The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

It is all a matter of timing:

When or if discussion will take place on social deals for Scotland alone week take place.

Do the Scottish population want a referendum (maybe minor point for the SNP but an important one)

I think at least 60% have at least considered the possibility given the result of the vote.

When or if a legal referendum might be sanctioned by the UK

I doesn't need to be legally sanctioned. The EU one wasn't. It was advisory.

When or if the EU are prepared to discuss what you want them to discuss

Plus a few others

I think your lot, lost in your plotting, tend to forget that Scotland is not a country with a track record of living within its means, both of which prevent any national grouping from having meaningful negotiations.

On my view the best you can hope for is a referendum when the two options are fully on the table I.e. when the Brexit negotiations are complete and Parliament is asked to approve them. That would be an honest milestone at least so that Scots could choose with the full facts on the table and not be asked to jump over another cliff into the unknown.

In my view, and you can take this to the bank. All of the signals coming from the Scottish Govt/SNP and comments from the EU are that any Scottish referendum would have to be held in the two years between Article 50 being triggered and the UK leaving. The EU at the point of Article 50 being triggered will more than likely will at this point also state what they're willing to offer to Scotland in terms of any deals and opt outs/ins.

But there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that Scotland will sit and wait until the UK negotiates and leaves the EU before having another referendum. In my view if/when Article 50 is triggered, by the end of the two years the word 'Scotland' will be completely removed from it.

.string.

Which Bank did you have in mind Shakey?

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

They won't be able to stay.

However even if the EU made agreements to transfer membership the UK will conclude article 50 before the Union is broken up. So Scotland as part of the UK will be taken out of the EU as things currently stand.

Not if a referendum is held shortly after Article 50 is triggered. There's two full years for that.

You need a legally binding referendum to do it in the required time frame. May has said you're not getting one.

I doesn't need to be legally binding. The EU one wasn't.

After article 50 where will UK government priority lie, negotiating with the EU or with Scotland on the breakup of the Union if a referendum was held, and if Scotland voted for independence?

Untangling 40 years of union in 2 years or untangling over 300 years of union in less than 2 so Scotland can remain?

Please, where is your position not full of holes, explain it to me because it just seems ridiculous.

No it's yours that's full of holes. I wasn't in favour of having a referendum in Scotland over the next 4 or 5 years and certainly not off the back of a Brexit as it seemed far too messy and complex. I stated this several times in the run up here. But then I didn't think that there would actually be a Brexit. It's different now.

Scotland needs to choose between the UK or the EU. We can't have both. If the EU give the green light then it's looking likely it will be the EU. We can then all untangle things together. No one said it would be an easy task.

I personally think May is scared to trigger Article 50 because she knows it will mean the break up of the UK. Sturgeon won't take any notice of what Westminster will or won't sanction in terms of referenda. And May knows to try and stop one would only boost independence support even higher.

The SNP is certainly moving things along very quickly at the moment.

16/07/16

The SNP is considering plans to ditch its policy on an independent Scotland sharing the pound and replace it with a new currency pegged to sterling. The Sunday Herald can reveal that senior SNP MPs are reviewing the party’s currency position and a report is expected to be issued to First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Creating a 'Scottish pound' would form a key plank of the SNP’s new drive for independence if it was adopted by the party leadership.

The SNP manifesto for May’s Holyrood election kept open the option of a second referendum and the recent Brexit vote has fuelled calls for another plebiscite.

However, the Sunday Herald has learned that the SNP were reviewing the currency policy in an independent Scotland even before Brexit. Senior MPs, including outgoing deputy leader Stewart Hosie and the Economy team, have appraised various alternatives and it is understood currency union is no longer the preferred option.
All options are being mulled over, but the plan attracting support is a separate currency pegged to the pound, which means an exchange rate fixed against the value of sterling.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14624205.SNP_considering_creation_of__Scottish_pound__in_event_of_independence/?commentSort=score

And the Trident vote today won't be helping matters either.

Shakethedisease

.string. wrote: »

Which Bank did you have in mind Shakey?

Your personal memory bank.

There's not going to be a situation whereby Scotland simply sits and waits for the UK to exit before acting.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Not if a referendum is held shortly after Article 50 is triggered. There's two full years for that.

I doesn't need to be legally binding. The EU one wasn't.

No it's yours that's full of holes. I wasn't in favour of having a referendum in Scotland over the next 4 or 5 years and certainly not off the back of a Brexit as it seemed far too messy and complex. I stated this several times in the run up here. But then I didn't think that there would actually be a Brexit. It's different now.

Scotland needs to choose between the UK or the EU. We can't have both. If the EU give the green light then it's looking likely it will be the EU. We can then all untangle things together. No one said it would be an easy task.

I personally think May is scared to trigger Article 50 because she knows it will mean the break up of the UK. Sturgeon won't take any notice of what Westminster will or won't sanction in terms of referenda. And May knows to try and stop one would only boost independence support even higher.

The SNP is certainly moving things along very quickly at the moment.

16/07/16http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14624205.SNP_considering_creation_of__Scottish_pound__in_event_of_independence/?commentSort=score

And the Trident vote today won't be helping matters either.

So you think untangling the Union will be quicker than negotiating an exit from the EU.

And you think the UK will

A) recognise a non-legally binding referendum?

and...

negotiate with the Scottish government on breaking up the Union over and above the EU negotiations?

Yet it's my argument that is supposedly full of holes?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Your personal memory bank.

There's not going to be a situation whereby Scotland simply sits and waits for the UK to exit before acting.

You seem to think Scotland is sovereign. It's not you know.

There's no legal course of action the Scottish government can take to gain independence without the consent of the UK government short of asking the UN to recognise them, how long do you think that's going to take.

I think you need to accept it's not going to be a re-run of Stirling where Scotland dominates all. You're 5 million people, the UK government will absolutely prefer negotiating with the EU before Scotland and then put the deal we get to the Scottish people at that point and no earlier. It plays into the UK governments hands, it sets out the real options to the Scottish people and allows the possible breakup of the Union to be done in an orderly fashion if it comes to that. The UK government will not be pandering to the whims of Scottish nationalism whilst they're trying to sort out leaving the EU, it makes no sense for them to do so. Scotland isn't the only group of people affected by the breakup of the Union, despite what Scottish nationalists may think. And if the relationship is so poisonous now I'd guess they would favour the people they do represent, i.e. rUK.

I would expect no less from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland if England was in that position.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You seem to think Scotland is sovereign. It's not you know.

There's no legal course of action the Scottish government can take to gain independence without the consent of the UK government short of asking the UN to recognise them, how long do you think that's going to take.

I think you need to accept it's not going to be a re-run of Stirling where Scotland dominates all. You're 5 million people, the UK government will absolutely prefer negotiating with the EU before Scotland and then put the deal we get to the Scottish people at that point and no earlier. It plays into the UK governments hands, it sets out the real options to the Scottish people and allows the possible breakup of the Union to be done in an orderly fashion if it comes to that. The UK government will not be pandering to the whims of Scottish nationalism whilst they're trying to sort out leaving the EU, it makes no sense for them to do so. Scotland isn't the only group of people affected by the breakup of the Union, despite what Scottish nationalists may think. And if the relationship is so poisonous now I'd guess they would favour the people they do represent, i.e. rUK.

I would expect no less from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland if England was in that position.

As someone once said 'Scotland is in a union, not a suicide pact'. All unions are dissolvable as the referendum result on 23rd June more than proves. The UK Govt doesn't need to pander to anything, England and Wales have decided to leave the EU. Scotland wants to stay. If that means dissolving the UK because more people ( not the SNP, people ) in Scotland wish to remain in the EU rather than the UK then ultimately, that's exactly what's going to happen.

I fail to see what your problem is. It's clear that most in England and Wales prioritised leaving the EU over the possible ramifications this would have constitutionally in the UK. And that's fine. But it works both ways in terms of political priorities. Scotland might have differing views on the EU.

That it seems the best reason you can come up with for Scotland staying in the UK and being taken out of the EU is 'well we won't allow a referendum for fear of the result' says it all really. If a majority Scots want to leave the UK then there is little point in the UK keeping them there anyway.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

So you think untangling the Union will be quicker than negotiating an exit from the EU.

And you think the UK will

A) recognise a non-legally binding referendum?

and...

negotiate with the Scottish government on breaking up the Union over and above the EU negotiations?

Yet it's my argument that is supposedly full of holes?

And you seem to think that Scots should just shut up and suck it up. That's a little unreasonable of you. Once again, Scotland isn't 'part of the UK' it's a nation in a union with England, Wales and NI.

I didn't mention anything about speed of negotiations. However, as I've said, it's very likely that once Article 50 is triggered, then the Scottish Govt will trigger their own advisory referendum. As you can see from the article above citing currency, the SNP are already putting the bricks very quickly in place regarding shooting all the old 2014 'what will your currency be, you'll be out of the EU' foxes down. There will be no Scottish Labour/Better Together to oppose in Scotland next time either. Certainly not if Kezia Dugdale wants to retain any MSP's at the next Holyrood election.

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

But there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that Scotland will sit and wait until the UK negotiates and leaves the EU before having another referendum.

Do you expect the Scottish people to vote to leave the UK before they have an answer to what actual model they are going to be leaving?

What will happen if the vote is to go but then the new rUK model is actually better than expected? How will the people of Scotland react to that?

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

And you seem to think that Scots should just shut up and suck it up. That's a little unreasonable of you. Once again, Scotland isn't 'part of the UK' it's a nation in a union with England, Wales and NI.

I didn't mention anything about speed of negotiations. However, as I've said, it's very likely that once Article 50 is triggered, then the Scottish Govt will trigger their own advisory referendum. As you can see from the article above citing currency, the SNP are already putting the bricks very quickly in place regarding shooting all the old 2014 'what will your currency be, you'll be out of the EU' foxes down. There will be no Scottish Labour/Better Together to oppose in Scotland next time either. Certainly not if Kezia Dugdale wants to retain any MSP's at the next Holyrood election.

The nation of Scotland surrendered its sovereignty, which is the whole issue we're talking about here. So there's no power in Scotland to secede from the UK without the UK government approving it unless Scotland goes to the UN for recognition under self-determination rules.

In the situation you describe you appear to think what's good for Scotland is what's good for the UK, but that's not true. Regardless of the steps Holyrood takes to prepare it's not going to happen until the UK is ready for it to happen since there's 2 parties in this argument and the rules are not set out like they are in article 50.

The fairest option for all would appear to be for the UK to leave as a whole (as that was what was on the ballot paper) and then the option via referendum of the current UK status outside the EU or re-joining the EU after Scottish independence.

Obviously Nicola is going to want to have her cake and eat it. However I would think since Scots voted to stay in the UK knowing a Tory manifesto had an EU in/out referendum in it, and the Scottish government promised to abide by the result of the 2014 independence referendum there will be little appetite to do this on the SNP's terms only.

Edit: Do you really think it's unreasonable for the UK government to consider 60 million of its citizens that will remain in the UK more important than the needs of 5 million who want to leave? Or should they be equal, in which case it'll happen when the UK as a whole is ready. I don't recall any other people in the Union getting an option on independence recently, yet you're saying the UK government telling the Scottish government to wait until everything is settled is unreasonable?

With all due respect, your argument appears to be full of holes and your position is purely Scottish nationalist in every aspect discussed so far with little regard for anyone else you share the Union with.