RBS brace for a “cataclysmic year”

padington

kinger101 wrote: »

Gosh, has the Telegraph's economics section always been so morose? This forum has been full of their stories of doom recently. I think they all need to go away on a corporate away day where they play with some kittens or something.

Many of the worlds markets and economies are looking dangerous and the world is so intwined, that's the reason I'm still so bulliish on property. Low interest rates & quantative easing are here to stay. Hence why property and other real tangible things will boom in price.

If I thought the global economy was rosy I would sell up tomorrow. We may well have another credit crunch and if we do, property will only boom again like It did post 2008 because the loose money that will inevitably follow will light yet another property and tangible things Fire.

America is weak in that it isn't that economically advanced anymore and is heavily dependent on people like the Chinese buying up bonds,it can't afford to allow the rest of the world to burn. Cheap credit will be available for a generation or three and certainly will not end in the next five years, in my opinion.

The only issue to fear for the short to medium term is taxation.

Generali

kinger101 wrote: »

I think anchovy = crashy time. They are about as coherent as each other. We'll know for sure once Aberdeen is mentioned.

I see what you did there.

DiggerUK

A fair balance of views on RBS prediction..._

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/rbs-forecast-doom-global-economy-2016

Generali

DiggerUK wrote: »

A fair balance of views on RBS prediction..._

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/rbs-forecast-doom-global-economy-2016

I'm not sure it's a fair balance but it is certainly a range of five views.

Generally speaking, if you predict disaster you're wrong because economic disaster rarely happens.

If we look back through my life which began in 1971 I guess you could say that there were economic disasters in 1974, 1976-81, and 2008-10(?). In addition I suppose we could argue the toss about the early 90s but you'd be hard pressed to present a decent argument that the period was a disaster.

In 44 years about 7+ years were really not good and 5 of those were due to some horrible mismanagement in the late 70s.

If you predict okay-good times then generally you are likely to be right.

purch

Generali wrote: »

Generally speaking, if you predict disaster you're wrong because economic disaster rarely happens.

I guess it can depend on what you consider constitutes an "Economic Disaster"

If anything other than the economy growing at 3% + a year is considered a disaster, then yes we have had a few periods of "disaster" in the last 50 years, but none of which have had any long lasting effects.

The thing is, most of the numpties who predict "disaster" mean far worse than a minor recession or period of stagnation, and in all these predictions they so far have been 100% incorrect.

michaels

I don't suppose ths piece is very popular over on HPC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35293442

wotsthat

michaels wrote: »

I don't suppose ths piece is very popular over on HPC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35293442

I think I just found a motto for them in the article..

nice scare: shame about the facts

mayonnaise

michaels wrote: »

I don't suppose ths piece is very popular over on HPC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35293442

Let's have a look.
The Count posted the headline, "Interest rate rise on the cards! Terrible news for homeowners!", but forgot to include the link to the BBC article.
He did include a picture of a dripping tap though. He must have posted that dripping tap a couple dozen times by now.
BruceBanner stated he has fixed for 5 years @ 2.25%.
Slight panic. Did Bruce jump ship and buy?
Relief. Bruce clarifies it's a fixed savings rate.
All is well in HPC land.

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

The only issue to fear for the short to medium term is taxation.

Debt is.

In this interconnected world.

Crashy_Time

michaels wrote: »

I don't suppose ths piece is very popular over on HPC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35293442

Well most people don`t have a mortgage, so a HPC doesn`t scare most people (except it does, that`s why it doesn`t get mentioned
:rotfl:) but the big bad banks will like lending into a HPC, that is for sure, lets see how low prices need to go before people want mortgage debt this time around. If everything is so rosy you wonder why RBS etc. seem to be panicking and Bloomberg keep flagging up charts that are "off the dial" and "never seen before", must all be Doom Mongers eh?