stockmarkets -are we nearing the bottom or is there further to go ??

dividendhero

So much of the short term future of the stock market depends on Trumpski and Brexit. Mid term elections are over so Trumpski might well wind down his ridiculous trade war, as for Brexit - really is uncharted waters, FTSE and sterling could collapse or they might both modestly rise. However us plebs have no say in the matter...

Alexland

dividendhero wrote: »

However us plebs have no say in the matter...

So true - the deal we are getting into seems to be worse than the Brexit that I voted against. Assuming we go ahead (and I accept it is really too late to back down now) we should aim to get back to a situation similar to our trading relationship with Europe when we were last a free country. Even if that means there needs to be a border with Ireland however hard that is for everyone to accept. Although not the majority it is worth remembering that a lot of people in NI also voted for Brexit...

Alex

Glen_Clark

Alexland wrote: »

Even if that means there needs to be a border with Ireland however hard that is for everyone to accept.

Everyone? I suspect most people couldn't care less whether Ireland has a border or not. But the DUP certainly do and the Government needs their votes. The tail is wagging the dog.

AnotherJoe

dividendhero wrote: »

So much of the short term future of the stock market depends on Trumpski and Brexit. Mid term elections are over so Trumpski might well wind down his ridiculous trade war, as for Brexit - really is uncharted waters, FTSE and sterling could collapse or they might both modestly rise. However us plebs have no say in the matter...

The mid terms have ended but now he'll be gearing up for the next presidential election.

Which to be fair might mean indeed he dials back, or it might mean he goes even more extreme and will blame job losses due to the policy on those unfair trade terms he's valiantly trying to defeat.

JoseChungsDoomsday

Alexland wrote: »

Even if that means there needs to be a border with Ireland however hard that is for everyone to accept. Although not the majority it is worth remembering that a lot of people in NI also voted for Brexit...

Alex

Ah, the 'screw everyone as long as I get what I want' Brexit that was on the ballot.

There can't be a border because of a international peace treaty signed by UK and Ireland (with the backing of the US) based on EU free movement on the island. Read it and understand it.

The people in NI that voted for brexit were promised no border by leave. Time leavers took some responsibility and offer solutions instead of causing problems. But I guess I'm more likely to see a unicorn riding a dragon onto the football pitch when England win the world cup. Oh, and all 3 of those will never happen.

Glen_Clark

Labour is planning to force a Commons vote within weeks that would make it impossible for Britain to crash out of the European Union without a deal, as fears grow about a disastrous hard Brexit if parliament rejects Theresa May’s agreement.

Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is working on plans to amend key elements of Brexit legislation that still have to pass through the Commons, in order to prevent parliament ever approving the option.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/labour-keir-starmer-force-amendments-block-no-deal-brexit

If this happens I expect the pound to rise significantly, leading to a fall in foreign share prices when measured in pounds.

dividendhero

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Everyone? I suspect most people couldn't care less whether Ireland has a border or not.

WTO rules are crystal clear, if the UK doesn't impose checks on goods from Ireland post Brexit - then every WTO member in the world will claim right to send goods into UK without checks.

There's also the point that the Good Friday Agreement has been signed under international law, this guarantees no border in Ireland..

Finally there's the small point that the "Troubles" might well kick off again, the IRA were rated as the most accomplished terrorists in the world.

NewShadow

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Labour is planning to force a Commons vote within weeks that would make it impossible for Britain to crash out of the European Union without a deal, as fears grow about a disastrous hard Brexit if parliament rejects Theresa May’s agreement.

Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is working on plans to amend key elements of Brexit legislation that still have to pass through the Commons, in order to prevent parliament ever approving the option.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/labour-keir-starmer-force-amendments-block-no-deal-brexit

If this happens I expect the pound to rise significantly, leading to a fall in foreign share prices when measured in pounds.

If I understand it correctly - it's a fairly technical point that's not quite as represented in the article.

To my understanding, the Government is NOT required to pass any form of legislation to leave with no deal - the UK will automatically leave the EU in March without a deal unless an action is taken to either agree a deal or halt/extend the process. The mentioned legislation would be what the UK government would put in place to manage the returned powers post brexit - not the mechanism to allow brexit.

What is seems Sir Keir Starmer is attempting to do is to build in a parliamentary procedure where a failure to enact a deal will result in a general election.

This would give an opportunity for a labour government, or possibly a new tory leader, to take power and either revoke article 50 - subject to the pending ECJ ruling and likely a second referendum - or negotiate an alternative deal.

There is no guarantee a second referendum would result in public support for remain, there is little likelihood labour would be able to negotiate a better deal, and - given their recent public statements - there is also no guarantee the 27 EU members states would unanimously agree to an extension to allow either option to take place.

Best case scenario, forcing a general election at this point will simply extend the deadline, not remove it and is likely to result in more, not less, volatility in both the pound and the euro.

Glen_Clark

JoseChungsDoomsday wrote: »

Time leavers took some responsibility and offer solutions

They'll promise anything to get Theresa May's job.

Glen_Clark

NewShadow wrote: »

If I understand it correctly - it's a fairly technical point that's not quite as represented in the article.

To my understanding, the Government is NOT required to pass any form of legislation to leave with no deal - the UK will automatically leave the EU in March without a deal unless an action is taken to either agree a deal or halt/extend the process. The mentioned legislation would be what the UK government would put in place to manage the returned powers post brexit - not the mechanism to allow brexit.

What is seems Sir Keir Starmer is attempting to do is to build in a parliamentary procedure where a failure to enact a deal will result in a general election.

This would give an opportunity for a labour government, or possibly a new tory leader, to take power and either revoke article 50 - subject to the pending ECJ ruling and likely a second referendum - or negotiate an alternative deal.

There is no guarantee a second referendum would result in public support for remain, there is little likelihood labour would be able to negotiate a better deal, and - given their recent public statements - there is also no guarantee the 27 EU members states would unanimously agree to an extension to allow either option to take place.

Best case scenario, forcing a general election at this point will simply extend the deadline, not remove it and is likely to result in more, not less, volatility in both the pound and the euro.

That may be so. Nevertheless, anything which reduces the chance of a (hard) Brexit strengthens the pound.