If we vote for Brexit what happens

ruggedtoast

Conrad wrote: »

I'd love to launch a new beer, Empire Beer to celebrate Empire 2. Not too gassy and a bit less alcohol and it could replace the nasty beers sold in Indian restaurants.

Maybe a range of badges for cars and lapels celebrating Empire 2, mmm

Yes, there wouldn't be a clapped out Rover without one, and the presence of such a beer on tap would be an instant warning to anyone with more than 3 brain cells to turn around and find somewhere else to drink/

Conrad

A few important thoughts and arguments I've harvested of late;

Whilst the EU Commission is likely to threaten WTO, the member states are likely to opt for the status quo of tariff free trade given business lobbies in their own countries.

The balance of trade and tariff rates under WTO rules is more damaging to the rest of the EU than to the UK, given the UK’s bias to services which are all tariff free, and given the devaluation of the pound which has already made rest of the EU products less price competitive without extra tariffs.

The UK could become the world leader for free trade once it has the right to negotiate its own trade deals. Being an open economy with a high proportion of service business is ideal to pioneer free trade

The UK could do better in various scientific and technological areas like medicine and agriculture when we can set our own regulatory framework, as the EU is often cramping for new ideas.

Financial passports are two way – the rest of the EU needs them to get special access to the big London markets

The importance of passports is greatly exaggerated. There are few examples of large scale successful passported products.


Soon MIFID II will grant passports to companies in jurisdictions with equivalent regulation, which must apply to the UK as we have identical regulation at the moment.



German cars, for example, are already 12% less competitive than last year thanks to the devaluation of the pound. They would not want to be another 10% dearer thanks to a 10% tariff.

France and Spain would be very worried about the possible high tariffs that can be imposed on their substantial agricultural exports, whereas the UK’s service exports and aerospace products will continue to be tariff free under WTO rules


In addition, the UK could set an example to the world by using trade to promote development by offering better access to our markets to developing country agricultural and manufacturing businesses. And we could become a leader for free trade worldwide.

The UK remains a member of the WTO, and we could inherit the existing EU external tariff arrangements registered with the WTO

EU controls over clinical trials, stem cell research, Genomics and data analytics was holding back UK universities and deterring worldwide investors and researchers attempting these areas within any EU country. The UK could assist its scientific development if it had a more permissive regime, as the USA and others do

UK farming was held back by EU controls over the use of technology in agriculture. He also reminded us that the UK had lost its vote and voice on many important global regulatory and standards bodies. Once out of the EU the UK will have more

Fisheries - it should be able to end up with a much better working fishery policy like Norway’s

Conrad

Countless times I argued a falling pound was good for us and would not feed through into much inflation whilst Remainers insisted UK inflation would badly hurt us as we rely on imports;




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37539019


UK manufacturing growth 'best for two years'
'Upward surprise'
"The weak sterling exchange rate remained the prime growth engine, driving higher new orders from Asia, Europe, the US and a number of emerging markets," said IHS Markit senior economist Rob Dobson.
"The domestic market is also still supportive of growth, especially for consumer goods."


Higher import costs as a result of the exchange rate had led to a further "substantial" increase in average purchase prices, with manufacturers passing on part of the rise to customers in the form of higher charges, the survey found.


However, the resultant inflation was now easing, said Mr Dobson. "It looks as if the recent surge in inflation may not quite reach the peaks of previous bouts such as in 2008 and 2010-11."

ruggedtoast

Conrad wrote: »

Countless times I argued a falling pound was good for us and would not feed through into much inflation whilst Remainers insisted UK inflation would badly hurt us as we rely on imports;




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37539019


UK manufacturing growth 'best for two years'
'Upward surprise'
"The weak sterling exchange rate remained the prime growth engine, driving higher new orders from Asia, Europe, the US and a number of emerging markets," said IHS Markit senior economist Rob Dobson.
"The domestic market is also still supportive of growth, especially for consumer goods."


Higher import costs as a result of the exchange rate had led to a further "substantial" increase in average purchase prices, with manufacturers passing on part of the rise to customers in the form of higher charges, the survey found.


However, the resultant inflation was now easing, said Mr Dobson. "It looks as if the recent surge in inflation may not quite reach the peaks of previous bouts such as in 2008 and 2010-11."

You realise that inflation "easing" simply means that after the spike in prices the rate at which things are getting more expensive is just slowing down a bit, don't you?

I suppose if you are imaging the Weimar Republic then this is a good thing, otherwise not so much,

LHW99

It seems as if Mr. Carney will still have to keep writing letters to explain why inflation isn't at 2% yet.

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

You realise that inflation "easing" simply means that after the spike in prices the rate at which things are getting more expensive is just slowing down a bit, don't you?

I suppose if you are imaging the Weimar Republic then this is a good thing, otherwise not so much,

lastest CPI year on year inflation is about 0.6%
whilst RPI is 1.8%

usually lefties support Keynsian economics which favours positive inflation whilst the lunatic right don't support Keynsian economics and favour zero inflation even if it means throws millions out of work.

Crashy_Time

jimbog wrote: »

Your use of forced laughter at your own comments are a little cringy.

Not sure an emoticon can show "forced" laughter :rotfl: bothering to comment on it is also slightly cringy :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

Chanes wrote: »

You're a half empty kind of chap methinks. Cheer up, it might never happen and if it does we're all knackered. Don't worry about what could be; worry about what is.

Maybe less than half empty.....


https://news.markets/brexit/portugal-and-italy-could-collapse-eurasia-25718/?CHID=11&utm_source=dianomi&utm_medium=outreach


The more debt you are carrying the more knackered you will be IMO, unless they go for a re-set of some kind which will be VERY interesting to watch. :money:

Conrad

Xavier Rolet, CEO of the London Stock Exchange Group;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/02/the-city-of-london-will-be-fine-after-brexit--and-a-vengeful-eur/

Immediately post-referendum my colleagues visited China (with the new Chancellor) and India and discussed how London can finance their growth. These two rising economies need trillions of dollars for new infrastructure, which their banks and governments say they cannot provide. They raise this money offshore through bonds, denominated in their own currency to avoid currency risk, known as Dim Sum or Masala bonds

This fast-growing business could go anywhere globally, but the UK is leading. This year we listed more Dim Sum bonds than the rest of the world, excluding Greater China itself. We are also the leading venue for Masala bonds. When India’s largest financial services conglomerate, HDFC, raised $450 million in London, it said London “distinguished itself by offering a wide range of financial instruments and enjoys unshakeable trust from international investors”.

A good example is clearing. It is a fundamental and mandatory part of the plumbing that keeps the global financial system going, ensuring millions of complex trades are settled in a safe and regulated way. Clearing houses act as firewalls or circuit breakers, guarding the rest of the market against default by companies by holding collateral and monitoring transaction risk. London is the world leader in this critical sector. Last year its leading clearing house, LCH, cleared 90 per cent of interest rate swaps – one of the largest asset classes.

Meanwhile, we excel in the traditional work of raising capital, finding billions for companies to invest by giving them a deep and liquid capital pool and a breadth of investors. The UK is also unique in having a successful growth market specifically for SMEs: AIM has raised £15 billion of capital for British and European SMEs this year. Other countries have tried but failed to establish similar markets.

Where London leads the world, the European economy benefits. Indeed, our range of services and asset classes mean we provide efficiencies that save customers capital across the eurozone. LCH clears all 17 major currencies, so it can also reduce or eliminate risk; last year it saved customers $25 billion in regulatory capital, which could then be invested in the real economy. Some claim euro clearing will automatically move back to the eurozone after Brexit, yet clearing euro trades separately means losing these efficiencies. This could cost firms tens of billions of dollars – taking money from the European real economy. And there is, logically, only one other financial centre that could centrally and efficiently clear all these currencies. It is not Paris, Frankfurt, or Amsterdam, but New York.

The UK financial ecosystem, with clearing at its heart, makes London the most economically attractive and stable destination for global investors and issuers. It is no longer just a few banks transacting individual products but the innovative home of global finance. Our opportunity now is to put greater access to finance for entrepreneurs at the centre of post-Brexit industrial strategy.

This ecosystem must be championed and protected. The best way is to secure continued regulatory equivalence with the EU, membership of which also provides equivalency with the US. But people in Europe and the UK should realise this isn’t a zero sum game. If business leaves the UK, the European economy would suffer – and very little of that business is likely to go to Europe anyway.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Countless times I argued a falling pound was good for us and would not feed through into much inflation whilst Remainers insisted UK inflation would badly hurt us as we rely on imports;

Falling pound is good for us if we produce locally and sell globally, because we get more money for nothing essentially. So for Whisky, UK tourism and services, low pound is good. Maybe we'll become the new Czech Republic for stag does.

For anything else that needs to come in from abroad (like, well, everything*), it's bad because the cost creeps up, and we have less buying power on our own holidays.

That the pound has hit a 31 year low against the USD now that May has announced when Brexit will happen is telling; we should start to see things happen soon. I think a lot of the disaster we were expecting to happen already, failed to appear because Cameron didn't pull the trigger right away and a lot of companies were just hoping that the whole thing would just go away. Now that it's actually going to happen, they'll start reacting.

*Bear in mind we import: Steel, Coal, Electronics, Components, Food, Electiricy, Oil, Textiles, Cars. We're screwed if the pound collapses.