If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Liam Fox the international trade secretary, has said he expects the issue of Britain’s relations with the EU to be resolved by 2020, the date of the next election. He suggested the UK would not trigger article 50, which starts the clock on the UK’s negotiations to withdraw from the EU, until early in the new year, and said he did not expect the UK to join a customs union with the EU.
His remarks in the Wall Street Journal are possibly the most specific timetable to be set out by a UK cabinet minister since the referendum a month ago. It is also potentially significant that Fox does not foresee the UK continuing an institutional relationship with the EU in the future.

He added that London would probably seek to enter a free-trade agreement with the EU, rather than a closer “customs union” that could restrict its ability to negotiate lower tariffs with other trading partners.

In Washington, Fox and the UK ambassador, Kim Darroch, met the commerce secretary, Penny Pritzker, and the US trade representative, Mike Froman.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/26/british-eu-relations-to-be-resolved-by-2020-says-liam-fox

setmefree2

Liam Fox slapped down by No 10 on post-Brexit trade deal

On a trip to the US, eurosceptic MP Mr Fox said the Government would likely seek a free-trade agreement with the EU rather than a closer “customs union”.
Prime Minister Theresa May and Chancellor Philip Hammond have both suggested they would prefer Britain to remain part of the EU single market.

Downing Street was forced to clarify Dr Fox’s comments, saying no decision had been made on whether Britain would seek to be part of the EU customs union.
If it did so it would increase the barriers to striking free trade deals elsewhere, as the UK would be forced to agree to tariffs on goods imported from outside the union.
But not being part of the EU customs union would mean all goods coming into the UK would be subject to border restrictions and checks - which would affect trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/business-regulation/news/77695/liam-fox-slapped-down-no-10-post-brexit-trade-deal

Rinoa

Let battle commence

Who is Michel Barnier, the man appointed by Juncker to be the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator? An ultra-interventionist, dirigiste Frenchman with a history of bashing Britain and getting into fights with UK governments. This FT article from 2011 gives a taste of what he is like:

“Sir Mervyn King is not known as a man given to shouting. But during a meeting this summer in the genteel surroundings of London’s Threadneedle Street, the Bank of England governor let fly. The visitor sitting across from him was threatening to rein in the governor’s new powers to set capital rules for Britain’s banks. Sir Mervyn was having none of it. As his voice rose, his interpreter grew increasingly startled – particularly as the Frenchman refused to back down. An hour later, Sir Mervyn’s hands were still shaking when he sat down for lunch with George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer.”

When barmy Barnier was appointed to his role as EU financial services chief, Nicolas Sarkozy boasted that France had achieved a victory over “Anglo-Saxon capitalism”. In 2009 Gordon Brown flipped out when Sarkozy said Barnier’s appointment meant Britain were “big losers”. In 2010 the Telegraph described him as “the most dangerous man in Europe”. In 2013 Barnier told Britain to accept punitive regulation of the City or leave the EU. This appointment is a an act of war…

http://order-order.com/2016/07/27/juncker-appoints-hardline-britain-basher-eu-brexit-negotiator/

setmefree2

Whitehall split on a UK exit of EU customs union

International trade secretary Liam Fox hopes to prove gains from leaving union outweigh potential losses

Liam Fox travelled from Washington to Chicago on Tuesday as he continued a three-stop US tour, determined to prove that Britain can strike better trade deals and open new opportunities for exporters outside the EU.
Dr Fox, the new international trade secretary, is confident he can prove to sceptics in government — including the Treasury — that the freedoms gained by leaving the EU’s customs union outweigh the potential losses.
The customs union is an area that allows the free movement of goods with no tariffs, but with barriers at the bloc’s external airports, ports and land borders. The EU negotiates external tariffs and trade deals on behalf of its members.
Government insiders say there is a “live debate” in government about whether Britain should quit the customs union, even though staying inside it could restrict Dr Fox’s ability to strike new free trade deals or prevent them altogether.

The question has barely registered in Britain’s political consciousness so far, since most attention has focused on the related question of whether the UK should retain access to the EU’s single market.

Norway, often cited as a possible template for post-Brexit Britain, is a member of the European Economic Area and has tariff-free access to the single market for most goods, but is outside the customs union.
That means that Norwegian exporters face additional administrative costs: all goods entering the customs union face customs controls, mandatory paperwork and — depending on the goods and their origin — duties to pay.

The Treasury, in a report published before the referendum, cited a study by the OECD that found “crossing the border, documentation and other delays can increase the transaction costs of trade by up to 24 per cent of the value of traded goods”.
It warned that even if Britain negotiated tariff-free access to the single market, customs formalities would particularly hit time-sensitive industries such as food and those with complex supply chains such as automotive and aerospace companies.
In the case of Northern Ireland, the Treasury said “goods being exported across the border could be subject to various forms of customs controls”, hitting the high level of trade with the Republic of Ireland.
“The latest data shows 37 per cent (£3.6bn) of Northern Ireland’s goods and services exports go to Ireland,” the report said. Ireland is the province’s biggest export market.
Peter Mandelson, former Northern Ireland secretary, said that without customs checks, the border between the UK and the EU customs union would become “lawless”, with smugglers seeking to evade tariffs and other formalities.

It is possible to be part of the EU customs union and not part of the EU: the Channel Islands, Monaco and San Marino are members. So too is Turkey, when it comes to some classes of goods, but it is not an attractive template.
According to the Treasury, Turkey has no say over the EU’s external trade policy but must abide by the trade agreements the EU strikes with third countries, reducing its tariff rates to those set by the EU.
But the country in question does not have to reciprocate that improved access to Turkey. Ankara has to negotiate separate trade deals with third countries, having already provided improved access to its own market — not a task that would appeal to Dr Fox.

Winning an agreement that retains British frontier-free access to the EU customs union, continued access to the tariff-free EU single market, while exiting the EU and restricting free movement would be a remarkable achievement.

https://next.ft.com/content/35063b50-532b-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60

Aberdeenangarse

wotsthat wrote: »

errr. No myths have been busted. His own figures show the better educated voted remain

What was your excuse?

setmefree2

UK trade minister's quest begins with hiring negotiators

The minister taking the first tricky steps to re-negotiating Britain's trade deals in a post-Brexit world said on Tuesday he is taking a methodical approach and first needs to ramp up his staff to around 300, from 40 now, over the next few months.
Mark Price, the UK's Minister of State for Trade and Investment, said in an interview in New York that he was meeting with U.S. policymakers and investors to start imagining what "the shape of" free trade agreements may be once Britain ultimately leaves the European Union.

For a start, his department needs to bulk up with negotiators and others.
"We've just started the process now, we're building our organizational structure, recruiting the people to come in. You can't do that overnight," he told Reuters, adding: "We think 300 is where we need to get to."
Asked about the cost of hiring Britain's new negotiators, Price, a former managing director of supermarket chain Waitrose, said he had no estimate but added, "trained negotiators are going to not be inexpensive."
Nearly half of UK exports go to the EU but beyond that, Price said the United States and China are priorities for trade negotiations.
Over the next 12 months Price's team would start working through the options for a U.S. deal, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP), which the United States is now negotiating with the EU, is "a great piece of work to build upon," he said. "I suspect we'd push for even greater liberalism within it," Price added.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-trade-idUKKCN1062CG

setmefree2

Industrial production drives surprise boost for UK economy

The UK economy picked up pace in the run-up to the Brexit vote thanks to the strongest performance from industrial production since 1999

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in its initial estimate for the second quarter, up from 0.4% in the first quarter of 2016.
The higher-than-expected figure was driven in part by a swing in industrial production, which rose 2.1% over the period - matching figures last seen 17 years ago - compared with a 0.2% fall in the quarter before.

http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/economy-beats-forecasts-to-grow-by-06-in-second-quarter-11364075819107

setmefree2

FTSE 100 hits fresh one-year high but pound slides below $1.31 as UK economy grows by 0.6pc before Brexit vote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/27/ftse-100-set-to-open-higher-as-markets-eye-us-fed-rates-decision/

setmefree2

Thousands of house sales across London have collapsed since the Brexit vote as alarmed buyers scramble to pull out of “overpriced” deals, the Standard has learned.
The surge in “failed sales” comes amid growing evidence of a sharp fall in prices since the 23 June Referendum - with one early survey suggesting a 12 per cent drop.
The fallout has been most severe in the centre of the capital, where agents said that up to two-thirds of the offers they were handling on he day of the Referendum have been withdrawn or are being renegotiated.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-how-thousands-of-house-deals-collapsed-in-london-due-to-brexit-a3305526.html

setmefree2

UK retailers saw biggest fall in sales in four years after Brexit vote

British retailers suffered the sharpest fall in sales in four years following the June 23 vote to leave the European Union, the Confederation of British Industry said on Wednesday.
Stores have also cut orders with suppliers by the most since the 2008-09 financial crisis because they expect a further fall in demand in August, the CBI said - though it cautioned against drawing too strong conclusions from the figures.
"While conditions in the retail sector have weakened, we should be careful about reading too much too soon, as consumers were likely to err on the side of caution in the immediate period following a vote to leave the EU," CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said.
The data represents an early gauge of how the retail sector has fared since the unexpected vote to leave the EU.

The numbers cover the period from June 28 to July 14, when Britain's Conservative Party was in the process of selecting a permanent successor to former prime minister David Cameron, who said after the vote that he would resign.
The CBI said its retail sales volume index for July fell to -14 from +4 in June, its lowest since January 2012.

Orders placed with suppliers fell at the sharpest rate since March 2009 and were expected to decline rapidly in August too.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail-idUKKCN10714C