RBS brace for a “cataclysmic year”

cells

michaels wrote: »

I wonder what falling oil prices do for tax revenue - I can't halp thinking the lost tax on oil probably exceeds the extra revenue from the money being spent elsewhere.

could have a multiplier effect.

£15-20 billion not going into OPEC or oil company pension funds

£15-20 billion extra in the pockets of consumers and businesses who spend it once into the economy and then whoever gets that probably spends it too etc

Also only about 50% of the oil used is for cars with high duty taxes, a lot of oil goes to airplane tracker and boiler juice which has no duty taxes

kinger101

michaels wrote: »

I wonder what falling oil prices do for tax revenue - I can't halp thinking the lost tax on oil probably exceeds the extra revenue from the money being spent elsewhere.

The taxes of fossil fuels would be as follows;

Petroleum Revenue Tax
Corporation Tax
VAT
Fuel Duty
Income Tax (on employees)
National Insurance (on employess).

I think at their peak, PRT and CT bought in £12B alone and these have steadily declined and have now dipped into the red, though this is partly because PRT only applies to pre-1993 fields;

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/21/north-sea-tax-revenues-plummet-negative-first-time-history

VAT will be down, as will NI and IT, particular when BP lays of 4,000 workers. I guess then there will be all the dependent jobs, and IT on rental properties in Aberdeen which will be declining too.

Only fuel duty income is likely to increase if we use more fuel as a result.

It's not great for UK tax receipts, but it could have been a disaster had Scotland gone independent.

cells

kinger101 wrote: »

The taxes of fossil fuels would be as follows;

Petroleum Revenue Tax
Corporation Tax
VAT
Fuel Duty
Income Tax (on employees)
National Insurance (on employess).

I think at their peak, PRT and CT bought in £12B alone and these have steadily declined and have now dipped into the red, though this is partly because PRT only applies to pre-1993 fields;

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/21/north-sea-tax-revenues-plummet-negative-first-time-history

VAT will be down, as will NI and IT, particular when BP lays of 4,000 workers. I guess then there will be all the dependent jobs, and IT on rental properties in Aberdeen which will be declining too.

Only fuel duty income is likely to increase if we use more fuel as a result.

It's not great for UK tax receipts, but it could have been a disaster had Scotland gone independent.

corp tax is likely to be higher imo.

sure BP will pay less but all the other businesses in the uk that use petrol or diesel or even any other form of oil or oil derivative will make a higher profit and pay more.

VAT will probably be about even. Although fuel sales to the public pay VAT all the businesses reclaim it. So VAT lost on fuel sales to the public but the public then have more money to spend on other VAT-Able goods and services

employee income tax and national insurance and employers NI should all be much higher. The oil industry might sack X employees but there is going to be something like 50X hired from the ~£20B in savings which get respent

luvpump

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/12101482/China-enters-bear-market-prompting-mass-sell-off-in-Europe.html
Telegraph over-reacting again ? Or Mse'rs in Denial ?

Thrugelmir

luvpump wrote: »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/12101482/China-enters-bear-market-prompting-mass-sell-off-in-Europe.html
Telegraph over-reacting again ? Or Mse'rs in Denial ?

Some would say it's been on the cards for some years. Just required the trigger to set off the avalanche.

michaels

Of course the fall in asset prices is predicated on US tightening....what odds the next move in interest rates being back down?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35328098

Weak

The weak economic outlook was not confined to the service sector.
On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported industrial production in December shank by 0.4% the second month of contractions.
Industrial production, which includes manufacturing, mining and utilities has been hit by a strengthening dollar and global economic weakness.
"With the dollar still rising at a rapid pace and global demand clearly pretty weak we don't expect much from the US manufacturing sector this year,'' Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research report.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Of course the fall in asset prices is predicated on US tightening....what odds the next move in interest rates being back down?

The US rate rise barely a month ago has no bearing on the wider malaise. Nothing to stop US interest rates rising again.

luvpump

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12104064/Iran-sanctions-Middle-East-stock-markets-crash-as-Tehran-enters-oil-war.html

Graham_Devon

Just goes to show how volitile predictions and the art of economics really is.

Who would have stood up and suggested, or even guessed that oil would be below $30 a barrel at the start of 2016? Who'd have thought we'd have a storage problem as we are overflowing with oil?

And what's more, can you imagine the vitirol thrown at anyone who suggested this time last year, or even 6 months ago, that oil prices could reach $10 a barrel?

But here we are. 99% of predictions wrong. 99% of economists surprised.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

99% of predictions wrong. 99% of economists surprised.

Graham many people were pointing out that the World faced an oil glut and oil price crash as far back as early 2014.

I posted articles on it in the Scottish indy thread before the referendum.

Economists may not have crystal ball and be able to predict an exact price 18 months in advance but plenty of them warned us big falls in oil prices were coming.