If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

gadgetmind wrote: »

Agreed, but while thunderstorms have a strict definition, and you can't be sure one is actually happening until you start getting very wet, it's worth watching out for dark clouds and paying attention to the forecasts the experts are making.

Oops, sorry, I was forgetting that some people don't like experts.

Keeping to your analogy, dark clouds don't necessarily mean a thunderstorm either. There are many factors which affect the weather, probably less that affect economics. I think it would be arrogant to think we've devised a financial system more complex than nature.

Crashy_Time

http://www.thenational.scot/business/adam-smith-institute-ridicules-boe-stress-tests-as-it-warns-on-fresh-banking-crisis.20691

TrickyTree83

gadgetmind wrote: »

"If you're a Leave voter, you're about to get exactly what you asked for"

http://uk.businessinsider.com/statistics-brexit-recession-uk-2016-7

For the record, I think some of the projections there are on thin ground.

It's not the best. If it's been a long time coming (as the journo claims), why is it down to the Brexit vote (also as the journo claims)? Surely they're contradictory positions?

I'm sure there's better representations of what is happening to the economy at the moment than this, if he's unable to determine what he believes the cause to be at an economic level then to me it looks like he's plagiarised others work and wrapped some of his own opinions around it to build a story.

gadgetmind

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Keeping to your analogy, dark clouds don't necessarily mean a thunderstorm either.

I pretty much said that, but it's best not to ignore them, and consider taking a coat, but maybe leave the kite behind.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I'm sure there's better representations of what is happening to the economy at the moment than this, if he's unable to determine what he believes the cause to be at an economic level then to me it looks like he's plagiarised others work and wrapped some of his own opinions around it to build a story.

Did you not read our new friend's contribution in post 7129?

fafafafafafasadsong wrote: »

1. Consumer confidence indices
2. Manufacturing PMI
3. Services PMI
4. Construction PMI

So how are we going on those measures since the Brexit vote?

Consumer Confidence Indices
-12 where a positive number means more people are confident and a negative number means fewer are. Before the vote it was -1.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
PMI works slightly differently to the confidence index. Here a number greater than 50 means purchasing managers in companies are seeing orders from their companies on the rise whereas less than 50 means a fall.
Latest manufacturing PMI is 48.2 vs 52.1 before the vote.

Services PMI
Services PMI measures in the same way as for manufacturing.
Latest data? Now 47.4, was 52.3

Construction PMI

Latest is 45.9 vs 46 previously so basically unchanged.

Summary
In summary there are four sectors of the economy and the leading indicators for all show contraction. That's not to say that there definitely will be a contraction but it's looking highly likely and it looks like it's entirely down to the Brexit vote given how well, as you say, the world's economy is travelling.

Any suggestion these are nothing to do with Brexit and were just about to happen anyway deserves ridicule.

The world was already an uncertain place and we've just voted for years more additional uncertainty. Just what effect do you think this uncertainty will have on the economy as we await the start of Conrad's third era of prosperity?

TrickyTree83

wotsthat wrote: »

Did you not read our new friend's contribution in post 7129?



Any suggestion these are nothing to do with Brexit and were just about to happen anyway deserves ridicule.

The world was already an uncertain place and we've just voted for years more additional uncertainty. Just what effect do you think this uncertainty will have on the economy as we await the start of Conrad's third era of prosperity?

I expected an impact.

I accepted the possibility, as Mr Carney pointed out, of a recession.

I don't believe that you can predict what the trend is based on such a small amount of data points. Since recession is a downward trend of varying amounts no one is in a position to shout "HA! Told you so!" regardless of what I believe would actually happen on a vote to leave.

I had a similar argument with our management types recently. They wanted to show the trend based on yesterday's performance. My response was that we can calculate and display that, but it's not a trend. Once we (BI/MI) explained what trend actually was they eventually capitulated that what they actually wanted was a real trend indicator.

gadgetmind

wotsthat wrote: »

Any suggestion these are nothing to do with Brexit and were just about to happen anyway deserves ridicule.

Well, quite. Remain made a number of predictions regards what Brexit (or threat thereof) would cause. Leave said it was scaremongering and that these things would not happen. They didn't say that those things were going to happen no matter what, they said the predictions were wrong and were scaremongering.

Own the outcome!

mayonnaise

Brexit could herald end to British fruit and veg sales, producers warn

About 90% of British fruit, vegetables and salads are picked, graded and packed by 60,000 to 70,000 workers from overseas, mostly from eastern Europe.

“The government has to make a decision: either we bring the people to the work or we take the work to the people,” he told the Guardian. “The government has to decide does it want [the UK] to produce food or not - that is their decision.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn

mwpt

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexit could herald end to British fruit and veg sales, producers warn

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/03/brexit-could-herald-end-to-british-fruit-and-veg-sales-producers-warn

Back in the 90s this work was done by young Australians, New Zealanders, South Africans, Zimbabweans, Spanish, Canadian, and so forth, who had come to the UK to earn Sterling Pound, travel and return to home countries with some savings.

There have been immigrants "stealing jobs" that Brits don't like doing for decades, but just recently it seems they are the wrong type of immigrants.

CLAPTON

fafafafafafasadsong wrote: »

It is possible I suppose that three leading indicators that were positive have turned negative is coincidental with the Brexit vote (the tick down in the 4th is neither here nor there IMHO). It is also possibly coincidental or even conspiratorial that non-UK leading indicators have turned more positive at the same time.

Time will tell where the world goes from here of course but early indicators aren't looking good for the UK. I guess we can be happy that the rest of the world is going well though.

which non UK indicators have turned more positive : presumably you aren't including the US one that whilst still positive had dropped in value