If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

So many young people I know now start with £3-400k mortgages. Rising interest rates will cripple them, we'll have the highest repossession rate in history.

You mean they are borrowing to the maximum of their capacity and understood the risks that rates may rise in the future? I certainly don't think i'd be mortgaging myself to the hilt with Brexit looming and inflation where it's at.

kabayiri

Ballard wrote: »

I read today that London and the South East subsidise the rest of the UK to the tune of just over £3,000 per head per year. That's not a surprise and it's only right that the wealth is spread around but it does show the idiocy of those (remarkably there are some) who say that we can afford to lose the international banks. Quite incredibly some people are actually hoping that the banks leave.
...

£3K?

It's clearly not enough. The people of London / SE should be aiming for £5K at least. After all, Jeremy Kyle is running out of new guests...

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Ballard wrote: »

I read today that London and the South East subsidise the rest of the UK to the tune of just over £3,000 per head per year. That's not a surprise and it's only right that the wealth is spread around but it does show the idiocy of those (remarkably there are some) who say that we can afford to lose the international banks. Quite incredibly some people are actually hoping that the banks leave.

Obviously the wealth in London isn't solely the banks but they are a major part of it, whatever some people will have you believe.

I haven't seen anyone "hoping the banks leave"; what I have seen is some questioning of the numbers and possible impact.
Some, fortunately, are capable of more balanced reasoning than the doom and gloom portrayed so frequently in these forums.

Regarding such moves, I see today that even plans to remove Euro clearing from London are stalled because of squabbling within the EU:

Discord between the euro zone's three largest countries is stalling the European Central Bank's efforts to come up with a way to force euro clearing out of London and put it under its watch, three sources told Reuters.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-clearing-ecb-idUKKBN18I1B2

Infighting already?
Quelle surprise.
Expecting this avaricious supposedly single-minded bunch to agree anything Brexit-related without aeons of disagreement is pie-in-the-sky fantasy, as examples like this prove only to well.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What's changed? I haven't heard any murmurs from within the EU regarding FOM to entice the UK electorate to reconsider for example. Totally the reverse in fact. With the hard core Federalists now pushing forward with their vision of an integrated (albeit two speed) Europe. As it was the UK that was able to exert pressure to block such moves.

When someone asks for a divorce sometimes there is an attempt at reconciliation. However if both party's know the relationship has completely broken down there is no further discussion, you just get on with it.
Britain was a reluctant member of the EU for over 40 years. Given the trading of insults for the last 11 months since the referendum reconciliation is not on the table.
Both sides are heading to the lawyer (Brexit negotiations) on July 19th

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

When someone asks for a divorce sometimes there is an attempt at reconciliation. However if both party's know the relationship has completely broken down there is no further discussion, you just get on with it.
Britain was a reluctant member of the EU for over 40 years. Given the trading of insults for the last 11 months since the referendum reconciliation is not on the table.
Both sides are heading to the lawyer (Brexit negotiations) on July 19th

Trading of insults?
I know you're pro-EU but really?
Ever since campaigning for the EU referendum started it is very obvious where by far most of these insults come.
Indeed at times it has almost looked as if prominent EU politicos have been queueing up to get their twopenn'orth in.
It has been little short of shameful, frankly.

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Trading of insults?
I know you're pro-EU but really?
Ever since campaigning for the EU referendum started it is very obvious where by far most of these insults come.
Indeed at times it has almost looked as if prominent EU politicos have been queueing up to get their twopenn'orth in.
It has been little short of shameful, frankly.

I think it has worked for May, in that it has helped to expose their position and natural bias.

At the moment she is building her support at home.

The EU has mostly been faceless in the past. It's not now. They have faces now, the EU elite, and they are not exactly PR friendly.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

You mean they are borrowing to the maximum of their capacity and understood the risks that rates may rise in the future? I certainly don't think i'd be mortgaging myself to the hilt with Brexit looming and inflation where it's at.

They'd rather pay a mortgage than pay someone else's mortgage via rent.


If you want a 2 bed flat in my work area you are looking a £300k or for a 1 bed £200-£250k.


Many prefer / need a 2 bed house, so about £350k +. Some such as several E European couples I've known recently have gone straight to a 3 bed house, so £400k +


They aren't being anything other than rational, and the mortgages they take are affordable (CML repossession rate is tiny). All are aware of the KFIs which clearly show mortgage costs at higher future interest rates.


People have to make a judgement hinging around buying now vs later, buying within reasonable distance to work or further out but with higher transport costs etc etc. It's all very well preaching frugality but in reality people are often forced to take large mortgages.


None the less under a Labour borrowing binge with all the associated economic risks, retail mortgage rates could easily double and more which would certainly have a disastrous effect on the economy.

Thrugelmir

Tromking wrote: »

We digress, but the word 'bloated' is unduly emotive on your part IMO.

500,000 extra jobs resulted in a bloated workforce. Having been at the coal face I consider the word to be accurate in the context of what I've seen first hand. Can only benchmark against many many years in the private sector. There's has been significant change and improvement. Yet there's still much to that can be done.

Tromking

Thrugelmir wrote: »

500,000 extra jobs resulted in a bloated workforce. Having been at the coal face I consider the word to be accurate in the context of what I've seen first hand. Can only benchmark against many many years in the private sector. There's has been significant change and improvement. Yet there's still much to that can be done.

If by that you mean that Public Services can get a lot worse, then you're probably spot on.
It's not all about headcount of course, rationalisation can come in many forms. In my own sphere a sizeable drop in numbers was 'backed up' by a major detrimental readjustment in pay and conditions. Chaos inevitably has ensued.

Rinoa

He he. fascinating stuff from the EU.

Many countries are fighting to take over the financial regulator and drugs watchdog role, currently run by the UK.

There's so much unity in the EU that they're having to hold a secret ballot by members to see who gets what role. They don't want any punch ups if countries know who voted for who.

Presumably Juncker will eventually announce the winners X - factor style in some elaborate ceremony.


Link only headlines - rest behind paywall.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-wants-secret-ballot-on-post-brexit-location-of-european-agencies-1495637188