If we vote for Brexit what happens

buglawton

Generali wrote: »

Why? Would the steel price not have collapsed if the UK wasn't in the EU?

The UK government would have been able to take a more interventionist stand. Or be accountable for not doing anything.

You can't control the weather but you can do something about the supply of umbrellas.

TrickyTree83

BobQ wrote: »

Trade deals are almost by definition mutual agreements to balance protectionism in each nation with the benefits of the wider trading opportunities. All nations try to negotiate the best deal. It perhaps follows that the side that gets the best deal is the one with the greater bargaining power.

I am glad you see the post Brexit scenario as negotiating trade deals. The prominent pro-Brexit economist (Patrick Minford) who co-authored the economists for Brexit paper, advocates the UK outside of the EU trading with the whole world under WTO terms. While I do not agree, he is advocating massive structural changes to the UK economy to do this so rather than negotiating better terms with the EU.

I suspect in the world of macroeconomics as an elderly academic with a secure job he is less concerned with the micro worlds in which people get made redundant due to necessary structural changes.

But isn't free market economics all about the best companies and ideas survive and the weak companies perish?

So if flawed industry which only survives due to protectionism has to fade away and make way for industry that does work surely we would end up with a more sensible and dynamic economy instead of what we see across the EU which is stagnation.

BobQ

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

But isn't free market economics all about the best companies and ideas survive and the weak companies perish?

So if flawed industry which only survives due to protectionism has to fade away and make way for industry that does work surely we would end up with a more sensible and dynamic economy instead of what we see across the EU which is stagnation.

It is and at the macro level it is fine provided you accept the social consequences of making these structural changes. As we have seen in coal and steel communities the impact has human costs.

Minford does not elaborate the social changes.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

It is and at the macro level it is fine provided you accept the social consequences of making these structural changes. As we have seen in coal and steel communities the impact has human costs.

Minford does not elaborate the social changes.

which human costs are you referring to ?
the extreme proverty of pre industrial society?
the injury and disease etc of coal mining

or the rich and excellent society we now live in?

Moby

If we brexit apparently there will be a huge outbreak of immorality:-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/23/eu-referendum-david-cameron-and-george-osborne-warn-brexit-would/
.....and yet 'call me dave was saying a few months ago he would recommend a vote to leave unless he got a good deal. That must have been one hell of a deal!

The Brexiteers are now finding out in the same way that Labour did that the establishment steam roller will say whatever it takes to win. In the election it was fear of Nicola Sturgeon and now it's everything from immorality to WW3. It does make me think though.....Cameron is laying it on so thick he could face a backlash!:eek:

mayonnaise

EU referendum poll: pensioners, Tory voters and men are deserting the Brexit campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/23/eu-referendum-poll-pensioners-tory-voters-and-men-are-deserting/

In March, the polling found that 60 per cent of Conservatives were intending to vote Leave compared to 34 per cent for Remain.

Tuesday's poll finds that among Tory voters, 57 per cent now say they will vote to stay in the EU, compared to 40 per cent backing Leave.

That's quite a swing. Any suggestions as to why this is happening?

TrickyTree83

mayonnaise wrote: »

EU referendum poll: pensioners, Tory voters and men are deserting the Brexit campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/23/eu-referendum-poll-pensioners-tory-voters-and-men-are-deserting/


That's quite a swing. Any suggestions as to why this is happening?

I'd suggest it's not and that the pollsters really have as much idea what is going on as the average person on the street.

TrickyTree83

It could go either way for the pollsters, it's 50/50. If they're guessing right but they're a few percentage points out they'll tell us that the method works and they were right to predict what they did. If they're on the button someone in the industry will be hailed as the second coming of Nostradamus and if they get it wrong they'll just shrug and tell us it's not an exact science like they did last time.

I don't believe that the polls serve any purpose at all. If they called me up and asked what my religion was I could tell them I was a Jedi.

Filo25

I would tend to agree that its probably just a rogue poll, obviously the more you cut the data into sub-groups the smaller the sample sizes get, and the less reliable the data becomes.

Filo25

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It could go either way for the pollsters, it's 50/50. If they're guessing right but they're a few percentage points out they'll tell us that the method works and they were right to predict what they did. If they're on the button someone in the industry will be hailed as the second coming of Nostradamus and if they get it wrong they'll just shrug and tell us it's not an exact science like they did last time.

I don't believe that the polls serve any purpose at all. If they called me up and asked what my religion was I could tell them I was a Jedi.

They do serve a purpose but its always more difficult to poll for one-off events like this, you can't ask people how they voted last time so that you could use the previous vote as a baseline.

Tough to get representative samples in all ways as well, there are certain factors which strongly influence how people will vote.

Yougov have already pointed out an issue with at least some of the Phone polls oversampling voters with a university level education, who are much more likely to vote remain.

I imagine future phone polls will be screening for that so we'll see if they yield radically different results.