Debate House Prices


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RBS brace for a “cataclysmic year”

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  • Jon_B_2
    Jon_B_2 Posts: 832 Forumite
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    And yet, the world goes on. Where next?

    Is there an outcome from this? It seems like the numbers we read on a daily basis are so trivialised, almost insignificant that it does not seem real.

    Clearly if you live in Aberdeen, life is not too great, but I am not seeing much negativity out there?
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
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    HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
    Graham many people were pointing out that the World faced an oil glut and oil price crash as far back as early 2014.

    That may have been so, but did you post anything regarding oil at $30 a barrel? or even $50 a barrel?

    If not, I don't see what that has to do with my point.

    I've predicted a fall in the FTSE. If it falls to 4,000 points, can I claim I'd pointed the fall out? Afterall, it's what you are doing with oil.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
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    Jon_B wrote: »
    Clearly if you live in Aberdeen, life is not too great, but I am not seeing much negativity out there?

    People never do until it impacts them personally in some way. Whether it's direct through their employment or indirectly through the value of their savings/investments.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
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    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    If not, I don't see what that has to do with my point.

    Your 'point' seemed to be the usual bashing of economists by suggesting none of them predicted the crash in oil.

    That is false. Many did.

    Here's Goldman Sachs a year ago noting oil would fall to $40 by year end.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11339595/Oil-hits-six-year-low-as-Goldman-Sachs-slashes-price-forecast.html

    That was pretty close as it happens.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
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    HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
    Graham many people were pointing out that the World faced an oil glut and oil price crash as far back as early 2014.

    I posted articles on it in the Scottish indy thread before the referendum.

    Economists may not have crystal ball and be able to predict an exact price 18 months in advance but plenty of them warned us big falls in oil prices were coming.

    To be fair, I predicted what would happen to oil in the 2015 predictions thread.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
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    Generali wrote: »
    To be fair, I predicted what would happen to oil in the 2015 predictions thread.

    You did indeed.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • globalds
    globalds Posts: 9,431 Forumite
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    Perhaps China will be the one to win from cheap oil

    http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-crude-idUSL3N13W3I620151208

    I have to admit my prediction for 2016 would have been that a China currency devaluation one time too often would cause a black swan type event.

    But the Chinese economy seems to be getting busy very quickly again with cheap oil.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
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    globalds wrote: »
    Perhaps China will be the one to win from cheap oil

    http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-trade-crude-idUSL3N13W3I620151208

    I have to admit my prediction for 2016 would have been that a China currency devaluation one time too often would cause a black swan type event.

    But the Chinese economy seems to be getting busy very quickly again with cheap oil.

    I suspect that with cheap oil not only will crisis be averted in China but it will also be highly positive for the economies of Europe. France's tourist numbers already outnumber the local population 4:3 over the course of the year with twice as many people visiting Greece as live in Greece! A lot of people will spend the money saved from filling the car and the shopping basket more cheaply with a nice week or weekend away.
  • padington
    padington Posts: 3,121 Forumite
    edited 19 January 2016 at 1:39AM
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    ... And more people will buy more electronics from Maplins, see more films at Vue and Cineworld and shop for more bargains in Argos and TKMax . More neighbours will extend into their attics as more owner occupiers put more love into more homes owned by more owner occupiers. More people will want more cleaners and carpenters and baby minders and gardeners. Whilst more people will be more brave to set up more small businesses and take more chances that will become more likely to be more successful and places like Wood Green will continue to boom in an unsettled world even more. ;)
    Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.
  • luvpump
    luvpump Posts: 1,621 Forumite
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    edited 19 January 2016 at 11:04PM
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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html#disqus_thread

    With printed money almost used up, & interest rates at nearly zero.. no more ammo left, except even more QE .
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