The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

mollycat

.string. wrote: »

Please read this carefully.

Claiming that 60 odd percent of a country voted for something when they did not is incorrect. It is at best a mistake at worst deliberately misleading.

To get that particular figure correct you would have to include everyone whether they were registered or not and however old they were.

60% of those who voted ,,,, Ok but not 60% of the country.

That is what I was countering in my remark.

Hope that's clear for you.

Deliberately misleading would be my educated guess.

Yes string, 60% of those who voted, and also consider a huge chunk of that 60%, (myself included), who have accepted the majority decision. We now wish to move on and see a success of Brexit, unlike indy supporters, who would quite happily welcome and promote economic chaos on their fellow citizens, all to further their selfish obsession.

IveSeenTheLight

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

No.
Because those who vote don't think so according to polls.
They are the ones who decide what "fundamental and significant change" is, not you and not a political party.

Such as the poll that declared that 57% would rather be independent in Europe than under a Tory government in a Brexited UK?

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Do you accept that no polls consistently show that Scots want independence?

I accept that polls can be wrong and in recent years have been repeatedly proven incorrect
The only poll that counts is the democratically elected vote.

Yah_Boo_Sux wrote: »

Not intending rudeness here but do you have any life at all outside here BTW?
I mean, I pop in when I can but really?
Maybe you need to get a life outside these forums and see what's going on in the real world.
Just an idea.
You might actually become "I Have Seen The Daylight".

I do have a life, but I also like to engage.
I see the daylight right now, a beautiful albeit cloud covered day.
Fresh air filling my lungs.
The modern world really is so easy to engage and communicate.

You don;t need to worry about my life balance, I have it in control.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The FPTP, the seats, the section 30, Holyrood won't matter regarding the independence question, the vote share will. Democracies can change their opinions as nationalists keep reminding us.

The vote share will be an official statistic, verified, observed by the authorities, immeasurably better than polling, which will be used to demonstrate the appetite for independence in Scotland.

My position on vote share is not desperate, it's just an observation of reality, the obstinate denial of the reality of June 8th for the Scottish independence question for me speaks to the fragile nature of the pro-independence psyche at the moment.

The vote share your insisting on is not a question on Independence...............

Its only one of a number of issues under consideration.

Its therefore flawed to hang any hopes on the vote share in the GE as an indication of Independence desire

.string.

HornetSaver wrote:

The Scottish Government has a duty to make sure that Scotland gets the best outcome for the years to come under either indyref outcome.

Well said.

.string.

On a different tack --- I wonder:

Tactical Voting against SNP

Grass roots stuff.

Actually I think this type of thing had a role in the last GE. The Daily Mail ran a campaign identifying which marginal seats UKIP had a large, but not dominant, showing compared with the LibDem & Labour. They suggested that Ukip supporters voted Conservative in those seats I reckon it worked.

Shakethedisease

HornetSaver wrote: »

Then that would be a good time to call a Holyrood election with a pledge for a snap referendum. Whatever one's political views on Brexit (I supported Remain and while I accept that it's a done deal continue to see the idea as a car crash), the Tories did in fairness show that a snap referendum on such a big issue could be called, legislated for and conducted relatively quickly.



Shaky, I remember about a year or so ago (before June 23rd) we were debating the likely timings of a referendum, and I put it that a referendum in 2021 with independence in 2022 was the earliest plausible timeframe. I think Brexit makes that even more of a likely and mutually beneficial timeframe.

Assuming that support for independence does not drop below 2014 levels - and I have no reason whatsoever to think or imply that it will - then in my opinion unionists and nationalists actually have something in common over the timing of a referendum. Unionists want the next referendum to be decisive regardless of which way the vote goes (albeit with a strong preference for a No vote), and nationalists want it held at the time most likely to yield a Yes result. Therefore for me, autumn 2021 seems the perfect time. It should be the time at which the results of Brexit, if negative, will be starting to be or already have been quite keenly felt. It's therefore the time at which the risk of leaving the UK will seen to be at its lowest compared to the perceived reward of going independent and aligning more closely with the EU, and therefore the time at which those who want independence but felt 2014 was not the time are most likely to change views and vote Yes. On the flip side, if under these circumstances No were to win, then I would suggest that the issue would be settled for some considerable time.

I do not think May will ever say 'this is the time' to have a referendum. We'll have no during Brexit talks, no just after Brexit talks, not during transition periods, then lets wait and see for a few years and not rock the boat. Now won't ever be the time for May, nor for any unionist who fears a Yes vote is even vaguely achievable.

Once you accept that fact, as I have then the timing and the process for a second Scottish vote is laid squarely at Holyrood's door. I also accept what you're saying about independence and winning it. But imo this for Sturgeon has always been about how disasterous leaving the Single Market will be for Scotlands future economy, which is bad enough (apparently) under Westminster as it is without a Brexit to deal with on top.

She and the SNP really do fear the worst.. as did ALL the other party leaders up until the Brexit vote.. should Scotland leave the Single Market. Especially under a Conservative Govt which it seems has no interest whatsoever in listening or having any devolved governments input in the lead up to the UK leaving the EU.

So taking that into account, from Sturgeon's perspective another referendum or vote must be timed to at least try to avoid the worst of the Brexit fallout. I also don't think she gives a hoot what the polling shows now or will show two years from now, nor what any vote share will be in this GE. Her No 1 priority at this point in time is keeping Scotland within the Single Market with as little disruption as possible... while still giving Scots voters/businesses and other trade sectors as much idea as possible as to what life outside the Single Market will be like. This should be obvious to most of us by the time Brexit talks have ended, since the terms will be clear enough for 27 other countries to vote on it. Why not Scotland too.

Therefore the timing will be set by when Brexit talks end. Independence might always be Sturgeon's aim but in this particular instance it's Single Market membership that she's really after as a priority first and foremost. May's already blocked, dismissed and ignored every other proposal put forward in order to maintain Scotland's Single Market membership. Holyrood won't accept being blocked on the only option they have left.

What UK Thinks@whatukthinks 4h4 hours ago
Latest @YouGov #Scotland poll. #Brexit
right 31;
wrong 57.
Most recent GB reading: right 46; wrong 43.

IveSeenTheLight

A few points here.

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Let me simplify how democracy here in the UK works:

Think of it as a simple show of hands?
(You said before iirc that you don't agree with binary decisions - For clarity, I'm happy with binary decisions for a binary question such as the Independence question.
What I had said earlier was that I did not think that there was a binary solution and that there were far more opportunities to explore well agree or not the choice IS binary; hand up. Or hand down.
The only other option is to do nothing - in which case you will not be counted at all.)


Voting for say two or three main, large parties & a few smaller ones in an election.
A majority of hands for the most popular party does not necessarily equal a majority of hands from all those showing hands, does it?
It might be a majority of all those showing hands.
But it doesn't need to be.
I'll reiterate again, the Vote on June 08th is not a binary question on Independence.
There are a lot of considerations for which party to vote for.


Whereas for say a vote on independence, a majority of hands is needed.
I'm happy for a binary question on Independence that a binary responce is required.
It's folly to try and link a GE vote with the Independence vote

Scotland does not consistently have such a majority.
Lets ask the question

End of.

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The vote share your insisting on is not a question on Independence...............

Its only one of a number of issues under consideration.

Its therefore flawed to hang any hopes on the vote share in the GE as an indication of Independence desire

Not at all. It's going to be much more reliable than a poll, if it's significantly against independence (I think it will be) then the Westminster government whoever that is can say that the Scottish electorate do not want it despite Holyrood having a pro-independence coalition vote to ask for a referendum.

Yah_Boo_Sux

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Such as the poll that declared that 57% would rather be independent in Europe than under a Tory government in a Brexited UK?



I accept that polls can be wrong and in recent years have been repeatedly proven incorrect
The only poll that counts is the democratically elected vote.



I do have a life, but I also like to engage.
I see the daylight right now, a beautiful albeit cloud covered day.
Fresh air filling my lungs.
The modern world really is so easy to engage and communicate.

You don;t need to worry about my life balance, I have it in control.

Another deflected question. Hurts too much, does it?

Do you accept that no polls consistently show that Scots want independence?

Here's another:
Do you want an independent Scotland no matter what the majority of Scots want?

So you find one poll (count them all - errr, one)- and CBA to provide even a link? Here's a list of polls on Wiki.
The latest as in yesterday shows pro-leave @ 39%, pro-remain @ 49%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

No consistent pro independence evidence there.
And there's no vote without evidence that a poll is wanted so although votes do indeed count, people should want a vote first but they don't.


Remember, 2 questions:

Do you accept that no polls consistently show that Scots want independence?

Do you want an independent Scotland no matter what the majority of Scots want?

Go on, answer them. Be honest to the forum as well as to yourself.

IveSeenTheLight

.string. wrote: »

On a different tack --- I wonder:

Tactical Voting against SNP

Grass roots stuff.

Actually I think this type of thing had a role in the last GE. The Daily Mail ran a campaign identifying which marginal seats UKIP had a large, but not dominant, showing compared with the LibDem & Labour. They suggested that Ukip supporters voted Conservative in those seats I reckon it worked.

Interestingly, it shows the first preference tactical voting would result in: -

1. 6 additional Conservative Seats
2. 27 additional Labour seats
3. 9 additional Lib Dem seats

Do you think that is the likely outcome of this GE in Scotland?