If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Matthias Wissmann, president of the VDA, Germany’s automotive industry association, said in Berlin on Thursday: “Keeping Britain in the EU is more significant than keeping Greece in the euro.”

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

German cars, for example, are already 12% less competitive than last year thanks to the devaluation of the pound. They would not want to be another 10% dearer thanks to a 10% tariff.

German cars are an odd one, since they tend to be an aspirational/statement purchase rather than a practical one, and are generally either company cars or leases, so the actual price isn't as relevant as the depreciation and monthly cost.

Backing that statement up; people tend to be VW/BMW/Audi/Mercedes despite them being more expensive than equivalents because of the prestige, that won't change if the prices go up by 15-20%. If anything, it'll make them more elite again (since the BMW 3 series is more common than the Mondeo).

I'm of course not counting Seat/Skoda parts of the VAG group, as they are Spanish/Slovakian primarily.

People who are price sensitive for cars are probably buying Korean/Japanese/French by this point anyway.

Will the EU really cave in to our demands in case we don't buy as many German cars?

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

3) The City relies on each players own personal social network, face to face socialising over many years, and information harvested gives one the edge. You just cannot up-sticks to windy Frankfurt and talk to a lamp post. Furthermore the City is a hive of synergy with all the specialists in one place.

Phones still work, and Frankfurt is a 3 hour flight from London. They'll make it work if they need to be in Frankfurt in order to actually do their business.

That said, Dublin is going to be the easiest option for them.

StevieJ

CLAPTON wrote: »

lastest CPI year on year inflation is about 0.6%
whilst RPI is 1.8%

usually lefties support Keynsian economics which favours positive inflation whilst the lunatic right don't support Keynsian economics and favour zero inflation even if it means throws millions out of work.

Is Hammond a lefty then? he sounded very Keynsian at the conference, I thought I was listening to Ed Balls circa 2010 Even his excuses sounded like the great man.

"When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?" Keynes
"When times change, we must change with them," "So we will no longer target a surplus at the end of this Parliament. Hammond.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Falling pound is good for us if we produce locally and sell globally, because we get more money for nothing essentially. So for Whisky, UK tourism and services, low pound is good. Maybe we'll become the new Czech Republic for stag does.

For anything else that needs to come in from abroad (like, well, everything*), it's bad because the cost creeps up, and we have less buying power on our own holidays.

That the pound has hit a 31 year low against the USD now that May has announced when Brexit will happen is telling; we should start to see things happen soon. I think a lot of the disaster we were expecting to happen already, failed to appear because Cameron didn't pull the trigger right away and a lot of companies were just hoping that the whole thing would just go away. Now that it's actually going to happen, they'll start reacting.

*Bear in mind we import: Steel, Coal, Electronics, Components, Food, Electiricy, Oil, Textiles, Cars. We're screwed if the pound collapses.

On your old fashioned logic we just keep increasing the trade deficit and hope the kindness of strangers will se us through. As someone interested in avoiding UNSUSTAINABLE economics you ought not be so blaze about our importing culture.

We choose to import cars, French food, textiles, steel - all things we can self supply to a great extent.


Sugar beet for example for more of our sugar requirements, and stop tossing away a ton of British fruit (recall Jamie Oliver and H F Whittingstalls campaign).


As is being said at conference, closing the trade gap is vital and urgent work. As a nation we're far too ready to lazily reach for imports when there are perfectly good home producers.

Why do you think investors are pushing the FTSE 250 so high? Do they expect reduced returns, lol?


The ONS yesterday said they felt inflation was topping out and that further feed-through will not make much impact.

Conrad

BTW - markets expect a lower pound going forwards as they realise we will employ fiscal policy aimed at keeping us more competitive. Excellent news.

Conrad

Lee Hopley, chief economist at the manufacturers' organisation EEF, said it was an "expectation-busting surge in manufacturing activity" that pointed to conditions across industry being "considerably better than business-as-usual".

setmefree2

I was dreading this figure this morning BUT

September 2016 UK Construction PMI Smashes expectations

The UK’s construction sector is firmly back in growth following the mid-year slump in activity.

Data from IHS Markit and the CIPS have shown the UK’s construction sector returned to growth in September following months of decline in activity.
The Construction PMI read at 52.3, well ahead of the 49 figure forecast by economists echoing the strong beat delivered 24 hours earlier by the Manufacturing PMI release.
September’s was the fastest increase in new orders for six months and this is the first time activity has risen since May

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/5543-construction-pmi-uk-3434

Good news but sellers still queuing up to smack down the pound.

setmefree2

Banks to Miss Out on Special Favors in May’s Brexit Plans

According to three senior figures in May’s administration, the government will refuse to prioritize the protection of the sector after the U.K. has left the European Union. Her team has privately dismissed the key business demand for an interim deal with the EU to help ease the transition out of the bloc, one of the people said. All asked not to be named because the information is sensitive.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-03/may-said-to-downgrade-city-in-brexit-shock-for-financial-sector

Same story

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-government-signals-no-special-post-brexit-deals-for-financial-services-2016-10?r=US&IR=T

setmefree2

Anybody seen any articles on what happens to the more than 8,000 financial services companies based in the EU (or the European Economic Area) who rely on passports to do business in Britain if passporting is withdrawn?