The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

.string.

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Interestingly, it shows the first preference tactical voting would result in: -

1. 6 additional Conservative Seats
2. 27 additional Labour seats
3. 9 additional Lib Dem seats

Do you think that is the likely outcome of this GE in Scotland?

No I think it's unlikely but it would be nice if it did.

The trend will be interesting though.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

A few points here.

No.
You avoid the point entirely.
As usual.
Oh what a surprise.

Originally Posted by A Medium Size Jock
Let me simplify how democracy here in the UK works:

Think of it as a simple show of hands?
(You said before iirc that you don't agree with binary decisions - For clarity, I'm happy with binary decisions for a binary question such as the Independence question.
What I had said earlier was that I did not think that there was a binary solution and that there were far more opportunities to explore well agree or not the choice IS binary; hand up. Or hand down.
The only other option is to do nothing - in which case you will not be counted at all.)
Yay! One down ................


Voting for say two or three main, large parties & a few smaller ones in an election.
A majority of hands for the most popular party does not necessarily equal a majority of hands from all those showing hands, does it?
It might be a majority of all those showing hands.
But it doesn't need to be.
I'll reiterate again, the Vote on June 08th is not a binary question on Independence.
There are a lot of considerations for which party to vote for.
That comes from where? Do you see independence mentioned? No. Try to concentrate. Yes considerations ..... so what? Again, try to stay on track eh?
Whereas for say a vote on independence, a majority of hands is needed.
I'm happy for a binary question on Independence that a binary responce is required.
It's folly to try and link a GE vote with the Independence vote
Again, I am not linking GE & independence votes.
I am explaining the differences.
Do pay attention.

Scotland does not consistently have such a majority.
Lets ask the question
The question is repeatedly being asked.
Look at the results.
The people say no.

End of.

My responses above.

Either you need more sleep or you are being deliberately obtuse.
Which is it?

Shaka_Zulu

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I respectfully disagree.
Do you think the SNP will not be returned as the major party in Scotland?

Let's knock this one on the head once and for all to save you dredging it up every time.

I don't think any of us on here will argue, that in all probability the SNP will have the majority of the seats in Scotland after the GE.

Great, so now we are all agreed, no need to mention it again.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shaka_Zulu wrote: »

Let's knock this one on the head once and for all to save you dredging it up every time.

I don't think any of us on here will argue, that in all probability the SNP will have the majority of the seats in Scotland after the GE.

Great, so now we are all agreed, no need to mention it again.

Don't be silly!
Every time a question needs thinking about, this will appear.
Relevant or not!
Just to use up space and frustrate and visitors to this thread.

.string.

Incidentally, on that site I linked above there is a section on polls (among other sections).

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls

There is one on independence there

Shaka_Zulu

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Such as the poll that declared that 57% would rather be independent in Europe than under a Tory government in a Brexited UK?

Is that not the same poll that declared 99.2% would rather be under a tory government than Pol Pot :rotfl:

Shakethedisease

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Another deflected question. Hurts too much, does it?

Here's another:
Do you want an independent Scotland no matter what the majority of Scots want?

So you find one poll (count them all - errr, one)- and CBA to provide even a link? Here's a list of polls on Wiki.
The latest as in yesterday shows pro-leave @ 39%, pro-remain @ 49%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

No consistent pro independence evidence there.
And there's no vote without evidence that a poll is wanted so although votes do indeed count, people should want a vote first but they don't.

That's 45% - 55% with the don't know's excluded. 3% margin of error either side, two years out from an independence vote.. and despite a continual 24/7 total onslaught over the last few months of anti-independence media, Tory leaflets, Davidson never off the telly saying 'no indy ref. ' There's no independence campaign running at the moment. Brexit is still a vague concept for a lot of voters rather than a reality.

Polls change over time. I wouldn't be too worried about indy polls right now. The time to really start watching them is the few months/weeks in the lead up to any vote. And is certainly no valid reason to be ruling out a referendum which will take place in two years time right now on the basis of polling numbers now. That would be like political parties giving up bothering campaigning on a 2022 election due to polling taken in 2020 lol.

Not really sensible is it ?

.string.

Some Data from be link I mentioned above on support for independence, hoping the format survives the copy/paste process.No it didn't but it can be read.

Date. Pollster Yes No Unsure Lead
17 Mar 2017 Panelbase 42 53 5 11
14 Mar 2017 YouGov 37 48 11 11
13 Mar 2017 Survation 43 48 9 5
06 Mar 2017 Ipsos MORI 47 46 6 1
27 Feb 2017 BMG 41 44 15 3
13 Feb 2017 Panelbase 43 50 7 7
31 Jan 2017 BMG 43 45 10 2
26 Jan 2017 Panelbase 43 51 7 8
16 Dec 0201 BMG 40 47 13 7
16 Dec 2016 YouGov 39 47 11 8
29 Nov 2016 YouGov 38 49 13 11
04 Oct 2016 BMG 39 47 15 8
15 Sep 2016 Panelbase 44 50 7 6
11 Sep 2016 Ipsos MORI 45 50 5 5
10 Sep 2016 Survation 42 48 10 6
04 Sep 2016 TNS 41 47 12 6
31 Aug 2016 YouGov 40 46 13 6

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

But you can unify opinion based on the manifesto's, policies and ideas of those parties.

Such as:

- opposition to austerity
- opposition to tax rises
- opposition to Brexit
- opposition to Scottish independence
.

I understand where you are coming from, but just from your example above, each part will be weighted differently for each persons preference.

Straight away, there is a conflict between opposition to Brexit and Opposition to Scottish Independence.

We've seen examples of anti SNP, anti Independence, now become pro Independence because of Brexit.

So its flawed thinking to summarise that there is unification across the parties (even though we have also seen for the first time a coalition between Tory and Labour at council levels)

cogito

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I understand where you are coming from, but just from your example above, each part will be weighted differently for each persons preference.

Straight away, there is a conflict between opposition to Brexit and Opposition to Scottish Independence.

We've seen examples of anti SNP, anti Independence, now become pro Independence because of Brexit.

So its flawed thinking to summarise that there is unification across the parties (even though we have also seen for the first time a coalition between Tory and Labour at council levels)

For the first time? Hasn't there been a Tory Labour coalition in Aberdeen for the last 5 years as well as in a few other places. Not to mention a couple of SNP Tory coalitions.

Had you forgotten or didn't you know?