If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

I would be quite surprised if in practice this is happening. I imagine that the UK is probably discussing possibilities in some covert form. If they are not then it gives the impression that the EU wants Britain out without any attempt to have a close relationship.

Nothing covert plenty of views being expressed by Government ministers. Jean-Claude Juncker appears to be upsetting various people though. Sturgeon may be tying her flag to the wrong mast though.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

Thats not what you have said in the past and what have they done since 2007. You have no more idea what is going to happen than me and your nonsense is OK on discussion forum where this thread should be, but not here.

Happy to put my hands up to any links you have of me predicting a crash 20 years ago. That would be what, 1996? That is before I owned a computer :rotfl: Back then houses were very affordable compared to now. What happened after 2007 was that there was a large correction to house prices which couldn`t be allowed as the banks would have all gone bust, so the PTB stepped in (globally) with emergency rates and QE. The question is how long can they keep propping things up, and could they deal with an event like the break up of the EZ, and would prices in London and elsewhere survive a situation like that?

Crashy_Time

economic wrote: »

clearly neither of you understand how markets function.

Very interested to hear how you think the present day property market functions.

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Happy to put my hands up to any links you have of me predicting a crash 20 years ago. That would be what, 1996? That is before I owned a computer :rotfl: Back then houses were very affordable compared to now. What happened after 2007 was that there was a large correction to house prices which couldn`t be allowed as the banks would have all gone bust, so the PTB stepped in (globally) with emergency rates and QE. The question is how long can they keep propping things up, and could they deal with an event like the break up of the EZ, and would prices in London and elsewhere survive a situation like that?

Same old arguments and yes you might not have posted in 1996 but you have made references to the past in recent posts. Also property was very affordable in 1996 but that is because they were the lowest they have been since earning to house price ratio was published in the early 50s.

buglawton

This Panorama episode yesterday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07k7m4x/panorama-why-we-voted-to-leave-britain-speaks
...showed graphically that it's the effect of globalisation hitting the UK's less adaptable people that's caused Brexit.

Panorama should have explored the deeper economic picture not just the human stories. If it had not been cheap East-EU labour undercutting pay by 50% in already weak industrial regions, the last bits of industry would have closed sooner and goods simply arrive direct from China and India.
Not sure what's best!

The UK needs to have a proper hotshot globalisation dept to keep a track on how the UK gets buffeted around and do we take import with minimal tariffs of all goods from developing counties seriously - never mind the EU migration issue.

Enough there for a 2nd Panorama prog!

jimpix12

For heaven's sakes STOP talking the market down by adding to this thread or people will cotton on.

Buy buy buy!

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

Same old arguments and yes you might not have posted in 1996 but you have made references to the past in recent posts. Also property was very affordable in 1996 but that is because they were the lowest they have been since earning to house price ratio was published in the early 50s.

What do you think happened in`08? I would love to hear your alternative version. "Making references to the past" is not the same as "Predicting prices would crash 20 years ago"!

mwpt

buglawton wrote: »

This Panorama episode yesterday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07k7m4x/panorama-why-we-voted-to-leave-britain-speaks
...showed graphically that it's the effect of globalisation hitting the UK's less adaptable people that's caused Brexit.

Panorama should have explored the deeper economic picture not just the human stories. If it had not been cheap East-EU labour undercutting pay by 50% in already weak industrial regions, the last bits of industry would have closed sooner and goods simply arrive direct from China and India.
Not sure what's best!

The UK needs to have a proper hotshot globalisation dept to keep a track on how the UK gets buffeted around and do we take import with minimal tariffs of all goods from developing counties seriously - never mind the EU migration issue.

Enough there for a 2nd Panorama prog!

Errr, isn't this what I have said multiples times on this forum and been either shot down or ignored by the leave voters?

Wage suppression is a global phenomenon. It was not caused by the EU and it isn't going to be solved by leaving the EU. We have chosen a very difficult economic path because a !!!!ing stupid YES/NO type vote allowed people to tick a box meaning "NO, I am not satisfied with life".

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

What do you think happened in`08? I would love to hear your alternative version. "Making references to the past" is not the same as "Predicting prices would crash 20 years ago"!

Prices fell but where I am they are about 40% above what they were in 2007. I never saw that coming and it is extremely difficult to predict what will happen, so anybody coming on here stating categorically that they now what is going to happen is foolish to say the least.

It is if you held off buying for the last 20 years because you thought prices would fall.

This is not the right forum for wild speculation and I would suggest that if people want to they should do it on the discussion forum.

Kurt79

I am in the middle of selling and buying a house. So I have been reading through all these threads with interest!

We got a buyer very quickly for our property (beginning of June). In fact we had a viewing on the same day we signed up with the EA, and offered the next morning. So our property was sold (STC) before it hit Rightmove. We accepted a couple thousand less than we were listing for.

The buyers were a young couple (FTB's). Then the shock of the brexit vote came in. Straight away I had it in my mind that our buyers would pull out. My missus called me pessimistic, I called it realistic: They were a young couple that hadn't yet experienced any kind of situation like 2006/2007 presented, so I thought they would get cold feet. Sure enough, Monday morning I get a call from our EA to tell us they have pulled out.

We got our property on Rightmove again, and had a viewing on Tuesday. Then a second viewing on Thursday. The Thursday viewing, we got offered...we countered, they countered....and we settled on exactly what our first buyers were offering.

We had a few other viewings scheduled for the weekend, which we then cancelled due to the new buyer (thank goodness, because rushing around putting away photos and hoovering and polishing every time a viewing happened was getting tiresome!). So the market (at least in our area) is still buoyant.

The way I see it, there are two types of buyers: those that are looking at how much the house will be worth when they come to sell it; and those that want to live in the new house. The first type of person is going to be put off by what is happening in the market because they are looking at the house purchase as an investment. However the second type of person just wants a home to live in (i.e. their dream house, needing more space, or even downsizing).

Not once have I even considered pulling out of the purchase of the house we found (or offering less for it). It will be our home for the next 20 years or more and it is perfect for what we need. The markets are pretty volatile at the moment...but nothing as bad as it was during the crisis a few years ago. I was trying to sell a house at the end of 2007...so believe me, I have been through it (eventually sold in 2012)!

Are house prices too high? Maybe. But things will only sell for what people are willing to pay for them. I originally come from a country that has over 12% inflation rate...where you are lucky to get a mortgage for less than 15%, but people are still buying and selling houses there. People need to put some perspective on the current "crisis".