The New Fat Scotland 'Thanks for all the Fish' Thread.

elantan

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It is dissapointing that the leaders of the two largest parties are afraid to be scrutinised live on a TV debate

Ach they still got scrutinised ... they just didn't reply, they kinda scored an own goal

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Nope. Nothing to do with the size of parites. I've said this a few times now.

I'll leave my reply at this so the above sinks in.

You can deny it all you want, but you know how Scotland will vote on June 08th.

Incidentally, did you notice that Corbyn is fine with IndyRef2?


Scottish independence: Jeremy Corbyn says indyref2 'absolutely fine'

Mr Corbyn suggested he did not think Westminster should seek to block a referendum, and was quoted by PA as saying that Labour "wouldn't block it".
He added: "If a referendum is held then it is absolutely fine, it should be held. I don't think it's the job of Westminster or the Labour Party to prevent people holding referenda."

TrickyTree83

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You can deny it all you want, but you know how Scotland will vote on June 08th.

Incidentally, did you notice that Corbyn is fine with IndyRef2?


Scottish independence: Jeremy Corbyn says indyref2 'absolutely fine'

Let's not confuse a willingness to not block it with support for independence.

kabayiri

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It is dissapointing that the leaders of the two largest parties are afraid to be scrutinised live on a TV debate

Aww cmon.

It's not scrutiny. It's a bunch of limited questions with limited time and grandstanding answers.

Anybody can bang on about 'hard working families', 'addressing tax inequalities'.

I'm tired of crowing politicians trying to spend all our money and then tell us in the same breath how clever they are at spending all our money.

Meanwhile, an ever increasing proportion of British property and companies end up in foreign ownership. These politicians need to wake up.

Shakethedisease

kabayiri wrote: »

It's what modern politicians are good at...kicking the can down the road.

I've said before, if you lot want independence then it doesn't bother me, but I'm not sure anyone has thought out how to manage even more complexity late next year.

But, engage with us all Shakey. How does it work? Does May suddenly invite Sturgeon to the EU negotiating table, even before Scotland has completed the independence process?

Nobody but nobody has done this A50 business yet, and you want to make it a whole lot more complicated. Why should the EU agree anyway?

Imo ? Sometime soon after 8th June the Scottish Parliament will say we need an official answer by x date. If there's no answer we're going to court/putting plans in place for a referendum/election in Feb 2019.

That's your EU talks without Scotland taken into account stopped right there kabayiri. Sturgeon doesn't have to be anywhere near Brussels. May can either hurry it along and get it over with by issuing a section 30. Or else she can try and negotiate anyway while the whole EU knows there's going to be a Scottish election or referendum in 2019 asking Scots what they want to do. May has no real way of kicking this can down the road.

EFTA/EEA rather than full EU membership will be put on the table as a transitional phase at a second ref/vote. This will be especially pertinent and necessary if you leave the EU on WTO trade terms. Scots voters won't care by then as long as it's some kind of status quo that doesn't involve May being in charge of anything. Since by that point she'll have already bu****d up any Brexit deal by refusing to pay an exit fee, getting too stroppy about EU nationals and having no answers whatsoever regarding NI. She won't reach the trade part.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Let's not confuse a willingness to not block it with support for independence.

Holy s**t. Mundells just been on Scotsnight saying that they are going to use 'opinion polls' in order to gauge Scottish public consent before then hastily saying UK wide election results. English votes for ( no ) Scottish referendums ?

They really are going to ignore the Scottish Parliament and deny it's entire democratic legitimacy in favour of Yougov:rotfl: Truly dire stuff Holyrood is going to laugh it's socks off at rather than take seriously anytime soon.

Aidan Kerr
.@DavidMundellDCT tells @ScotlandTonight UK Gov will use opinion polls + election results to judge if the public support indyref2 #GE2017

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Holy s**t. Mundells just been on Scotsnight saying that they are going to use 'opinion polls' in order to gauge Scottish public consent before then hastily saying UK wide election results. English votes for ( no ) Scottish referendums ?

They really are going to ignore the Scottish Parliament and deny it's entire democratic legitimacy in favour of Yougov:rotfl: Truly dire stuff Holyrood is going to laugh it's socks off at rather than take seriously anytime soon.

Things change in democracies as you keep telling people who say you should respect the will of 2014.

If that rule/standard is good enough to allow a manifesto pledge in 2016 to ask for another referendum then the GE vote share is good enough to gauge opinion on whether that request should be granted or not.

Shakethedisease

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Things change in democracies as you keep telling people who say you should respect the will of 2014.

If that rule/standard is good enough to allow a manifesto pledge in 2016 to ask for another referendum then the GE vote share is good enough to gauge opinion on whether that request should be granted or not.

You're still not getting it Tricky. It's 100% NOT going to be granted whatever happens, the risks are far too high in granting it. Opinion polls and election results are only being used as flimsy justification not to grant it. Do you really still not see this ?

What I and others are trying to spell out to you is that the Scottish Parliament and nearly half the Scottish electorate won't accept YouGov, Ashcroft polls nor the Tories getting Westminster seats AS any sort of justification, and will press ahead regardless after 8th June. The GE won't make any difference to that.

Wake up a bit mate. A section 30 isn't happening anytime soon and we all know it. The question for the Scottish Parliament has always been how to proceed from there without one. Which is why you and I have already spent acres of time and pixels here already debating legal issues and election scenarios.

Because whatever the trends are, the polls are still far too close and far too unpredictable for May to rely on in order to risk allowing any Scottish referendum to happen. But on the flip side you shouldn't think that Sturgeon doesn't already know and hasn't prepared for this either. The SNP will have prepared for this scenario eons ago.

TrickyTree83

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You're still not getting it Tricky. It's 100% NOT going to be granted whatever happens, the risks are far too high in granting it. Opinion polls and election results are only being used as flimsy justification not to grant it. Do you really still not see this ?

What I and others are trying to spell out to you is that the Scottish Parliament and nearly half the Scottish electorate won't accept YouGov, Ashcroft polls nor the Tories getting Westminster seats AS any sort of justification, and will press ahead regardless after 8th June. The GE won't make any difference to that.

Wake up a bit mate. A section 30 isn't happening anytime soon and we all know it. The question for the Scottish Parliament has always been how to proceed from there without one. Which is why you and I have already spent acres of time and pixels here already debating legal issues and election scenarios.

Because whatever the trends are, the polls are still far too close and far too unpredictable for May to rely on in order to risk allowing any Scottish referendum to happen. But on the flip side you shouldn't think that Sturgeon doesn't already know and hasn't prepared for this either. The SNP will have prepared for this scenario eons ago.

It's not about Conservative seats.

It's about vote share.

Since when have you gone from getting a section 30 and subsequently a referendum to not getting it all anyway?

The result on June 8th will determine if the request is denied on grounds that the electorate just doesn't support pro-independence parties or if it is delayed, denied or granted just because Westminster say so.

Given that Sturgeon put her name, i.e. signed a document, with a Chinese investment firm thinking she was getting £10bn worth of investment into Scotland, I find it hard to believe that she's planned for all possible permutations as you keep suggesting. I don't think she's as sharp as you give her credit for at all. On the other hand, someone in the Conservative party is. It doesn't matter that TM had to row back on her no election statements, they can deal a hammer blow to Labour and put a stop to the Scottish nationalists in one fell swoop.

IveSeenTheLight

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's not about Conservative seats.

It's about vote share.

There is no proportional representation in the GE.
It's a FPTP system.
So it is about seats, not about vote share.