The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

Shakethedisease

wotsthat wrote: »

Thought experiment. Today the SNP suffer a drubbing - they only get 10 Westminster seats. They're humiliated. Embarrassed. Nicola Sturgeon can't even get on Strictly Come Dancing.

Would that have an impact on the chances of another referendum?

None. They had 6 when they called the last one. It's Scottish Parliament policy now and that's what it'll come down to in the end v's Westminster.

It'll all depend how Brexit, that still great unknown variable a year on, goes. If it looks like hitting Scottish jobs and pockets hard no one will give a flying hoot how many Westminster MP's the SNP have. The Scottish Parliament have a fairly won democratic card to play, and play it they will if Scotland is out of the Single Market.

Should Westminster deny the democratic legitimacy of the Scottish Parliament itself then that's when it will all get really messy.

Everyone understandably is focused purely on party politics at the moment. But during the next while and in the end it'll come down to how good or bad Brexit goes, and if Westminster really will start trying to deny the entire point of Holyrood's existence.

Do you think they will go down that route ? And if so, the outcome ?

Mortgagefreeman

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Do you think they will go down that route ? And if so, the outcome ?

Continued moaning from those North of the border.

wotsthat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

None. They had 6 when they called the last one. It's Scottish Parliament policy now and that's what it'll come down to in the end v's Westminster.

It'll all depend how Brexit, that still great unknown variable a year on, goes. If it looks like hitting Scottish jobs and pockets hard no one will give a flying hoot how many Westminster MP's the SNP have. The Scottish Parliament have a fairly won democratic card to play, and play it they will if Scotland is out of the Single Market.

Should Westminster deny the democratic legitimacy of the Scottish Parliament itself then that's when it will all get really messy.

Everyone understandably is focused purely on party politics at the moment. But during the next while and in the end it'll come down to how good or bad Brexit goes, and if Westminster really will start trying to deny the entire point of Holyrood's existence.

Do you think they will go down that route ? And if so, the outcome ?

The way the SNP manifesto is worded is that the people of Scotland get a referendum however Brexit turns out. Anyway, however Brexit turns out do you see Sturgeon ever saying it's a good outcome?

If the SNP get 6 Westminster seats do you honestly think that'll have zero impact on the chances of a referendum?

Shaka_Zulu

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It'll all depend how Brexit, that still great unknown variable a year on, goes.

So if/when Brexit is shown to be working well what is the next grievance you lot have lined up?

Or are you telling us that is it?

I hope we do have another referendum aand the sooner the better but there had better be "triple lock" clause in there saying no more for 100 years hopefully but at least 25 years and we can put this sh1te to bed for the rest of my natural.

Pious_Scot

Not long now until we all find out just how many seats the SNP will lose, with predictions in the media running at a dozen.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Posting in itself is not a flaming spiral and I would say that your style is not similar to mine.
It does remind me of a poster who has not showed up today though.
What did you do so wrong to get PPR'd and have to create a new account?

Anyway, voting is underway, we'll see the results shortly.

SNP will return as the major party and the triple lock will be secured

Any comment on Scottish SME's view on the single market being vitally important for their businesses, jobs, prosperity and economic growth?

Right on cue as I said earlier (Now just awaiting the "flaming spiral" attempt from ISTL that he so often says he will not participate in ........... but still posts nonetheless.) ......... there it is.

Are you attempting to troll me?
If not why do you persist?
I will point this out again should you continue this tactic.
Why too do you of all people ask about PPR's - not do you not realise that discussing these is not allowed? And is it really coincidence that those vehemently disagreeing with you seem to suffer that as a result?

Now to return to relevant matters, it has been explained before why your dreamed-of SNP so-called triple lock is meaningless, only a few posts earlier in this thread.
It is up there, see if you can find it.
And why should I comment on the Scottish SME's - you ignore all these comments from everybody any way unless they suit your bias.

IveSeenTheLight

Lol, calm down..........

Your right, not long now till the SNP return as the majority party in Scotland and probably the Conservatives in the rUK

Shakethedisease

wotsthat wrote: »

The way the SNP manifesto is worded is that the people of Scotland get a referendum however Brexit turns out. Anyway, however Brexit turns out do you see Sturgeon ever saying it's a good outcome?

If the SNP get 6 Westminster seats do you honestly think that'll have zero impact on the chances of a referendum?

The Scottish people get a choice. That's the point and what the Tories etc are trying to prevent. Just holding a referendum doesn't automatically mean a Yes vote but given the disparity between the first indy referendum ( stay in the UK ) and the EU referendum vote ( stay in the EU/Single Market ) then it's a question that needs resolved one way or the other.

This, if Brexit goes badly, isn't about the SNP. It's about Scottish voters choosing which future direction they wish to take. In 2016 they voted to keep an exit door open. So no, I don't think it really matters how many SNP MP's are returned tonight and tomorrow. It'll all be well forgotten about in 18 months time if Brexit is the disaster some say it will be.

If Westminster wishes to stop a second referendum, then they'll now have to go against Scottish democracy, the Scottish parliament, everything it stands for and the people it represents. It's a convenient narrative that this is all about the SNP. But once Holyrood voted it through, it's now the will of the Scottish Parliament. Westminster will now have to deny that the Scottish Parliament holds any legitimacy in order to refuse a second referendum should it be called. It's not party political anymore it's constitutional and now goes well beyond the SNP. No one will give a stuff about SNP Westminster MP's when the time comes and Brexit unfolds. It's all about Holyrood.

Sturgeon's manifesto isn't designed to mandate a second referendum in itself. It's designed to stop other parties using these GE results against one in the coming few weeks and months. The below is where it's really at.

Scotland should have a choice about our future at the end of the Brexit process. A democratic mandate for a referendum was delivered at the Holyrood election last year. The Scottish Parliament has now underlined that mandate.

wotsthat

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Sturgeon's manifesto isn't designed to mandate a second referendum in itself. It's designed to stop other parties using these GE results against one in the coming few weeks and months.

It's designed to strengthen the mandate they already have ref the triple lock. Therefore more seats = stronger mandate. That's what the SNP think and that's why they included it.

It's good to see you and Tricky in full agreement albeit coming at it from different directions.

I haven't ignored the rest of your post by the way. I just think Brexit is a red herring and if it wasn't that it would be something else.

That exit poll isn't looking at good as you might have hoped. Ms May and Sturgeon must be sweating bricks.

Shaka_Zulu

Exit Poll:-

Con: 314
Lab: 266
SNP: 34
LDem: 14

Oops

IveSeenTheLight

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

Exit Poll:-

Con: 314
Lab: 266
SNP: 34
LDem: 14

Oops

Yes, exit poll does not look good for SNP, but still the largest party.

If the poll is correct, best thing is hung parliament and TM has to go