If we vote for Brexit what happens

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

Except it would be political suicide to ignore immigration......

Probably but it's fun to see the frothers getting anxious about it.

setmefree2

Membership of the EU’s customs union — that is, having a common external tariff applied to imports from the rest of the world — is a separate issue to membership of its single market. Norway, for example, is a member of the single market but not of the customs union, enabling it to protect some of its producers with higher tariffs than allowed in the EU. If it wants, Norway can also sign trade deals with third-country governments permitting imports at lower tariffs.
However, in order to prevent countries such as Norway becoming a backdoor into the EU market, Oslo is obliged to apply complex “rules of origin” to its exports, ensuring that they have substantially been made in Norway rather than imported from, say, China and re-exported to the EU. This, plus the need to comply with customs paperwork from which EU countries are exempt, imposes considerable costs on Norwegian companies selling goods to the bloc.
For Norway, whose exports are dominated by primary products like crude oil, this may not pose too great a hardship. For the UK, whose goods exports are generally more complex and involve the use of imported inputs, they could prove a serious handicap. On the other hand, if the UK stays inside the EU customs union and is forced to apply the same tariffs as the EU, that will in effect preclude it signing any meaningful trade deals involving goods trade with any other economy.
Mr Fox is certainly right that the customs union question needs to be resolved before the UK can enter into any serious negotiations over non-EU bilateral trade deals. But that will involve Mrs May’s government first deciding how hard a Brexit it wants, most likely including whether it wants to be part of the European Economic Area and hence the single market, which will make it subject to a different set of restrictions. It will then have to negotiate with the EU and its member states to try to turn those wishes into reality, a process that will take years, not months.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/40166974-53e5-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef.html#axzz4FhS65EBv

mayonnaise

Third of foreign students less likely to come to UK after Brexit.

Survey suggests ambitious expansion plans may need to be rethought

Some students cited a less welcoming environment and a rise in racist attacks since the referendum. One respondent said: “I’ve heard there’s been a spike in racism and xenophobia within the UK and I don’t want to support that in any form.” Another said: “People have become so racist and with all the ongoing circumstances, I’d not feel safe there.”

https://next.ft.com/content/c179cb10-53f3-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

Farewell, open, tolerant, diverse and welcoming Britain.

buglawton

So, UK economy 'boomed' in the 3 months to Brexit.
But construction is down, I guess because of Osborne's 2nd property stamp duty hike.

setmefree2

Irish POV

British push to abolish customs union is 'madness

Britain's new Trade Minister is pushing an agenda that could be "detrimental" to Irish trade, business leaders have said.

Director of Corporate, Strategic and International Affairs at IBEC Mary Rose Burke Picture: Tom Burke Britain's new Trade Minister is pushing an agenda that could be "detrimental" to Irish trade, business leaders have said.
Liam Fox is pressurising the British Prime Minister Theresa May to break free from an agreement which ensures there are no tariffs on goods moving within European Union.

Despite the Brexit result, it was believed that the UK would remain within the 'customs union' - but Mr Fox, who was central to the 'Leave' campaign, has indicated he wants the freedom to cut all existing ties with EU.
Such a move would impact dramatically on Anglo-Irish relations, adding "significant" administrative costs and delays to trade crossing the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Prior to the referendum, the UK Treasury warned that leaving the customs union would lead to cross-border transactions being subject to "various forms of customs control and their liability to duty determined according to complex rules or origin".

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/british-push-to-abolish-customs-union-is-madness-34918573.html

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

Third of foreign students less likely to come to UK after Brexit.





https://next.ft.com/content/c179cb10-53f3-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

Farewell, open, tolerant, diverse and welcoming Britain.

Just more ignorance blaming everything on Brexit.

16 times as many crimes were reported against asylum shelters in 2015 (1,031) as in 2013 (63). More generally, racist violent crimes against racial, ethnic and religious minorities increased by 87% from 693 crimes in 2013 to 1,295 crimes in 2015.

No, not the UK, Germany

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/06/germany-failing-to-tackle-rise-in-hate-crime/

I don't think Germany has yet voted to leave the EU.

Rinoa

setmefree2 wrote: »

Irish POV

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/british-push-to-abolish-customs-union-is-madness-34918573.html

That's a bit rich from the Irish. A couple of days ago they were encouraging London finance firms to move to Dublin.

setmefree2

Should the UK remain in the EU customs union after Brexit?

When it comes to world trade law, there are clear distinctions between a free trade area and a customs union. Under the law of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), a free trade area means that substantially all of the barriers to trade in goods (there is no WTO equivalent for services) between the countries in the area have been abolished. A customs union goes a step beyond: the countries concerned not only abolish substantially all barriers to trade in goods, they also have the same rules for trading with the outside world.

Free trade area vs customs union

As a practical example, Canada, the US and Mexico have a free trade deal, known as NAFTA. But the US embargoes trade with Cuba, whereas Canada and Mexico trade with that country. Mexico signed a trade deal with the EU years ago; Canada has just agreed one; and the US is still negotiating one, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
On the other hand, the EU is a customs union. This means its members, including the UK, cannot sign separate trade agreements with countries such as India or China. It is, however, possible for the UK to sign a more general type of commercial “trade deal”, such as selling aircraft to India.
Around the world, free trade areas are more popular than customs unions. But states still do sign customs unions, because having common rules on trade with the outside world simplifies the trade between members of the customs union.
For example, in the NAFTA free trade area, when goods are shipped from Canada to the US, American officials must perform a number of checks. They must check to see whether they are actually Canadian goods (which can enter tariff-free), Cuban goods (in principle banned), or goods from any other country (which are subject to a tariff). Whether a good is Canadian or not depends on complex “rules of origin”, which set out how much of a car (and thousands of other products) must be produced in Canada for it to be called Canadian.
On the other hand, if products from China or Brazil are shipped through EU countries, such as from Rotterdam to Harwich, there is no need to carry out such checks. This is because the products would have been treated exactly the same way when they entered any EU country.
Stay or go?

When Britain triggers Article 50 of the EU treaty to leave the EU, it does not necessarily have to leave the customs union. The EU has signed customs union agreements with some micro-states such as San Marino, as well as with Turkey. So the UK could ask to retain participation in the European customs union if it wants to.
Leaving would have both pros and cons for the UK. On the one hand, it would mean that the UK could sign free trade deals with more countries – although not everyone sees the appeal of such deals. On the other hand, it would mean extra paperwork for British exporters to the EU to prove that their product is fully “made in Britain”.
Could more checks become reality? Brian Lawless / PA Wire There is a particular issue with Northern Ireland, too. If the UK leaves the EU customs union, in principle there would need to be checks at the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, because they would no longer be applying the same law on trade with the outside world. If there weren’t checks, and the UK had a future free trade deal with China that was different to EU-China’s trade relationship, Chinese products could be shipped to Northern Ireland and then cross the border into the EU tariff-free, circumventing the EU rules.
In theory, it’s possible for Northern Ireland alone to remain part of the EU customs union – but that would mean creating economic barriers between its six counties and the rest of the UK. Another approach is to adapt an agreement that the EU already has with Switzerland (not in the EU, or the EU customs union) which sets out special procedures to facilitate trade despite the different trade rules with the outside world. That would mean the UK continuing to apply some of the EU’s customs law, however.

http://theconversation.com/should-the-uk-remain-in-the-eu-customs-union-after-brexit-63179

CLAPTON

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://theconversation.com/should-the-uk-remain-in-the-eu-customs-union-after-brexit-63179

seems like a very powerful argument why the EU would agree to a free trade area with the UK without free movement or people or agreeing their rules
or
why the EU would fund and support a hard barrier between NI and Eire.

jimpix12

ukcarper wrote: »

May be they have, but do you think they came on TV and lied.

No! Of course not. Agents don't lie.

You guys are aware you're creating utter PANIC in the markets by repeatedly replying to this thread? All of us here know that everything is just dandy with the housing market, prices are up, Brexit is just a 6 letter word. I really think you need to stop worrying people unduly.