic arguments as well.

    You will not find 7% of your GDP in savings, especially given that the percentage will likely rise in the event of a bad deal from the EU for the UK. Why? Because of the border effect and the impact on trade, jobs and therefore revenue for the Scottish treasury.

    You want to be in NATO? Then the current military spend continues, 2% of GDP.

    Where are you going to find 7% (possibly more) of GDP in tax revenue Shakey? Where? Share the wisdom.

    Come on...

    It's only the really entrenched nationalists who believe the case for the union is dead, they did when they decided that independence was the answer and they always will until they change their mind. But all of those I've spoken to are so intransigent to the facts that I doubt any ever will. So it's up to the rational folk of Scotland to keep you in the manner to which you've become accustomed as you're hell bent on destroying Scotland as you know it.
  • I think the media are running their 'great depression stories' a little early this time round.

    This is very simple. With Brexit there is a good chance that rUK will be going down the tubes economically in a few years time. Sturgeon is offering a way out should that happen. Confirmed Yes voters like myself will always vote Yes to independence, and vice versa for others who voted No. But there's a group of people in the middle waiting to see how this Brexit/Leaving the EU thing pans out.

    If Brexit doesn't go well. Then that's that for the union. You're optimistic the UK will get a good deal and that's fine. Because the union remaining as the UK 100% depends on it now. Regardless of current ratings agencies long range predictions and/or the spin media and politicians put on statistics. Things change and we're about to go through a lot of change.
    We all know that the media love to seize upon anything negative; good news does not sell.

    The rest of your comment is pure pie-in-the-sky, and here is why:

    There is a small chance that the rUK will go down the tubes economically in a few years time.
    All recent forecasts to date indicate continued and increased growth.
    Whereas all forecasts for an independent Scotland are negative in nature, so explain please what this "way out" is?
    A poorer Scotland for certain than if it remains in the rUK - until we see evidence otherwise, to date of which there is absolutely none.

    Your "group of people in the middle" are (at the last election) over one quarter of eligible voters that did not vote, plus.
    Do you seriously believe that enough of these Scots will vote for austerity the likes of which has not been seen in Scotland for centuries unless Brexit is seen to have similar consequences?

    As I posted in another thread, Brexit should be viewed with realism - not optimism or fatalism.
    As such, indicators so far are that the UK will be just fine - and perhaps better than fine.

    As for Junckers ........ his attitude from the outset towards anyone suggesting an exit from the EU has been what could politely be described as deplorable.
    Fortunately not all Eurocrats are so blinkered.
  • mollycat
    mollycat Posts: 1,475 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    So it's up to the rational folk of Scotland to keep you in the manner to which you've become accustomed as you're hell bent on destroying Scotland as you know it.

    This ^^^^^.

    100% this.
  • Shakethedisease
    Shakethedisease Posts: 7,006 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Photogenic
    edited 20 March 2017 at 6:15PM
    Is there a good chance? How do you know this? Gut feel? The forecasters have been incorrect at every turn (and before you start, GERS is not a forecast). Sturgeon is not offering a way out, she's offering Brexit x10 if there's a bad deal. How many times do I need to go over this?

    - 1,000,000 Scottish jobs dependent on the UK market (Fraser of Allander Institute)
    - 64% of Scottish exports to the rUK market (Scottish government)

    vs

    - 80,000 Scottish jobs dependent on the EU market (Fraser of Allander Institute)
    - 11% of Scottish exports to the EU market (Scottish government)

    I'm not using media or social media clippings or articles and I'm not using opinion pieces or blogs. The two positions are outlined using SNP respected economists (FoA Institute) or the Scottish government themselves. Argue the toss as much as you want but you'll be found wanting against these statistics. The Scottish government trade statistics will also have been reviewed by the UK Statistics Authority, unless of course there's some grand conspiracy moving against you? Perhaps you can overturn the 7% of the 10% deficit needed by selling tinfoil hats?

    If there's a bad deal for the UK it makes the case for independence worse not better. Come on, if you're going to use the word think at least put it into practice.



    :wall:

    Right, lets just be clear.

    You think that if the UK gets a good deal that independence is not going to happen.

    Yet if the UK gets a bad deal, that makes the economic impact on an independent Scotland that much worse than a good deal for the UK which actually enhances the argument for independence due to the dependence of Scotland on the UK market, Ireland is also worried about this since they trade so much with the UK. So there's precedent here from a neighbouring nation. Are you going to tell us all Enda Kenny is wrong too now?

    So if it's a bad deal, independence doesn't look like a good idea...

    If it's a good deal, independence doesn't look like a good idea...

    Isn't that what I've been trying to tell you all along?

    Those figures all depend on the current status quo of the UK. That's about to change and change quickly. You do not know what the UK is going to end up with at the end of the two year window. Scotland would be mad not to prepare and secure itself a way out if it all turns sour, there are no good deals and there are going to be massive job losses anyway.

    You and Jock above are trying to sell a status quo/safe option and figures/stats pulled from it which simply won't exist in a few weeks time. You are both 'hoping' for a good deal and 'optimistic' about it. That doesn't mean it will happen.

    If it doesn't work out then Scots who ( politically ) already don't want shackled to a right wing Tory govt and haven't in decades.. are unlikely to want shackled to an economy which is dying on it's a**e either. Sturgeon is holding the exit door open for them should the worst happen. Whether the Scots as an electorate walk through it will depend on how this whole things goes over the next year or so.

    The EU have certainly been preparing as a unit well for this.
    Donald Tusk‏Verified account @eucopresident 5h5 hours ago Within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50, I will present the draft #Brexit guidelines to the EU27 Member States.
    Today:-
    Michel Barnier‏Verified account @MichelBarnier
    #Brexit: 4th technical seminar @27 to discuss impact on customs controls & procedures. EU27 have to start preparing now for future controls
    Michel Barnier‏Verified account @MichelBarnier Mar 9
    EU27 #Brexit consultation today w/ President Radev. Common position on citizens, budget & EU27 unity. Bulgaria holds EU rotating pres. 2018
    It all seems so stupid it makes me want to give up.
    But why should I give up, when it all seems so stupid ?
  • TrickyTree83
    TrickyTree83 Posts: 3,930 Forumite
    edited 20 March 2017 at 6:43PM
    mollycat wrote: »
    This ^^^^^.

    100% this.

    Thanks, I prefer this post though

    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72281197&postcount=7977

    I just don't see how they can argue for independence in the face of
    - 1,000,000 Scottish jobs dependent on the UK market (Fraser of Allander Institute)
    - 64% of Scottish exports to the rUK market (Scottish government)

    vs

    - 80,000 Scottish jobs dependent on the EU market (Fraser of Allander Institute)
    - 11% of Scottish exports to the EU market (Scottish government)

    It just doesn't work. It's like someone telling you their football team beat yours, except you thrashed them 10-0. Utter insanity. And then to claim that a good deal keeps the union together - it's the only situation in which the idea of an independent Scotland works and a bad deal is the worst possible outcome for pro-independence support. If it's a bad deal, you're stuck with us because to go it alone then will be opening up harm to ~1,000,000 jobs and 64% of your trade instead of ~80,000 jobs and 11% of your trade.

    Statistics produced by reputable institutions, one of which the Scottish government who will be fact checked and reviewed by the UK Statistics Authority on the veracity of the figures. We can all argue statistics can be inaccurate, they are usually inaccurate by default. It's extremely rare to have 100% accurate statistics on macro-economics if not unheard of.
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