If we vote for Brexit what happens

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I rent a flat and I am going to go out on a limb and claim that house prices are in a bubble. When was the last time you investigated the rental available in the SE?

I don't investigate the rental market in the south east but I have an idea of the rental market in my area as I know a couple of landlords as well as people who rent. You live in Scotland and claim to know what is happening in the south east and keep spouting HPC rhetoric to try and back it up.

cells

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What relevance is GDP? Gets bandied around like a lost Holy Grail. Far better and more accurate measurements to judge the economy on going forward. GDP is what politicians talk about. To the man on the street it's an irrelevance. Makes no difference at all in fact.

GDP is just a name given to all the wages received in the economy. About 70% of GDP is wages.

So unless the 'man on the street' is reciveing a fixed guaranteed pension a fall in GDP means some of these 'men on the street' will lose their jobs and a great many of them will get no pay increases and less pay rises. If they understand this they understand the importance but yes the ones who can't link GDP to wages will think its just a number that won't impact real 'mans on the street'

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I would say the smart sellers are out already.

This is where you HPC clowns get it totally wrong. People do not try and sell their homes at the highest price they just live in them and get on with their lives. If you spend your life trying to time the property market you will have a frustrating life.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

GDP is just a name given to all the wages received in the economy. About 70% of GDP is wages.

So unless the 'man on the street' is reciveing a fixed guaranteed pension a fall in GDP means some of these 'men on the street' will lose their jobs and a great many of them will get no pay increases and less pay rises. If they understand this they understand the importance but yes the ones who can't link GDP to wages will think its just a number that won't impact real 'mans on the street'

GDP also include imputed rent which is roughly based on house prices : so as house prices rise GDP rises too: this doesn't link directly to wages or goods and services consumed.
so a fall in GDP doesn't mean anyone loses their jobs.

wotsthat

A fall in GDP isn't necessarily a bad thing to the 'man on the street' but it usually is.

brit1234

ukcarper wrote: »

This is where you HPC clowns get it totally wrong. People do not try and sell their homes at the highest price they just live in them and get on with their lives. If you spend your life trying to time the property market you will have a frustrating life.

Investors do. Remember a lot of the property is owned by buy to let investors and many of being selling at the peak of the market especially with the landlord tax changes.

Continuing house price falls will be good for the economy, we had a huge housing bubble, far bigger than 2008. Its only healthy that first time buyers can buy again with a reasonable deposit and good wage.

Clamp downs on money laundering and tax havens will also force prices down.

jimbog

Crashy_Time wrote: »

In the real world people usually walk away to another rented flat, radical concept I know, but that doesn`t change the fact that you can`t just "walk away" when stuck with a mortgage and negative equity.

Was wondering Crashy, for how many years have you now been in rental waiting for the crash?

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

This is where you HPC clowns get it totally wrong. People do not try and sell their homes at the highest price they just live in them and get on with their lives. If you spend your life trying to time the property market you will have a frustrating life.

Of course, and people who claim to own a house mortgage free tend not to spend lots of time on internet forums "policing" any conversations about falling prices......right? :rotfl:

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

GDP also include imputed rent which is roughly based on house prices : so as house prices rise GDP rises too: this doesn't link directly to wages or goods and services consumed.
so a fall in GDP doesn't mean anyone loses their jobs.

Aprox 70% of GDP is wages 30% is 'capital' which includes imputed rent. It is possible that the ratio could change but its very unlikely to change much.

So if GDP goes down it means wages are going down.

Furthermore more rents are payed than imputed rents. About 55% of the housing stock is rented and probably closer to 90% of commercial and industrial units are rented. Not to mention rwbta and house prices are not strongly linked. Prices doubled in London from 2010-2015 but rents certainly didn't.

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Aprox 70% of GDP is wages 30% is 'capital' which includes imputed rent. It is possible that the ratio could change but its very unlikely to change much.

So if GDP goes down it means wages are going down.

Furthermore more rents are payed than imputed rents. About 55% of the housing stock is rented and probably closer to 90% of commercial and industrial units are rented. Not to mention rwbta and house prices are not strongly linked. Prices doubled in London from 2010-2015 but rents certainly didn't.

a 1 or 2 % fall in GDP is very signiificant : falling house prices would probably mean falling rental incomes : both a good thing that makes the majority better off.