The Mad World of Donald Trump

SnooksNJ

jimibaboza wrote: »

If Trump doesn't get the majority of delegates, the nom will be decided at the convention. What Mr Cruz is counting on is Trump not winning outright and then winning it there.

Starting off with poaching delegate's.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/1/ted-cruz-wins-lions-share-of-delegates-at-state-co/

michaels

What happens to delegates of candidates who have dropped out, particularly Rubio? Could he be kingmaker by doing a deal with a just short trump say in return for the running partner slot?

Generali

michaels wrote: »

What happens to delegates of candidates who have dropped out, particularly Rubio? Could he be kingmaker by doing a deal with a just short trump say in return for the running partner slot?

Nobody knows. The Rules Committee meets a week before the RNC to set the rules for the convention and until they do the rules for the convention aren't in place.

One member of the Rules Committee I saw interviewed on CNBC said that he favoured binding delegates for the first round of voting to the original candidate they voted for and then freeing them to vote as they saw fit in subsequent voting rounds. Clearly that would not favour Mr Trump as he wouldn't get those bits 'n' bobs votes from other candidates.

https://gop.com/convention-facts/?convention_type=rules

Given that the Republican establishment doesn't seem to be populated by Trump fans I think it's fair to say that the Rules Committee is unlikely to do Mr Trump any favours.

Maybe they'll set a rule that the candidate with the biggest hands wins!

Generali

Well that's that. Ted Cruz has announced that he's 'suspending' his campaign.

In other news:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 41% support to Clinton’s 39%. Fifteen percent (15%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) This is the first time Trump has led the matchup since last October. Clinton held a 41% to 36% advantage in early March.

Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. Republicans are twice as likely to prefer another candidate.

We also had some chat previously about demographic preference.

- Trump leads among men 48% to 35%
- Clinton leads among women 44% to 34%
- Under 40s break to Clinton 38% to 32% (she should be smashing it with this group) with 25% support for AN Other and 5% don't know
- Blacks support Clinton 71% to 9%
- Other minorities support Clinton 45% to 33%
- Mr Trump has 48% of white voters against 33% for Ms Clinton

HornetSaver

Generali wrote: »

Well that's that. Ted Cruz has announced that he's 'suspending' his campaign.

Despite the title of this thread, the one thing I'll say about Trump is that while he could - and in my opinion will - lose to a candidate that better represents the American electorate, he won't be humiliated in the electoral college count in the way that some losing candidates of yesteryear have been.

The same can't be said of Cruz, whose numbers would have been in Goldwater territory (unfortunate timing of comment duly noted, but numbers wise I see no other Republican comparison). And yet, in the mad world of Ted Cruz, I think he genuinely believes that stepping aside when he did gives him a realistic shot at winning the nomination in a future cycle.

- Other minorities support Clinton 45% to 33%

In a head-to-head with Trump she should really be further ahead on this demographic, all things considered.

vivatifosi

HornetSaver wrote: »

In a head-to-head with Trump she should really be further ahead on this demographic, all things considered.

Could a factor here be that the young like Bernie and he is still in the race? Although the big news is the Cruz pull out, Bernie even won Indiana. If/when he finally drops out, those votes could well fall in behind Hillary.

vivatifosi

Interesting article in The Atlantic about Trump and his relationship with racial minorities:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/the-way-donald-trump-speaks-toand-aboutminorities/481155/

Generali

vivatifosi wrote: »

Interesting article in The Atlantic about Trump and his relationship with racial minorities:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/the-way-donald-trump-speaks-toand-aboutminorities/481155/

It's interesting how people assume that Mr Trump will continue to speak in the same way through the campaign and after he becomes President (I am increasingly convinced that he will trounce whoever the Democrats put up against him).

I don't know if you heard Mr Trump's 'acceptance speech' today as Mr Cruz effectively gave up the race but it was a very interesting change in tone.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/03/politics/indiana-primary-highlights/

Trump is going to destroy Ms Clinton I suspect. I think that it's going to be very funny to watch. He's also likely to drag the Republican party in a new direction quite dramatically too. I think Mr Trump is likely to be as revolutionary to the Republicans as President Reagan was.

Wednesday2000

Generali wrote: »

Trump is going to destroy Ms Clinton I suspect. I think that it's going to be very funny to watch. He's also likely to drag the Republican party in a new direction quite dramatically too. I think Mr Trump is likely to be as revolutionary to the Republicans as President Reagan was.

What do you mean? In what way?:)

Doshwaster

Generali wrote: »

Trump is going to destroy Ms Clinton I suspect. I think that it's going to be very funny to watch. He's also likely to drag the Republican party in a new direction quite dramatically too. I think Mr Trump is likely to be as revolutionary to the Republicans as President Reagan was.

Trump is in danger of starting World War III every time he opens his mouth. I wouldn't call that funny. This is real life not a TV show.