If we vote for Brexit what happens

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Of course, and people who claim to own a house mortgage free tend not to spend lots of time on internet forums "policing" any conversations about falling prices......right? :rotfl:

What do you mean "claim I own my property" like many people my age I own my house . Coming from someone who claims his rent hasn't increased in 20 years I find your accusation a bit rich.

I pick you up because you claim your opinions are fact when they are just your opinion and you have been spouting them for years. The one thing I know is nobody can predict what is going to happen to house prices and those that say they can are wrong more often than they are right.

ukcarper

brit1234 wrote: »

Investors do. Remember a lot of the property is owned by buy to let investors and many of being selling at the peak of the market especially with the landlord tax changes.

Continuing house price falls will be good for the economy, we had a huge housing bubble, far bigger than 2008. Its only healthy that first time buyers can buy again with a reasonable deposit and good wage.

Clamp downs on money laundering and tax havens will also force prices down.

Some investors do and some are in it for the long term none of the landlords I know are even considering selling thier property.

I agree it would be better if prices in London and the south east were lower but I don't agree it's a bubble or that a crash would be good for the economy. I've said before I think that stagnation or small falls would be the best thing that could happen.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

a 1 or 2 % fall in GDP is very signiificant : falling house prices would probably mean falling rental incomes : both a good thing that makes the majority better off.

Are you suggesting there is a way for GDP to fall and wages and employment to rise? Care to provide any evidence of this ever happening?

Out of interest what do you think rents will be higher or lower in 5 years?

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Are you suggesting there is a way for GDP to fall and wages and employment to rise? Care to provide any evidence of this ever happening?

Out of interest what do you think rents will be higher or lower in 5 years?

your maths is good enough to confirm that GDP can fall and wages can rise.
given your frequent posting that we have full employment whyever do you want employment to rise ?

anyway my argument was that given the artificiality of the god 'GDP', ordinary people will be better off with lower house prices and lower rents which could show as a lower GDP

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

your maths is good enough to confirm that GDP can fall and wages can rise.
given your frequent posting that we have full employment whyever do you want employment to rise ?

anyway my argument was that given the artificiality of the god 'GDP', ordinary people will be better off with lower house prices and lower rents which could show as a lower GDP

It's virtually impossible if it isn't show one time its happened in any country

As I said GDP is largely a measure of wages. In a developed nation about 70% of GDP is wages. There is virtually no way for GDP to go down but wages to go up.

Its easily to prove mathematically but I won't bore you with that I will just ask that you provide any evidence of wages going up while GDP goes down for any sustained period.

So be decent and accept that falling GDP means 'to the man on the street' that his wage is falling or he and his friends are getting fired

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

ordinary people will be better off with lower house prices and lower rents which could show as a lower GDP

What do you define as ordinary people?

The majority of people are not short housing. Only about 20% of households are. And if you take a whole of life approach even fewer households are. So 20% of households might benefit from lower house prices and lower rents.

However its not clear at all that rents or prices will be lower. As I keep reminding you the period between 2000-2004 was mad HPI in pretty much every single region of the UK a time when population growth was much lower and new build rates higher.

There is a huge demand for property from demographic changes (people living longer and getting divorced) The UK needs at least 4 million more homes over the next 20 years even if population stays absolutely flat for the next 20 years. Even after that point the UK would have fewer homes per capita than France Germany Spain etc

Also something you probably haven't thought about. A lot of the regeneration of the council housing stock was possible thanks to high house prices. The council got to trade in !!!! 60 year old cheap crap blocks for brand newkx developments built to much stricter and better building regulations

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

What do you define as ordinary people?

The majority of people are not short housing. Only about 20% of households are. And if you take a whole of life approach even fewer households are. So 20% of households might benefit from lower house prices and lower rents.

However its not clear at all that rents or prices will be lower. As I keep reminding you the period between 2000-2004 was mad HPI in pretty much every single region of the UK a time when population growth was much lower and new build rates higher.

There is a huge demand for property from demographic changes (people living longer and getting divorced) The UK needs at least 4 million more homes over the next 20 years even if population stays absolutely flat for the next 20 years. Even after that point the UK would have fewer homes per capita than France Germany Spain etc

Also something you probably haven't thought about. A lot of the regeneration of the council housing stock was possible thanks to high house prices. The council got to trade in !!!! 60 year old cheap crap blocks for brand newkx developments built to much stricter and better building regulations

maybe maybe not
but nothing to do with whether a lower GDP number can provide a better standard of living and/or change in employment

buglawton

cells wrote: »

It's virtually impossible if it isn't show one time its happened in any country

As I said GDP is largely a measure of wages. In a developed nation about 70% of GDP is wages. There is virtually no way for GDP to go down but wages to go up.

Its easily to prove mathematically but I won't bore you with that I will just ask that you provide any evidence of wages going up while GDP goes down for any sustained period.

So be decent and accept that falling GDP means 'to the man on the street' that his wage is falling or he and his friends are getting fired

Wages rising while GDP falls: There was even a term coined for this phenomenon that lasted a large part of the 1970s: Stagflation.

Wow my spelling autocorrect even found it!

wotsthat

Falling exchange rate = not brexit but an inevitable awakening to the trade deficit.

Falling GDP = not brexit but a good thing where living costs fall and wages rise.

I'm sure we'll be fine but the partisan nature of some of the crap on here surprises even me.

jojo_bambi

I'm near the end of the house buying process and just asked for a discount on the house in light of the economy uncertainty. Now not heard anything in a couple of days... do you think this was the right thing to have done?!