Oil could crash to $10 a barrel, warn investment bank bears

Thrugelmir

Not just RBS it seems.

Standard Chartered became the latest major bank to downgrade its oil outlook to $10, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs, RBS and Morgan Stanley in making ultra-bearish calls as prices have collapsed by 15pc this year.
Brent crude has now slipped to a fresh 12-year low of $30.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - is trading at $29.93 - a level last seen in December 2013. Analysts warned the oil market remains fundmentally out of balance as record over-supply and stagnant demand weighs on traders.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12094394/Oil-price-could-fall-to-10-a-barrel-warn-investment-bank-bears.html

Crashy_Time

Bring it on.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Bring it on.

Isn't that hitting your index trackers crashy? It certainly is a drag on mine, but they will do what they will do, whether I worry about them or not.

Recently I switched from one ftse tracker to another very similar one, to lock a loss in. I'll be able to carry forward that loss and offset it against CGT when I sell a property.

As strange as it sounds I hope the markets stay down long enough for me to invest in the next tax years SIPP and ISA's. I have no plans in cashing then in, not in the next 15 years anyway, so I'm not really bothered how long they take to recover.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Isn't that hitting your index trackers crashy? It certainly is a drag on mine, but they will do what they will do, whether I worry about them or not.

Recently I switched from one ftse tracker to another very similar one, to lock a loss in. I'll be able to carry forward that loss and offset it against CGT when I sell a property.

As strange as it sounds I hope the markets stay down long enough for me to invest in the next tax years SIPP and ISA's. I have no plans in cashing then in, not in the next 15 years anyway, so I'm not really bothered how long they take to recover.

Might be concerned if I needed to draw on them just now, I don`t. If we see some real volatility I will probably increase the amount of money going into trackers because at some point there will be either more intervention or some shift in fundamentals that allow markets to gain a bit. I think we have reached the limits of QE for example and low energy costs may trigger another big credit event that sees the HPC that we need coming sooner than anticipated.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Might be concerned if I needed to draw on them just now, I don`t. If we see some real volatility I will probably increase the amount of money going into trackers because at some point there will be either more intervention or some shift in fundamentals that allow markets to gain a bit. I think we have reached the limits of QE for example and low energy costs may trigger another big credit event that sees the HPC that we need coming sooner than anticipated.

Looks like our views on trackers are similar then, it took me a while to get comfortable with them falling. Which is strange given that I have always been comfortable enough with property falling (periodically in the short term). I think it was something to do with the liquidity of shares, it made me fall into the trap of thinking too much about investing in a slump.

purch

Generali is going to have to think of a new signature.

At the rate it's going it'll be true in 6 months :eek:

chucknorris

purch wrote: »

Generali is going to have to think of a new signature.

At the rate it's going it'll be true in 6 months :eek:

I'm probably going to buy a touring caravan this summer, so good news on that front, although my ftse 100 trackers have probably lost much more than anything I can save in petrol, doh!

purch

chucknorris wrote: »

it took me a while to get comfortable with them falling

Amongst all the nonsense spouted about whether it;'s better to invest in an active fund or passive fund, it often seems to get forgotten that a tracker can track down as well as up :eek:

P.S. My personal opinion is that it's always best to invest in a fund that gives you the best return, and I don't care how they achieve that.

purch

chucknorris wrote: »

I'm probably going to buy a touring caravan this summer

Chuck Norris can't be seen towing a caravan :eek:

Kill a Bear with your own hands, and make a tent out of it's hide !!!

MJ12

purch wrote: »

Chuck Norris can't be seen towing a caravan :eek:

Kill a Bear with your own hands, and make a tent out of it's hide !!!

It is the caravan that cannot be seen towing a Chuck Norris.

Chuck Norris can kill a tent with bear hands, and make a bear out of the tent.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Looks like our views on trackers are similar then, it took me a while to get comfortable with them falling. Which is strange given that I have always been comfortable enough with property falling (periodically in the short term). I think it was something to do with the liquidity of shares, it made me fall into the trap of thinking too much about investing in a slump.

My understanding is that one of the so called main benefits of trackers is that by dripping in or "Dollar cost averaging" we reduce risk compared to trading in and out or trying to place large lump sums when the market drops, that and the fees are pretty cheap. However the temptation is there to think/hope that by the time you need to cash some in the market will be soaring, that mistake was made by many at the start of the new Century wasn`t it? TBH when the markets were soaring off the QE buzz I took some cash back, as I believe we are definitely in deflation at the moment. The global stock markets are just too big a gravitational pull (for gain or loss) to ignore though, and trackers are a way to dip a toe in that money machine without getting too badly crunched IMO. The problem arises when we start believing that piling into a depressed market automatically means big gains up the road, it might or it might not, but I am very comfortable with falling markets and trackers at the moment.