RBS brace for a “cataclysmic year”

Generali

luvpump wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html#disqus_thread

With printed money almost used up, & interest rates at nearly zero.. no more ammo left, except even more QE .

Ah yes, AEP. The man who successfully predicted 185 of the last 1 recessions.

He really is just the economics version of Katie Hopkins.

luvpump

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/12109530/ftse-china-asia-oil-price-european-financial-markets-slowdown.html

A temporary "Blip" ? or something more serious ?

ALIBOBSY

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Only if it doesn't last too long...

I'm taking the comments of very senior economists on board here when I say they are warning that oil could very soon hit "infection point" for the US. This will see a much grater risk of financial risks to the US economy and, via that, hit consumers in other ways.

The second point which we should be mindful of is that the lower prices hit the most volitile countries the hardest. Russia, Lybia, Iraq etc. Again, this could heighten tensions.

In terms of the UK as a whole and the EU? Yer, it's good news for consumer spending power. So long as something else isn't toppled.

In terms of my pocket - it's great.

This is something to consider. In particular there is a large fracking "bubble" with companies leveraged to the max on the promise of high returns, at these levels they are making a loss on each barrel of oil produced, the longer that goes on the higher the chance of the bubble bursting and we know how quick a crash in one area in the US can spread world wide

But yes for individuals short term cheaper oil/petrol/goods/gas/electric etc is good news

Ali x

Thrugelmir

ALIBOBSY wrote: »

This is something to consider. In particular there is a large fracking "bubble" with companies leveraged to the max on the promise of high returns, at these levels they are making a loss on each barrel of oil produced, the longer that goes on the higher the chance of the bubble bursting and we know how quick a crash in one area in the US can spread world wide

There's one loser when leveraged companies go bust. The banks. The assets and infrastructure still exist so still have a value to someone at the right price. The banks at least then make a partial recovery.

mwpt

Another doom story:
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/governments-tackle-unsustainable-global-economic-trends/4336

We dug ourselves out of the 2008 abyss, where people, companies and governments were looking at bankruptcy, with three forms of life support.

First, quantitative easing. China, USA, Britain, Japan and – after a 5 year delay caused by German resistance – the Eurozone have created a total of $12 trillion of money that did not previously exist. That turned investing into a one way bet and revived the price of everything on earth except wages.

Got to love one way bets.

luvpump

mwpt wrote: »

Another doom story:
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/governments-tackle-unsustainable-global-economic-trends/4336



Got to love one way bets.

So the FTSE isnt down to 2012 levels then ?

mwpt

luvpump wrote: »

So the FTSE isnt down to 2012 levels then ?

Oh, I'm not making much of a statement. I think the whole world has been screwed by bad incentives since... well, not sure exactly, but certainly the incentives worsened since 2008.

I just do enjoy reading all the opposing views, as if anyone really knows what's going to happen. I know risky debt was bailed out in 2008. I know that just encouraged even more debt and handed it out on a plate at "economy saving" low interest rates. I know I don't believe in one way bets. So I expect one day we'll all reap what the central banks have sewn. I just don't know how or when.

Actually, I know the younger generations (have nots) are already reaping it, while older generations (haves) see their asset prices inflate.

Generali

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/the-mash-guide-to-surviving-the-financial-meltdown-20160121105517

Thrugelmir

mwpt wrote: »

Oh, I'm not making much of a statement. I think the whole world has been screwed by bad incentives since... well, not sure exactly, but certainly the incentives worsened since 2008.

I just do enjoy reading all the opposing views, as if anyone really knows what's going to happen. I know risky debt was bailed out in 2008. I know that just encouraged even more debt and handed it out on a plate at "economy saving" low interest rates. I know I don't believe in one way bets. So I expect one day we'll all reap what the central banks have sewn. I just don't know how or when.

Actually, I know the younger generations (have nots) are already reaping it, while older generations (haves) see their asset prices inflate.

European banks have €1.2 trillion of non performing loans. May explain why the ECB is intent on pumping money into the system much in the same way the BOE was.

luvpump

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12114859/Mario-Draghi-denies-that-ECB-bazooka-is-empty.html

be interesting to see where this might go, more QE or will the world finally go cold turkey ?