Nice People Thread No. 15, a Cyber Summer

ivyleaf

Happy Anniversary Gen :beer:

Generali

ivyleaf wrote: »

Happy Anniversary Gen :beer:

Cheers ivyleaf.

I'm watching a fascinating program on the brain called, errrmmm.... The Brain.

Apparently if you put someone in a bad smelling environment they will make harsher moral judgments and if you put someone in a room next to a bottle of hand sanitiser then they will express slightly more conservative views!

Oh and I finally understand the Monty Hall Paradox. I've spent 3 years trying to get my head around it (I have done some other stuff too) and I finally get it.

The idea is this. You have 3 doors to pick from, one of which has the big prize behind it, the other two do not. You pick a door.

Then one of the other doors that does not have a prize behind it is opened and you are offered the chance to change.

1. Should you change your choice?
2. Why?

Oh and in other news, the BBC is reporting the possible election in Australia. They have the story mostly wrong, at least the version I've heard.

ivyleaf

I don't really understand what you mean, Gen. If the other door has been opened and there is no prize behind it, why would anyone opt to change their choice to that one? * *

Maggie Nice to see the pics of Harold! He's very handsome, isn't he? It reminded me of our last mobile home holiday in Normandy, when we were outside having a coffee and a pheasant suddenly emerged from under the decking A lovely surprise.

* *Ah, you must mean that the contestant is offered the chance to choose the as yet unopened door instead. Sorry So, should they swap or not? And why?

Generali

ivyleaf wrote: »

Ah, you must mean that the contestant is offered the chance to choose the as yet unopened door instead. Sorry So, should they swap or not? And why?

That is what I mean and that is my question. Should our heroine contestant swap and why...?

What would you do to maximise your chances of opening the million dollar door?

silvercar

You do swap. Can't totally remember the maths, but it is something like, "with the number of doors now hiding the loot reduced to 2, the chances of the new door having the loot behind it is 50%"

Generali

silvercar wrote: »

You do swap. Can't totally remember the maths, but it is something like, "with the number of doors now hiding the loot reduced to 2, the chances of the new door having the loot behind it is 50%"

I'll give you all the answer tomorrow.

Interesting idea though.

PasturesNew

silvercar wrote: »

...the chances of the new door having the loot behind it is 50%"

No, because the maths started before you opened the first door, when the odds were 1/3.

I believe it's best to stick with your first choice.

I also think that mentally it's better to have stuck with your first choice and got it wrong, than to live with the knowledge that you did change your mind and you lost because your first choice was correct

Generali

PasturesNew wrote: »

No, because the maths started before you opened the first door, when the odds were 1/3.

I believe it's best to stick with your first choice.

I also think that mentally it's better to have stuck with your first choice and got it wrong, than to live with the knowledge that you did change your mind and you lost because your first choice was correct

Behavioural economics tells you not to change because of the apparent extra loss if you do incorrectly so you are right there and in reality almost nobody changes their mind.

But how to maximise the chance to win?

michaels

Choose 1 of 3 doors - chance of being a winner = 1/3, chance of prize being in other two doors = 2 in 3.

So choose a door, now get given this choice: keep current choice (1/3) or have both the other doors (2/3)....

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Choose 1 of 3 doors - chance of being a winner = 1/3, chance of prize being in other two doors = 2 in 3.

So choose a door, now get given this choice: keep current choice (1/3) or have both the other doors (2/3)....

Good answer.

Any better coming along?