The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

TrickyTree83

Utter rubbish, Corbyn is a disaster waiting to happen, labour need to take 50 seats from the Conservatives, it's not going to happen when you ostracise centre ground voters with socialist rhetoric.

Now that's out of the way.

I find it astonishing that the nationalists on this thread continually pat each other on the back at their perception of how bad unionists are and the apparent lack of debate. We've tried. Time and time again I have tried to make the economic case for remaining in the UK. The EU is nothing to Scotland in terms of trade. So if brexit is a full fat brexit, it's a stark choice for you all.

The only argument I seem to get back is to wait and see. Well we waited for this set of GERS figures and not much has changed has it? The black hole still exists, the UK is still Scotland's biggest trading partner and Nicola's red lines still mean an indy ref if there's no single market access. Unless she's changed her tune on that recently?

Show everyone a scenario where Scotland isn't worse off out of the UK and in the EU and there won't be any argument against independence will there. Until then it's just words and feelings, last i checked they don't pay mortgages, bills or put food on the table.

And if you want to live in a society like that, Venezuela is the place to be, why subject the other ~50% of Scottish people to hardship because you believe being able to make decisions about the reserved powers warrants hardship. It is almost Marxist.

Thrugelmir

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I think Theresa will probably bottle the snap election. She's leaving it pretty late to call one and the ghost of Gordon Brown is wafting around her head.

No need for an election, so there's no bottling. Wouldn't be fair on the electorate either with the Labour party in complete melt down.

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I think Theresa will probably bottle the snap election. She's leaving it pretty late to call one and the ghost of Gordon Brown is wafting around her head.

While I would rather that the Tories had a few more years of pi$$ing people off with Project Fear a snap election may not be anything like the disaster for Labour anti-Corbynites are predicting.

Which is of course what they're all worried about. The PLP would rather lose with Jeremy as leader than win with him.

I don't know if you can see/hear this on vine/twitter but I think it's fairly clear what Scottish Labour members think of Dugdale. Owen's face is a picture of bewilderment.

Ouch - Owen Smith says "I think Kezia is doing a brilliant job" and gets biggest laugh of the night so far

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/768878114390810629?lang=en-gb

Libby Brooks ‏@libby_brooks 2m2 minutes ago Glasgow, Scotland Much ovating for Corbyn's closing statement. Biggest cheer for Owen is when he says 'we could stick with JC', drowning out his 'or...'

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Now that's out of the way.

I find it astonishing that the nationalists on this thread continually pat each other on the back at their perception of how bad unionists are and the apparent lack of debate. We've tried. Time and time again I have tried to make the economic case for remaining in the UK. The EU is nothing to Scotland in terms of trade. So if brexit is a full fat brexit, it's a stark choice for you all.

Yes it is. I can't see where anyone said any different throughout this thread. It's a choice between the EU or the UK. A tough choice for some.

The only argument I seem to get back is to wait and see. Well we waited for this set of GERS figures and not much has changed has it? The black hole still exists, the UK is still Scotland's biggest trading partner and Nicola's red lines still mean an indy ref if there's no single market access. Unless she's changed her tune on that recently?

Changed her tune ? Not really. What has changed however, is that Leave/Tories seem to have gone into super slow motion/semi-paralysis mode where it comes to Brexit and what it means for everyone in the UK. Therefore so has Brexit politics on the possible consequences.

Show everyone a scenario where Scotland isn't worse off out of the UK and in the EU and there won't be any argument against independence will there. Until then it's just words and feelings, last i checked they don't pay mortgages, bills or put food on the table.

And if you want to live in a society like that, Venezuela is the place to be, why subject the other ~50% of Scottish people to hardship because you believe being able to make decisions about the reserved powers warrants hardship. It is almost Marxist.

You're still in doom and disaster mode. Almost like a Remain voter just prior to the Brexit vote. It doesn't suit you much.
GERS has been the usual borefest of the same old characters ( Yes and No ) coming out with the same old yearly soundbites. I wasn't really impressed with Derek McKay last night on tv to be honest. He seemed nervous and nowhere near as chilled as Salmond would've been, nor as earnest as Swinney. I hope he improves on his media delivery.

However, there does seem to have been a real shift a bit deeper in terms of real analysis on what can actually be done in terms of shifting a deficit within an independent Scotland. I've seen a few pieces presented on Twitter/blogs which have made for very interesting reading. Different approaches and methodologies of course. But sound ideas. Unfortunately none of them will ever see the light of day on any sort of media platform. But GERS itself was used as a tool to work from rather than one instantly dismissed. Although most agree it's very flawed.

Here's a taster from just one of them. Do feel free to read the rest of the article, it's quite long.

For example, in the very near future we will publish a paper on Scotland's share of UK debt. In that paper we will show simply how even at the highest level of debt Scotland might inherit, a straightforward process of refinancing would save an independent Scotland a touch under £1bn.

We can save another £1bn from defence if we spend the proportion of GDP that a normal country does (without nukes) and we're confident that another billion or mibbe two can be trimmed from other UK government expenditure that an independent Scotland would not contribute to by taking an additive rather than a subtractive approach to producing a Scottish budget (explained in the column I linked to above).

Devising and modelling an efficient Scottish tax system will probably bring in another billion or more. We think a properly devised customs and excise system could raise perhaps another half billion. This sensible clutch of policy work ought to be able to remove perhaps a third of the deficit – not through jiggery-pokery or whataboutery but by rolling up our sleeves and engaging with the problem....

...But in some ways, over the long term, it may not be the biggest problem for an independent Scotland which comes out of GERS. The reason that the other problem isn't being highlighted by unionists is because the UK is in an even bigger mess. It's not the fiscal deficit but the current account or balance of trade deficit.

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/9154/robin-mcalpine-independence-be-taken-seriously-we-must-behave-seriously

Imho there should be no ONE white paper or anything like it if there's a second referendum. There should be numerous ones presented from many independence leaning entities and organisations. Not only would it dilute the notion that the SNP are the only act in town going regarding independence - thus putting far too much focus/demonisation tactics onto Sturgeon and 'personality' ( as happened to Salmond/Corbyn currently ). It would also emphasise that once independence happens, Scots will have choices which are entirely the point of independence in the first place. Not an SNP dictatorship forevermore <--- Again, common thinking and presentation from BetterTogether.

I hope Nicola is taking note but am sure she already knows. Lessen the media focus on the SNP next time round and have others presenting their ideas wide and far too. Not least on ( so far ) imaginary Scottish deficits.

elantan

I do think labour for Yes we're so under utilised last time, used to frustrate me no end

TrickyTree83

Surely before anyone can carry on there needs to be agreement that GERS isn't imaginary and that to be taken seriously as the URL suggests one should act seriously.

Where is the mention in those articles of any potential increase in expenditure when Scotland becomes responsible for things currently provided by the UK as a whole?

I'm all for acting seriously, so let us do just that. Without doubt Scotland can cut services and make savings, I've maintained the same stance, these cuts will obviously eat into the deficit implied by GERS. Whilst GERS may not be correct the broader implication is time and time again that there is a deficit. So after cuts take place tax efficiency and rises can help with the rest of a shortfall. Then what about the increase in spending required to patrol the coastlines, operate defence and intelligence services, etc... Does that mean more cuts (to those services?) or tax rises to maintain lesser services?

Without quitting my job and pouring over it all in depth I feel it's still fair to ask, will Scotland be better off out of the UK in any scenario? That's essentially what will be on the average voters mind, and it would appear the average gut feeling reaction to that question would be no.

Those willing to overlook the possible increase in expenditure plus a probable deficit probably don't see it as a problem, such as that article author you linked to, they probably won't ever be convinced otherwise and will always hold on to whispers of hope from anyone including the guy who props up the bar most weekday evenings so long as it conforms to the agreed agenda.

Shakethedisease

elantan wrote: »

I do think labour for Yes we're so under utilised last time, used to frustrate me no end

Once Labour supporting media ie almost all of it, painted them as an SNP 'front' it was basically all over for them in terms of attention.

Interesting trivia tonight though in a free for all local election.

Michael Gray ‏@GrayInGlasgow 20m20 minutes ago Scottish Labour have won tonight's by-election in the Lochs, Fife. Their candidate, Mary Lockhart, supports Scottish independence.

We need more of these people front and centre next time. Greens too. Patrick Harvie was brilliant with the little coverage he got last time round. So surprisingly was Tommy Sheridan from the far left. However, once again the media may just try and paint them out of the picture as if they don't exist.

I see all the Scottish newspapers are reporting terrible downturns today in readership....;)

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Surely before anyone can carry on there needs to be agreement that GERS isn't imaginary and that to be taken seriously as the URL suggests one should act seriously.

Where is the mention in those articles of any potential increase in expenditure when Scotland becomes responsible for things currently provided by the UK as a whole?

I'm all for acting seriously, so let us do just that. Without doubt Scotland can cut services and make savings, I've maintained the same stance, these cuts will obviously eat into the deficit implied by GERS. Whilst GERS may not be correct the broader implication is time and time again that there is a deficit. So after cuts take place tax efficiency and rises can help with the rest of a shortfall. Then what about the increase in spending required to patrol the coastlines, operate defence and intelligence services, etc... Does that mean more cuts (to those services?) or tax rises to maintain lesser services?

Without quitting my job and pouring over it all in depth I feel it's still fair to ask, will Scotland be better off out of the UK in any scenario? That's essentially what will be on the average voters mind, and it would appear the average gut feeling reaction to that question would be no.

Those willing to overlook the possible increase in expenditure plus a probable deficit probably don't see it as a problem, such as that article author you linked to, they probably won't ever be convinced otherwise and will always hold on to whispers of hope from anyone including the guy who props up the bar most weekday evenings so long as it conforms to the agreed agenda.

GERS isn't imaginary. But it does show the estimated state of Scotland's finances within a UK context. Some choose to believe that GERS are the reason Scotland needs to stay within the UK. Some choose to believe that if things are THAT bad, then Scotland should leave and take full powers in order to address any deficit. Within the UK, there is little hope of any deficit being addressed fully. Brexit just piles on the risks of it getting much worse.

This economic argument is the only thread holding the UK together at the present time. The political case is long gone as long as Labour are.

The Herald/Iain McWhirter today.



As for this :-

. Then what about the increase in spending required to patrol the coastlines, operate defence and intelligence services, etc..

Scotland is already well overcharged for what exists in terms of defence. 3.4 bn ? Compared to Ireland..

By 2015 the budget had been cut to €885 Million and is projected to stay at that level until 2017 according to the latest Department of Finance report.[2]

Some savings here and there I think. Certainly not increases in many cases.

Leanne1812

I read a comment earlier that asked why Norway, a country with roughly the same population as Scotland have a 400 billion oil fund yet we have nothing in the uk. Makes you wonder about successive government mismanagement. We look to government to make good choices and to build on prosperity but it would appear their experts & economists have made some pretty poor choices.

I posted this to offer something to ponder. I don't want to start a whole new debate on oil is dead etc.

CLAPTON

Leanne1812 wrote: »

I read a comment earlier that asked why Norway, a country with roughly the same population as Scotland have a 400 billion oil fund yet we have nothing in the uk. Makes you wonder about successive government mismanagement. We look to government to make good choices and to build on prosperity but it would appear their experts & economists have made some pretty poor choices.

I posted this to offer something to ponder. I don't want to start a whole new debate on oil is dead etc.

99.99%of people altready know the answer but what is, is

if the people of scotland decide to vote for iscotland then you will be able to build up a huge sovereign fund like norway : you will of course need to have a budget surplus first : this will need huge cuts in your welfare spending and large tax rises. its just simple maths that every scots child should learn.