The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Sapphire

Generali wrote: »

Of course.

Scotland has produced far more Prime Ministers since 1900 than you would expect given her size/population share of the UK: Campbell-Bannerman, Law (born overseas but was an MP in Glasgow), Douglas-Home, MacDonald and Brown plus a very electable Leader of HMLO in John Smith who may well have won if given the chance. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Ms Davidson lead the Tory Party which would give her about an even money chance of becoming PM.

I'd love to see the plucky Ms Davidson lead the country. She seems very bright, strong and her own person, and I believe could do an excellent job for the country, including uniting it! She doesn't seem to be a run-of-the mill politician and could be a refreshing change…

Sapphire

HornetSaver wrote: »

If we have Brexit, independence is inevitable and the sooner the issue is put to bed the better.

I don't understand your reasoning behind this. Why would anyone want to be a part of the massively dysfunctional EU (especially as an obviously undemocratic 'European super-state' run by Germany)? I see sense in having strong economic ties, and individual political alliances as the need arises, but it's crazy to try and force countries with hugely different histories, political mindsets,economies and culture into one political union. This is in particular when their citizens have no say in decisions made by such a super-state – to me it smacks of totalitarianism, especially when I hear Juncker and Merkel utter their orders to democratic European countries. It will never work and the cracks are obvious, though some countries may have been paid off for a while at the expense of Britain in particular.

Shakethedisease

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Swinney lost 12% of the vote share compared to last time.

Conservative Murdo Fraser gained 12% compared to last time.

Spin it anyway you like but the SNP saw a significant shift against them in the rural and Northern areas.

Here's a map showing change in SNP vote share by constituency - Red is in decline....

You're ok. I've already seen those on Hague's timeline. However, there's one tiny little detail missing there. One that will have to rectified in time for the next election. There's been a change in the electoral roll registration system since 2011. Seems the NE of Scotland in particular was affected badly enough to be specifically mentioned.

27.01.2016

Motion debated, That the Parliament notes with concern the report by the Smith Institute, 10 million missing voters: a briefing report on the failings of the new electoral registration system, which claims that as many as 10 million people may not be registered to vote across the UK; understands that recent changes to voter registration toward a system of individual electoral registration could have seen as many as 230,000 voters in Scotland, including in Mid Scotland and Fife, lost from the electoral register, making it one of the worst affected regions in the UK; believes that this will have an adverse impact and will create a democratic deficit in the lead up to the 2016 Scottish election and the referendum on EU membership;

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/sp/?id=2016-01-27.23.0

A breakdown of the Scottish figures shows that Glasgow will be the worst affected area, losing a staggering 67,000 voters. Edinburgh is due to lose 24,000 voters and my region, Fife, is due to lose more than 15,000 voters. Those are not people who have never registered; rather, they are people who were registered under the previous system but who will be removed from the new register. They had a vote at the general election, but they have been taken off the register.

Best not get too comfy eh ? The above incidentally that may come back in Cameron re the EU ref also. Turnout is always lowish in Glasgow anyway, but Fife and Edinburgh... Turnout was high, but not necessarily by the same people who were eligible to vote just a year ago.

Shakethedisease

Sapphire wrote: »

I'd love to see the plucky Ms Davidson lead the country. She seems very bright, strong and her own person, and I believe could do an excellent job for the country, including uniting it! She doesn't seem to be a run-of-the mill politician and could be a refreshing change…

She sure would ! Gravitas in spades.

HornetSaver

Sapphire wrote: »

I don't understand your reasoning behind this. Why would anyone want to be a part of the massively dysfunctional EU (especially as an obviously undemocratic 'European super-state' run by Germany)?

It's not my reasoning - it's simply a fact that Scotland is more pro-Europe than England, Wales or Northern Ireland. It is also a fact that every single party represented at Holyrood wants to be part of it. Whether they're right or wrong is neither here nor there, the referendum will decide that.

The UK-wide referendum looks tight, but I'll bet that Scotland votes to remain in the EU by a greater margin than they voted to remain in the UK.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're ok. I've already seen those on Hague's timeline. However, there's one tiny little detail missing there. One that will have to rectified in time for the next election. There's been a change in the electoral roll registration system since 2011. Seems the NE of Scotland in particular was affected badly enough to be specifically mentioned.

27.01.2016http://www.theyworkforyou.com/sp/?id=2016-01-27.23.0

Best not get too comfy eh ? The above incidentally that may come back in Cameron re the EU ref also. Turnout is always lowish in Glasgow anyway, but Fife and Edinburgh... Turnout was high, but not necessarily by the same people who were eligible to vote just a year ago.

There's also a good chance that the next boundary changes in Scotland, which UK-wide at least tend to favour the Tories, will be done before the next Scottish Elections as they must be done every 8-11 years and were last done in 2011.

http://www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/includes/downloadfile.asp?file=/legislation/scotland_act_1998_schedule_1_as_amended.pdf

Best not get too comfy eh?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Swinney lost 12% of the vote share compared to last time.

Conservative Murdo Fraser gained 12% compared to last time.

Spin it anyway you like but the SNP saw a significant shift against them in the rural and Northern areas.

Here's a map showing change in SNP vote share by constituency - Red is in decline....




And here's one for the Tories.... Green is an increase - they only lost share in 3 constituencies and had double digit gains across huge parts of Scotland.

The areas of darkest green on the Tory map are places they saw at least a 10% increase in vote share.

Much of it a direct swing from SNP to Conservative.

That's a huge number of rural and northern constituencies distinctly underwhelmed with the SNP compared to last time....

With reference to Generali's point about it getting harder to keep people happy the longer you govern, wonder if the farm payments fiasco had anything to do with it?

Sapphire

Shakethedisease wrote: »

She sure would ! Gravitas in spades.

Not too sure why you showed those pictures. They just show that she is different from the general run-of-the-mill politicians. She looks fun, and appears bright and intelligent when you hear her speak.

zagubov

So let's summarise.

The tories climb to third in votes but overtake the second party in seats.

Yep they deserve a pat on the head/Crackerjack pencil/the fawning attention of the rightwing deadtree media for that.

Never mind that the obvious point that they got beat. Resoundingly. And that was the height of their ambitions.

Just like down here in the mayoral election, but more so.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

zagubov wrote: »

So let's summarise.

The tories climb to third in votes but overtake the second party in seats.

Yep they deserve a pat on the head/Crackerjack pencil/the fawning attention of the rightwing deadtree media for that.

Never mind that the obvious point that they got beat. Resoundingly. And that was the height of their ambitions.

Just like down here in the mayoral election, but more so.

People said exactly the same thing about the SNP not so long ago....

And then they won. :cool:

You'd have to be more than a bit blinkered not to understand the Tories double digit gains across huge swathes of Scotland is a seismic shift in Scottish politics.