Oil could crash to $10 a barrel, warn investment bank bears

chucknorris

purch wrote: »

Chuck Norris can't be seen towing a caravan :eek:

Kill a Bear with your own hands, and make a tent out of it's hide !!!

You know for years I thought caravans were for people who couldn't afford a 'proper holiday', but since getting a dog my holidays have changed from urban to rural areas, and I've realised that it is all about the lifestyle (and of course holding other vehicles up on single lane roads).

I like animals too much, could I kill an internet troll instead?

Chuck Norris doesn't tow caravans, caravans follow his car, hoping that he chooses them to spend the night in.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

My understanding is that one of the so called main benefits of trackers is that by dripping in or "Dollar cost averaging" we reduce risk compared to trading in and out or trying to place large lump sums when the market drops, that and the fees are pretty cheap. However the temptation is there to think/hope that by the time you need to cash some in the market will be soaring, that mistake was made by many at the start of the new Century wasn`t it? TBH when the markets were soaring off the QE buzz I took some cash back, as I believe we are definitely in deflation at the moment. The global stock markets are just too big a gravitational pull (for gain or loss) to ignore though, and trackers are a way to dip a toe in that money machine without getting too badly crunched IMO. The problem arises when we start believing that piling into a depressed market automatically means big gains up the road, it might or it might not, but I am very comfortable with falling markets and trackers at the moment.

For me its almost all about the dividend income (and being in a fund rather than individual shares, which are far too risky for me), dividend income is very tax efficient. Any capital gain is merely a bonus. Very much in the same way that I view property, that too is/was all about the rental income.

michaels

I'm just waiting for the buy signal which is the economist running a front page on it.....

http://www.economist.com/node/188131

http://www.economist.com/node/268752

purch

michaels wrote: »

I'm just waiting for the buy signal which is the economist running a front page on it.....

They are slightly behind the curve at the moment, but now that the big Investo's have finally woken up to the fact that Oil has fallen $100 so they'd better start predicting lower prices I expect them to jump onto the bandwagon pretty soon.

Mistermeaner

Surely only the first one to call is predicting, aren't the rest just copying


For what it's worth I predict $11 a barrel and I don't even have a huge team of analysts

cells

I dont think oil can hit sustained (say for one month) $10 a barrel.

1: it would make sense to fire up the worlds old oil fired stations to displace nat gas and potentially even coal!

2: transport costs. OPEC is not going to pay $5 to ship the fuel half way around the world so some american can give them $5 for the pleasure.

3: marginal production is already falling. US output is falling about 0.1mbpd/month and a lot of further investment has already been cut.

4: demand is still growing worldwide

Thus $10 is unsustainable low price


I dont know where the break even is but I dont think prices can stay <$20 for any sustained period of time let alone $10.

Thrugelmir

cells wrote: »

2: transport costs. OPEC is not going to pay $5 to ship the fuel half way around the world so some american can give them $5 for the pleasure.

The US is now exporting oil.

cells

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The US is now exporting oil.

it is a net oil importer still, it might sell one unit of one grade and buy one unit of another grade due to how its refineries are configured but overall its an importer

$30 oil is not crazy cheap, maybe even sustainable for a long time, but $10 is not sustainable it would only be for a brief period.

ging84

A proper war in the middle east could put a spanner in the works

kinger101

I heard on the news this morning that Iran is looking to increase it's output now that sanctions are being lifted. This will add to the downward pressure on oil prices.