The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

elantan wrote: »

How's that 1.5 trillion debt reduction going ? Think you'll manage that once we leave ?

Ultimately yes.

As I pointed out earlier the UK has the institutions to do this.

Currently Scotland would struggle with a £10bn debt, let alone deficit, plus it's own share of that sovereign debt if they become independent.

Enterprise_1701C

I don't think that anyone has truly answered the question, why would you want to leave the UK only to join the EU?

You say you want to be independent, but Scotland would cease to exist if you joined the EU. You would be tied to a currency that is wrecking every economy that uses it (even Germany are suffering now). Do you not know the ultimate plan of the EU is to become one country with no borders and one army?

Oh, and don't say you will just stay in. It does not work like that, Scotland never joined the EU, the UK did. It is the UK that will be leaving. If Scotland gained independence before we left the EU then they would boot themselves out of the EU prematurely, and there is a few countries in the EU with problems with separatists that would veto Scotland joining the EU even if you could meet the requirements.

kabayiri

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

...

You say you want to be independent, but Scotland would cease to exist if you joined the EU. You would be tied to a currency that is wrecking every economy that uses it (even Germany are suffering now). Do you not know the ultimate plan of the EU is to become one country with no borders and one army?
...

If I were in charge of a country considering joining the EU, I would definitely want to know what this EU looked like after the Brexit process had concluded.

There are definitely politicians at the heart of the EU who want to increase centralised control. It's been their goal for a long time.

How that fits in with the mindset of a newly independent small country like Scotland is difficult to predict.

.string.

This discussion is hovering around some very improbable assumptions (with apologies to Unionists for the harshness here - I am projecting possible future consequences and attitudes resulting from the SNP's hateful campaign of division).

That Scotland can have a Referendum in the near term on separation that is accepted by the UK Government and which is therefore made legitmate.

Having such an event during Brexit negotiations is not in the interests of the UK, and partucularly the rUK, and will be resisted by any means possible. It would also be premature as currently mooted (stay in UK/join the EU) since no-one knows what that means. The SNP might want Scots to vote like turkeys for Christmas, but the rest of us don't.

Personally, I would insist that a Referendum would only be considered again for agreement after Brexit.

The choice would thus be - Stay in the UK vs leave the UK and wait to see when/if the EU can be joined.

That were Scotland to vote to separate from the UK, it would be enacted before the UK left the EU

An rUK would have no interest in rushing to a Natland timetable except for that of stopping the "Scottish subsidy" as soon as possible to save money; there are important items to settle which will take time. Far better to delay until permanent unfettered use of the Fastlane Trident base is assured and Scotland accepts its share of the UK National debt. Arguments on the maritime boundary could go on for years.

Unless of course major concessions were given by the SNP to expedite the process.

That Scotland could remain in the EU or join immediately

Well that's just silly. As per above Scotland would have left the EU with the UK long before the UK Parliament votes agreement, as per the Act of Union. Copious other reasons have been given.

That the Brexit result will be unattractive to Scots

Time will tell on that one; it may suit the SNP to do the UK down at this juncture, but they are only spinning their own spite. Perhaps May will actually make Brexit work; it's just the SNP who hope she won't.

.string.

@Shakey - you mentioned that an iScotland would use the "Scottish Pound", pegged to Sterling.

Perhaps you weren't serious but I don't see that as a comfortabe choice. I really can't see anybody accepting Scottish pounds as payment on a parity with British (OK English) pounds. This does not happen now, even with there being acceptance that the Scottish Pound is a legal currency. Maybe you forget that, being in Scotland. On an individual level I think most, if not all, south of the border would not accept Scottish Pounds in their pay packet or even change from a store.

Institutions would not accept it I'm sure - far too risky to accept a new currency without the surety of a country able to withstand currency fluctuations. What would your remaining financial sector do? Trade with Scottish Pounds as collateral?

I remember going to Moscow shortly after the communists got their come-uppance. Payment was mostly in Dollars there, not Roubles, as the rouble fell so quickly that for the purposes of keeping at least some roubles in one's pockets, it was best to change just a few every few days rather than taking a stock for a week's visit. Is that what you would wish on Scotland?

As far as I remember it is a law that a Scottish Pound can be exchanged for Sterling on demand by the bank that issued the SP. One can imagine a lot of people trying to do just that in the weeks/months before Separation. Afterwards - don't know what they will do.

.string.

kabayiri wrote: »

If I were in charge of a country considering joining the EU, I would definitely want to know what this EU looked like after the Brexit process had concluded.

There are definitely politicians at the heart of the EU who want to increase centralised control. It's been their goal for a long time.

How that fits in with the mindset of a newly independent small country like Scotland is difficult to predict.

I watch the EU Parliament every now and then, and I agree that here is a notable push towards further integration after Brexit raised it's head. There are a few dissenting voices but it seems to be the prevalent mood Without the UK there as a rallying point I suspect that mood will soon be irreversible and to be a new member will be to become absorbed into the EU collective

But we should not assume that Scottish politics would go that way. The SNP's professed love of the EU is no more than a stratagem to advance their obsession and I doubt they would, or could, carry EU membership through. As you say, the Scots may not like it. They might, however, really like to join the UK again and get to see the BBC again.

Thrugelmir

elantan wrote: »

How's that 1.5 trillion debt reduction going ? Think you'll manage that once we leave ?

Given that the SNP is anti austerity. What's the plan for growing the economy ? Or is borrowing to invest the answer (as most socialists parties believe it to be).

As for the UK generally. Spend reduction is going well. There's huge amounts of identified waste that's slowly being chiseled away. Major blocking point is the intransigent unions and historic culture of the public sector. Change takes a long time.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

This discussion is hovering around some very improbable assumptions (with apologies to Unionists for the harshness here - I am projecting possible future consequences and attitudes resulting from the SNP's hateful campaign of division).

That Scotland can have a Referendum in the near term on separation that is accepted by the UK Government and which is therefore made legitmate.

Having such an event during Brexit negotiations is not in the interests of the UK, and partucularly the rUK, and will be resisted by any means possible. It would also be premature as currently mooted (stay in UK/join the EU) since no-one knows what that means. The SNP might want Scots to vote like turkeys for Christmas, but the rest of us don't.

Personally, I would insist that a Referendum would only be considered again for agreement after Brexit.

You can't insist though. That's the point. Another referendum will be at Holyrood's behest, not Westminsters. The last time this 'blocking a referendum' was mooted ( and I was here posting at the time back in 2011/2012 ).. Salmond simply kept bursting out laughing saying that any referendum would be leglislated for in Scotland and it was Scotland's voters that would make any decision, end of story. Cameron blinked first.

Logically and from what has been said since the Brexit vote, any Scottish ref must take place before the UK leaves the EU. The EU must know what Sturgeon's plans are, she's been over holding talks often enough.

The choice would thus be - Stay in the UK vs leave the UK and wait to see when/if the EU can be joined.

That were Scotland to vote to separate from the UK, it would be enacted before the UK left the EU

An rUK would have no interest in rushing to a Natland timetable except for that of stopping the "Scottish subsidy" as soon as possible to save money; there are important items to settle which will take time. Far better to delay until permanent unfettered use of the Fastlane Trident base is assured and Scotland accepts its share of the UK National debt. Arguments on the maritime boundary could go on for years.

Talks could take years yes. But best to take place before the UK negotiates Scotland's EU membership and exports away on Scotland's behalf. Better also from a Scottish perspective to be removed from Article 50 references before anything gets too far down the line. No one knows what's going to happen in the next few years though.

Unless of course major concessions were given by the SNP to expedite the process.

That Scotland could remain in the EU or join immediately

Well that's just silly. As per above Scotland would have left the EU with the UK long before the UK Parliament votes agreement, as per the Act of Union. Copious other reasons have been given.

On the contrary. What a PR coup for the EU ! Here is a country that voted to stay in the UK just two years ago, sacrificing all that in order to stay within the EU. The powers that be in the EU should be dancing with joy at the very thought of such wonderful publicity for the project. Those fishing grounds being so useful to Spain and Portugal too.

As I've pointed out before there has been much talk in various think tanks and evidence given to the Holyrood committees that Scotland may end up in a sort of legal holding pen ( within the EU ) until talks with rUK are completed. I think it went along the lines of 'to avoid some kind of absurd in and out scenario' for Scotland.

That the Brexit result will be unattractive to Scots

Time will tell on that one; it may suit the SNP to do the UK down at this juncture, but they are only spinning their own spite. Perhaps May will actually make Brexit work; it's just the SNP who hope she won't.

No it's 62% of Scots voters in the EU referendum, from all parties and regions in Scotland.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

@Shakey - you mentioned that an iScotland would use the "Scottish Pound", pegged to Sterling.

Perhaps you weren't serious but I don't see that as a comfortabe choice. I really can't see anybody accepting Scottish pounds as payment on a parity with British (OK English) pounds. This does not happen now, even with there being acceptance that the Scottish Pound is a legal currency. Maybe you forget that, being in Scotland. On an individual level I think most, if not all, south of the border would not accept Scottish Pounds in their pay packet or even change from a store.

Institutions would not accept it I'm sure - far too risky to accept a new currency without the surety of a country able to withstand currency fluctuations. What would your remaining financial sector do? Trade with Scottish Pounds as collateral?

I remember going to Moscow shortly after the communists got their come-uppance. Payment was mostly in Dollars there, not Roubles, as the rouble fell so quickly that for the purposes of keeping at least some roubles in one's pockets, it was best to change just a few every few days rather than taking a stock for a week's visit. Is that what you would wish on Scotland?

As far as I remember it is a law that a Scottish Pound can be exchanged for Sterling on demand by the bank that issued the SP. One can imagine a lot of people trying to do just that in the weeks/months before Separation. Afterwards - don't know what they will do.

There is a lot of publically published discussion going on. Most notably from the Scottish Greens at the moment. The SNP are understandably playing cards close to chests.

But lets face it, on in the currency issue there's never going to be an ideal short term solution. Anything put forward will be much criticised as per 2014. You may find this paper interesting ( full report a link within this summary ). .

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/8911/new-report-scottish-currency-options-post-Brexit

THE first major analysis to be published of an independent Scotland’s currency options post-Brexit has found that a range of options are viable, but only with an independent currency would a Scottish Government’s monetary policy have the capability of adapting flexibly to global economic circumstances as they change.

The report looks at:

• The strengths and weaknesses of all currency options for an independent Scotland after the UK’s exit from the EU: currency union, “Sterlingisation”, £Scot pegged to Sterling, £Scot pegged to Euro, £Scot with a ‘basket’ peg, £Scot freely floating, The Euro, an Oil Standard and cryptocurrencies.
• The infrastructure that would be required for establishing a Scottish Central Bank, including a Scottish foreign reserve fund.
• The design and distribution process of creating a new Scottish currency.
• Analysis of other countries that have become independent or left a currency union and set up their own currency, including New Zealand, Norway and Slovakia.

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But lets face it, on in the currency issue there's never going to be an ideal short term solution. Anything put forward will be much criticised as per 2014. You may find this paper interesting ( full report a link within this summary ). .

Let's be honest there's no central bank in Scotland. When RBS gets hit by the US regulators for their part in mis-selling of mortgages. There'll be little left of the core bank. Given that the other operating entities are being ring fenced and partitioned off. These ( such as NatWest) will remain under the ownership of the UK taxpayer.