If we vote for Brexit what happens

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kabayiri wrote: »

Well I'm a fan of an insurance backed health service paid for on a consumption basis. That might be too right wing for most, best left for another thread.

We do tend to assume that it is only UK that have these views different from the Rest of Europe block.

I'm not sure this is true. My experience of Poles for example, is that they are a strong minded bunch too. They will act in self interest too, if needs be.

Some common points there! On the first, for example, I have private medical insurance for parts the NHS does not reach and would dearly like to have it provided by a more commercial NHS which would then benefit from the money. But as you say, that's for another thread some time. Cue for apoplexy by the very left!

mystic_trev

The YouGov survey found that 45 per cent of people will vote to leave the EU compared with 36 per cent who want to remain, while 19 per cent do not know or would not vote. Excluding the “don’t knows”, this means 56 per cent want to leave while 44 per cent want to remain.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4683420.ece

Carl31

mystic_trev wrote: »

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4683420.ece

I dont really see that yougov is a great indicator of anything, only certain types of people go online to do surveys

But, I think if yougov are saying that the 'out's are winning, the reality will be by a higher margin, I reckon theres a lot of 'keep the immigrants out', sun reader, type people that miss these polls that will also vote out, where 'in' voters will more likely make effort to get their voices heard

kabayiri

Carl31 wrote: »

...

But, I think if yougov are saying that the 'out's are winning, the reality will be by a higher margin, I reckon theres a lot of 'keep the immigrants out', sun reader, type people that miss these polls that will also vote out, where 'in' voters will more likely make effort to get their voices heard

I watched the QT debate last night and the EU related topics were handled by the panel in a depressingly familiar manner.

Panelists were still trying to score party political points.

I wonder if it would be better to try and shed the party lines from the discussions. I think it harms the 'In' campaign because people will conflate local issues with the wider and longer term issue about whether the EU is something we support or not.

Carl31

kabayiri wrote: »

I watched the QT debate last night and the EU related topics were handled by the panel in a depressingly familiar manner.

Panelists were still trying to score party political points.

I wonder if it would be better to try and shed the party lines from the discussions. I think it harms the 'In' campaign because people will conflate local issues with the wider and longer term issue about whether the EU is something we support or not.

I think part of the problem is the 'in' campaign only really have the 'its better for the economy' line. A lot of people don't pay attention to the economy, or understand it. What they see is problems with housing, getting doctors appointments, Hospital waiting lists etc.. assume this is due to more people, ie immigration and conclude Brexit = stop

Then theres those who do understand the economy, and are still voting for brexit...

vivatifosi

Carl31 wrote: »

I think part of the problem is the 'in' campaign only really have the 'its better for the economy' line. A lot of people don't pay attention to the economy, or understand it. What they see is problems with housing, getting doctors appointments, Hospital waiting lists etc.. assume this is due to more people, ie immigration and conclude Brexit = stop

Then theres those who do understand the economy, and are still voting for brexit...

On the hospital waiting list point, the average number of hospital beds in the UK I read yesterday is 3 per 1000 people, compared to 6 in France and 8 in Germany. Where michaels and I live, the figure is even lower... 1.5 per 1000 and there is a chronic shortage. Given that overpopulation of the UK has far from doubled due to migration, then that indicates that we had an undersupply to start with. No matter how rubbish the EU can be at times, I can't pin shortage of hospital.beds on the EU.

mwpt

From a guardian article:

A new poll has suggested more Britons favour leaving the EU over staying in, with 45% supporting “Brexit” compared with 36% against, while a fifth remain undecided.

Hardly surprising. I thought IN was a sure thing last year but I'm starting to have my doubts.

N1AK

vivatifosi wrote: »

No matter how rubbish the EU can be at times, I can't pin shortage of hospital.beds on the EU.

Well I'm glad you can't but sadly the same can't be said of the wider population. I don't think I know anyone who has expressed a desire to leave the EU where the belief that services like the NHS, public transport etc are struggling/failing due to immigration.

Half of them just don't like the EU or immigration and hiding that behind a concern about services is seen to be more publicly acceptable, a small chunk of the rest wouldn't change their minds in any circumstance, which leaves a decent chunk that could. Sadly listening to a long, data heavy justification of how services can be managed to handle changing populations, have been in the past, and are being in other countries with higher immigration now isn't that appealing; and the false narrative that if there are more people the same amount of service must be spread thinner is superficially persuasive and snappy.

N1AK

Carl31 wrote: »

I dont really see that yougov is a great indicator of anything, only certain types of people go online to do surveys

But, I think if yougov are saying that the 'out's are winning, the reality will be by a higher margin, I reckon theres a lot of 'keep the immigrants out', sun reader, type people that miss these polls that will also vote out, where 'in' voters will more likely make effort to get their voices heard

That isn't my personal experience, though clearly it'd be interesting to see some wider analysis. People who are pro-EU don't tend to go on about it, join protest parties etc. People don't randomly drop how wonderful the EU is into conversations in the way that many will inject the EU as a bogeyman into discussions about almost anything.

Graham_Devon

N1AK wrote: »

Well I'm glad you can't but sadly the same can't be said of the wider population. I don't think I know anyone who has expressed a desire to leave the EU where the belief that services like the NHS, public transport etc are struggling/failing due to immigration.

Half of them just don't like the EU or immigration and hiding that behind a concern about services is seen to be more publicly acceptable, a small chunk of the rest wouldn't change their minds in any circumstance, which leaves a decent chunk that could. Sadly listening to a long, data heavy justification of how services can be managed to handle changing populations, have been in the past, and are being in other countries with higher immigration now isn't that appealing; and the false narrative that if there are more people the same amount of service must be spread thinner is superficially persuasive and snappy.

But surely if you have a supply issue (in this case, beds), adding a few hundred thousand people a year isn't going to help.

There are some, of course, that blame immigration for everything and I won't deny that.

All many are saying though is that if we are not going to sort the infrastructure out (which it's pretty damn clear we are not as we are currently in the process of removing beds) then we need to look at the demand side.

If there was a genuine desire, and real action to sort out the infrastructure issues, I doubt people would point at the demand side quite so much.