The labour party really is finished, isnt it?

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Cameron won't be around in 2020. The likelyhood is that whoever wins the leadership will take the Conservatives even more rightwards. Corbyn has stopped Labour in it's tracks marching right trying to unsuccessfully match them. It will only take Labour to elect a leader slightly more moderate than Corbyn to make a huge difference to party unity. And for the Tories to elect a leader such as Johnson or May to go too far right. There's a long way to go yet.

But stuffing the House of Lords, boundary changes and cutting short money will make things a whole lot more challenging for Labour. Blair didn't face any of those.

difficult to see a minimum wage of £9 as a 'right wing' feature
or the introduction of an apprenticeship levy as right wing
or higher taxes on the middle classes (more people paying 40% than ever in history)
or reduction is life time pension allowances
or the pension triple lock
losing in the Lords
or the changes to Stamp duty : slavishly copied by the SNP
or the tax hit on small landlords
etc etc

however that wouldn't stop an SNP person hating the tories and english

antrobus

Spidernick wrote: »

Did you not read the bit in bold, Generali? I think the above are interesting points, as most people don''t expect Corbyn to be there in 2020.....

Which most people?

I know that there are a lot of people who are hoping that he won't be there; but if wishes were horses .....

Spidernick wrote: »

...
If a week is a long time in politics, then what about four years? Yes, the dice will be severely loaded against Labour, but I really cannot see the Tories being all hugs and kisses after the referendum, and as we all know, the public really don't like split parties.

As for who could possibly lead Labour to victory, I'd agree that none in the current shadow cabinet are likely to do so, but Chukka might and who knows, we could yet see the return of the elder Miliband, who is probably more than a match for the leading Tory candidates to take over from Cameron.

Neither is David Miliband going to come back from America riding a white charger to save the Labour Party from itself.

Filo25

antrobus wrote: »

Which most people?

I know that there are a lot of people who are hoping that he won't be there; but if wishes were horses .....



Neither is David Miliband going to come back from America riding a white charger to save the Labour Party from itself.

Given the change in the make-up of the Labour membership and their current views, its hard for me to see Corbyn leaving before 2020 unless he is replaced by someone else from the far left

antrobus

Filo25 wrote: »

Given the change in the make-up of the Labour membership and their current views, its hard for me to see Corbyn leaving before 2020 unless he is replaced by someone else from the far left

If I had to put my money on anything, it would be on Corbyn not leaving before 2020, and not leaving before the combination of 'natural wastage' and the efforts of Momentum et al have succeeded in recasting the membership of the PLP.

Masomnia

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a vote to remain in the EU, Cameron to step down, Boris elected leader of the party and thus PM, then he'll go to the polls, win, and Corbyn will be out. Within the next 12 months or so.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The likelyhood is that whoever wins the leadership will take the Conservatives even more rightwards. .

No chance.

The Tories are very successfully filling the vacuum in the centre ground thanks to Labour's lurch to the left.

And polling data confirms it. Their lead has grown since the last GE.

If they keep up their current dominance of the middle where all the votes are then a Conservative government could last for multiple terms and they know it. They'd be mad to swing further to the right.

zagubov

I read ages ago that in the US they'd worked out that the most electable name was Johnson. to test this, one chap apparently stood for election with the name Johnson and won quite a healthy vote despite doing no campaigning of any sort whatsoever.

If the same effect applies in Britain, this could work well for Boris.

antrobus

zagubov wrote: »

I read ages ago that in the US they'd worked out that the most electable name was Johnson. to test this, one chap apparently stood for election with the name Johnson and won quite a healthy vote despite doing no campaigning of any sort whatsoever.

If the same effect applies in Britain, this could work well for Boris.

Interesting.

Perhaps Boris's grandad read the same research and that's why he decided to pick the name 'Wilfred Johnson' to replace the Osman Ali that he was born with.

Generali

Spidernick wrote: »

Did you not read the bit in bold, Generali? I think the above are interesting points, as most people don''t expect Corbyn to be there in 2020.

If a week is a long time in politics, then what about four years? Yes, the dice will be severely loaded against Labour, but I really cannot see the Tories being all hugs and kisses after the referendum, and as we all know, the public really don't like split parties.

As for who could possibly lead Labour to victory, I'd agree that none in the current shadow cabinet are likely to do so, but Chukka might and who knows, we could yet see the return of the elder Miliband, who is probably more than a match for the leading Tory candidates to take over from Cameron.

This goes a lot deeper than needing someone a little more moderate.

Since 1975, Labour have tried being led by Messers Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Smith, Blair, Brown, Milliband and Corbyn of whom only Mr Blair has delivered a General election victory.

The fact is that the British people have been offered many different varieties of Labourism and rejected all but one. That's eight leaders, one of whom became PM (one hasn't had the chance and another died before getting an opportunity).

Given that record it's pretty reasonable to conclude that there is something up with Labour that means people won't vote for them. Tinkering around the edges ain't gonna cut it.

kinger101

Masomnia wrote: »

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a vote to remain in the EU, Cameron to step down, Boris elected leader of the party and thus PM, then he'll go to the polls, win, and Corbyn will be out. Within the next 12 months or so.

I think if we leave the EU, it will be Boris, but if we stay, it will be George. I think time is running out for Labour to get rid of Corbyn. Soon, it will become unwinnable for Labour, so whoever takes over will have no chance of being a PM. They'll prefer to wait for the bloody nose at the election, so they can silence the left of the party. Though it's not implausible that Corbyn might leave of his own accord before then.