The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

ruggedtoast

Canny Scots are playing the long game with independence while the Tories spin in ever decreasing circles trying to find a solution to the utter mess they have mad of the constitutional makeup of the U.K.

A Indy Scotland would be welcomed by Europe and the world, keen to turn its face from xenophobic Little England and it's all powerful inward looking pensioners.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Canny Scots are playing the long game with independence while the Tories spin in ever decreasing circles trying to find a solution to the utter mess they have mad of the constitutional makeup of the U.K.

A Indy Scotland would be welcomed by Europe and the world, keen to turn its face from xenophobic Little England and it's all powerful inward looking pensioners.

Any proof for your last statement?
Since every time Wee Krankie has approached "The EU" so far she has been packed off with a proverbial flea in her ear.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Resigning themselves?

Not really, just recognising that no trade deal with the EU is bad for the UK, at least in my opinion, since I want trade with all.

So if the UK gets a good deal from the EU there's no need for another indy ref since Nicola and the people of Scotland get what they want. If the UK doesn't get a good deal from the EU then Scotland will want an indy ref to re-join/remain in the EU. You won't get another indy ref unless the UK gets a bad deal and still leaves because the situation will not have 'materially changed'.

I do apologise. I was under the distinct impression that you felt that Scotland should remain in the UK rather than the EU due to the fact that rUK is Scotland's largest trading partner ( doom, disaster, crisis etc ).

So what you're really saying is that if the UK gets a good deal with the EU, there will be little difference of note should Scotland be independent regarding tarriffs etc. Since the EU/including an iScotland and the UK would be trading nicely all round with each other anyway ? Good to know.

We went over this many times, I don't know why you've now listened to some random person rather than myself and your own self over the course of many posts and weeks. Very odd.

See above.

I thought we'd both come to the same conclusion regarding indy2 being a consequence of full-fat brexit if it comes to pass, and in the full-fat brexit scenario rUK and iScotland trade would undoubtedly suffer. Both would suffer. The topic of this thread however is not about the rUK but about iScotland, which is why I don't want to get bogged down in details about how 'it'll hurt the UK too!', it's a very valid and poignant issue for an independent Scotland under current circumstances that really needs to be addressed by those urging an independent Scotland within the EU.

Full fat Brexit is a 100% guaranteed indy ref 2. But it would seem, perhaps not yourself although you've made a good impression of it, one of the key arguments against will trade between Scotland and rUK should independence occur. Ruth Davidson certainly seems to be going down this path very vocally at the present time. I don't see the harm in people pointing out that any tarriffs that hurt trade between iScotland and rUK. Would also be hitting rUK/EU trade just as hard if there if rUK can't negotiate a good deal. The Leave campaign said a good deal with the EU would be a cake walk. Is this not going to happen then ?

I'm not longer quite sure if remaining in the single market will be enough to stop a second referendum, and the very fact of leaving the EU itself may trigger one at some point in the near future.

I say this simply because I can see the sudden frantic burst of activity that has arisen over the last few weeks from all independence groups. Conferences, listening exercises, SNP MPs/MSP's/MEP's meeting next week to discuss, town hall meetings on Currency options and the Common Weal and other organisations producing papers and in-depth analysis on reducing deficits with more to come. ( <-- the SNP have some catching up to do publically with this, one can assume however they are working behind the scenes on similar ).

Pro-independence grassroots activists galvanising after Brexit shock THE Scottish Independence Convention is set to relaunch two years to the day from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
An event on 18 September, hosted by pro-independence stalwart Elaine C Smith will hear from speakers and performance artists in the St Lukes venue in Glasgow as a prelude to a full blown conference in the city’s Raddission Blue Hotel in January 2017.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9166/exclusive-elaine-c-smith-host-scottish-independence-convention-reconvenes

Very lively #ScottishCurrency Q&A with many diverse views, wrapping up now (don't think folk want to go home ��) https://t.co/9d38Fmle9G

NICOLA Sturgeon is to launch the SNP’s long-awaited "summer initiative" on independence with a hard-nosed look at where the Yes side must improve to win next time. The First Minister will start the "national conversation" in Stirling this week, at an away-day with her MSPs, MPs and MEPs.

...The source said the initiative would look at how spending priorities could change after independence using future North Sea oil revenue and money saved from scrapping Trident.
However it would also consider the tougher questions facing the Yes movement, including the perceived weaknesses in 2014 around the currency, economic growth and the deficit

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14709295.Revealed__First_Minister_Nicola_Sturgeon_s_plan_to_win_indyref2/

Shakethedisease

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Any proof for your last statement?
Since every time Wee Krankie has approached "The EU" so far she has been packed off with a proverbial flea in her ear.

Been reading the Express have we ?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I do apologise. I was under the distinct impression that you felt that Scotland should remain in the UK rather than the EU due to the fact that rUK is Scotland's largest trading partner ( doom, disaster, crisis etc ).

So what you're really saying is that if the UK gets a good deal with the EU, there will be little difference of note should Scotland be independent regarding tarriffs etc. Since the EU/including an iScotland and the UK would be trading nicely all round with each other anyway ? Good to know.

See above.

Full fat Brexit is a 100% guaranteed indy ref 2. But it would seem, perhaps not yourself although you've made a good impression of it, one of the key arguments against will trade between Scotland and rUK should independence occur. Ruth Davidson certainly seems to be going down this path very vocally at the present time. I don't see the harm in people pointing out that any tarriffs that hurt trade between iScotland and rUK. Would also be hitting rUK/EU trade just as hard if there if rUK can't negotiate a good deal. The Leave campaign said a good deal with the EU would be a cake walk. Is this not going to happen then ?

I'm not longer quite sure if remaining in the single market will be enough to stop a second referendum, and the very fact of leaving the EU itself may trigger one at some point in the near future.

I say this simply because I can see the sudden frantic burst of activity that has arisen over the last few weeks from all independence groups. Conferences, listening exercises, SNP MPs/MSP's/MEP's meeting next week to discuss, town hall meetings on Currency options and the Common Weal and other organisations producing papers and in-depth analysis on reducing deficits with more to come. ( <-- the SNP have some catching up to do publically with this, one can assume however they are working behind the scenes on similar ).

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9166/exclusive-elaine-c-smith-host-scottish-independence-convention-reconvenes

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14709295.Revealed__First_Minister_Nicola_Sturgeon_s_plan_to_win_indyref2/

If the UK gets a good deal, there is no need for another indy ref apart from those who staunchly believe that Scotland should be independent for no other reason than it should be independent. The circumstances in which the vote in 2014 took place would be similar if not almost indistinguishable from a good deal between the UK and the EU.

If the UK gets a bad deal or no deal, then in my opinion that's a good reason to suggest that Scotland should be allowed to decide the direction they want to take (indy 2). In such a scenario trade between iScotland in the EU and the rUK would take a massive hit, Scotland coming out worse as it's so heavily reliant on rUK trade, almost 6 times as much as with the EU.

I see no reason why Scots would vote for independence if the UK gets a good deal with the EU. If that happens the subject is pretty much dead for a few decades I'd guess. Apart of course for those who believe Scotland should be independent just because.

Now if that takes place and the UK left the EU, Scotland remained in the UK, it then becomes even harder for the indy movement. At that point you would be back to voting to leave the UK and the deal with the EU. There would be no talk of 'remaining' since you would have left with the rest of us. It's very much now or never it seems, and the winds are far from favourable.

CLAPTON

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

If the UK gets a bad deal or no deal, then in my opinion that's a good reason to suggest that Scotland should be allowed to decide the direction they want to take (indy 2). In such a scenario trade between iScotland in the EU and the rUK would take a massive hit, Scotland coming out worse as it's so heavily reliant on rUK trade, almost 6 times as much as with the EU.

.

the only way that scotland - UK trade would suffer is if the iscotland decided to impose tariffs on the rUK.

there is no possibility that rUK would impose tariffs on scotland except in retaliation for action from iscotland.
Remember it's the EU that imposes import tariffs on the rest of the world (except the 28 EU countries) and not the UK.

TrickyTree83

Perhaps I wasn't clear. That was exactly the point I was making.

On a very basic level:

No tariffs, no reason for indy.

Tariffs and indy begs the question of whose trade is more important to you as a nation.

Edit: oh and iScotland wouldn't decide on its tariffs if its in the EU, membership of which underpins the whole reasoning behind calls for indy 2.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Perhaps I wasn't clear. That was exactly the point I was making.

On a very basic level:

No tariffs, no reason for indy.

Tariffs and indy begs the question of whose trade is more important to you as a nation.

Edit: oh and iScotland wouldn't decide on its tariffs if its in the EU, membership of which underpins the whole reasoning behind calls for indy 2.

Was someone asleep from 2011 to 2014 ? 45% of the electorate in 2014 voted out of the UK regardless of the prospect of being outside the EU or not and regardless of future trade with the rUK.

Notwithstanding there's a fair old swathe of people in Scotland who would vote to stay in the UK no matter what of that 55% who voted No last time. It's only going to take another 200,000 or so to change their minds next time round, EU nationals among them.

And to be absolutely honest, there's something a little bit irksome about having to go along with absolutely everything the rest of the UK vote for, even for Scottish Labour voters. Tories in power yet again, out of the EU etc etc. There comes a time when some red lines really do have to be drawn politically and other solutions sought.

Is becoming apparent that Westminster and the next election cycle have already scared Corbyn and Smith enough to slam the door completely on working with Scottish MP's. They have no idea they damage they keep doing in the spirit of Miliband ( would rather a Tory Govt than work with the MP's Scots vote for ).. to the union itself when they do that. Is getting laughable. They and the Tories should keep it up !

Richard Bacon, Tory MP for South Norfolk, tells #BBIF: 'If Brexit results in Scotland leaving the Union it's a price worth paying'

Tarriffs, and trade with the UK is one of the last things left along with GERS to cling to. Hence the feeding frenzy every year when it comes out. Other than those, there are still plenty of reasons for independence. But if rUK is going down after Brexit, and it's still an if. It won't be taking Scotland with it. Certainly not when Scotland didn't vote for it.

ps Is unlikely the UK will get a good deal from the EU.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Was someone asleep from 2011 to 2014 ? 45% of the electorate in 2014 voted out of the UK regardless of the prospect of being outside the EU or not and regardless of future trade with the rUK.

Notwithstanding there's a fair old swathe of people in Scotland who would vote to stay in the UK no matter what of that 55% who voted No last time. It's only going to take another 200,000 or so to change their minds next time round, EU nationals among them.

And to be absolutely honest, there's something a little bit irksome about having to go along with absolutely everything the rest of the UK vote for, even for Scottish Labour voters. Tories in power yet again, out of the EU etc etc. There comes a time when some red lines really do have to be drawn politically and other solutions sought.

Is becoming apparent that Westminster and the next election cycle have already scared Corbyn and Smith enough to slam the door completely on working with Scottish MP's. They have no idea they damage they keep doing in the spirit of Miliband ( would rather a Tory Govt than work with the MP's Scots vote for ).. to the union itself when they do that. Is getting laughable. They and the Tories should keep it up !

Tarriffs, and trade with the UK is one of the last things left along with GERS to cling to. Hence the feeding frenzy every year when it comes out. Other than those, there are still plenty of reasons for independence. But if rUK is going down after Brexit, and it's still an if. It won't be taking Scotland with it. Certainly not when Scotland didn't vote for it.

ps Is unlikely the UK will get a good deal from the EU.

all great stuff

which begs the question : why aren't the polls showing 60-70% in favour of iscotland.
why isn't nicola demanding a new ref now?

TrickyTree83

CLAPTON wrote: »

all great stuff

which begs the question : why aren't the polls showing 60-70% in favour of iscotland.
why isn't nicola demanding a new ref now?

Because it's not the case, it's just a perception, a nationalist one.