If we vote for Brexit what happens

angrypirate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Some who are planning to vote leave are in fact xenophobes and racists.

And that number is probably higher than you think...

And no doubt there will be a lot who are planning to vote leave who arent racist.

What is you're point anyway?

Wanting to have control of immigration is not racist. Wanting to control our own laws and regulation is not racist.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

I can't think of anyone who believes that.

From last weeks question time:

Jonathan Dimbleby: “Can you both agree on a matter of fact, what proportion of this market is in Europe and what proportion is outside?”
Anna Soubry: “44% of our exports which is £290 billion goes into the EU.”
Kate Hoey: “That has gone down by 10% in the last 8 years.”
Anna Soubry: “But Kate it will go down to almost absolutely zero if we come out of the EU.”

Anna Sourby is a government minister.

Generali

angrypirate wrote: »

In what sense? I was under the impression that they had a skills based points system with an English speaking requirement.

That's only for a 457 visa.

I'm on a 100 visa which I got from being married to an Aussie.

A lot of migrants come in on a Student visa which has working restrictions on it (from memory 21 hours a week but that could well be wrong). Those restrictions are widely flouted and if you are here for long enough on a student visa (four or five years?) you get temporary and then indefinite leave to remain which then means you can become a citizen in 4 years.

The list of skilled workers contains a lot of jobs that you wouldn't necessarily expect. The current list includes lots of the migrants that Brits tend to object to: brickies, plumbers, car mechanics, sparkies and pre-school workers. Usually the list contains hairdressers and beauticians.

The sponsored list is even longer:

http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Work/Work/Skills-assessment-and-assessing-authorities/skilled-occupations-lists/CSOL

Running a B&B, managing a pub, being a recruitment consultant, acting and even a general gardener get you into Aus.

kabayiri

Rinoa wrote: »

...
Anna Sourby is a government minister.

Being a government minister does not necessarily mean you are good at extrapolating !

At her current rate of progress, I reckon Anna will be making 1 gaff on telly every month by 2018.

Hey, this poor use of trend is easy

bugslet

Generali wrote: »

But you can't just have a free market for everyone else and have your own industry featherbedded.

If you want to benefit from being able to buy your groceries from a bunch of stores that are competing on price, quality and service; be able to take advantage of the huge breakthroughs in technology; be able to live a longer, healthier life that has resulted from Big Pharma's immense leaps forward in products then you also have to live with competition in your own industry.

Isn't that a global argument rather than a pro EU argument?

And again, I get that, I was explaining why some people will vote for out. Because they earn less than they did 10 years ago. Because they believe the more people there are chasing a job, the more the rate comes down. What you do is a million miles away from the low paid people and most of them are not going to think like you.

And again, it bothers me not personally, a) because I've made my money, or enough to last my life if need be now, b) my particular sector is well ring-fenced from foreign competition and if anything is likely to restrict other nationalities further.

mwpt wrote: »

Yes fair points bugslet and I can understand why that would convince someone to vote 'out'.

Just an example though about my answer, I speak from personal experience. I work in a fairly niche field, I built up a lot of experience over the years but it is in an industry where jobs are easily offshored as other countries skill up. Wary about this, I preempted it by resigning last year and am trying a new 'thing'. I'm still unsure if I've done the right thing, so may just end up back in my previous type of role. But the point is, immigration or no immigration, my type of role could be at risk (though the best will survive).

Good luck with that mwpt, I suspect that you will be successful whatever you do.

As a long term thing, I think we are entering a period of upheaval in the jobs market wether we are in the EU or not and those with less skills are not going to fare well.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Apart from high house prices in London, what is the problem with immigration?

According to the stats I saw, EU nationals who come here are a net positive for the economy and tax receipts. In other words, we can build and improve services more to cater for the increased population, and then some.

The UK has high immigration and has the best economic growth in the EU.

Currently it is so, that the EU is being held back by the very poor leadership. Curiously a leadership you want to have more control over the successful UK economy.

The issue is not high house prices but poor housing conditions. The housing for young people in London is worse now that 30 years ago. For 'normal ' employed people in London it is very difficult to live in a family sized home, in many cases limiting their choice of starting a family.
Why ever are we pursuing policies that makes the people of the UK worse off?

The EU people who come here do make certain contributions to the economy :
:they hold wages down
:they reduce incentives to improve productivity of UK industry
Why is this a benefit to the people of the UK?

They do make a contribution to tax revenues : however there is a huge unfunded back log of costly infrastructure that needs to be funded, not for any improvement over say 20 years ago but simply to get back to those standards of yester year to cater for the increase in population.
You're suggesting a large hike in tax levels to pay for this necessary infrastructure.
So there contribution to the tax revenues is because the massive costs of infrastructure and NOT included.
So, instead we have declining housing standards, worse transport over crowding, worse traffic congestion, worse access to health care.

Why is that a benefit ?
GDP goes up, qualify of life goes down.

There will come the day when the wall of foreign money that pays for our massive deficit in trade dries up.
I know it's not fashionable to discuss the huge deficit in the balance of trade but our current consumption is being funded by selling our industry and foreign borrowing : not in my view a healthy situation.

Basically, I see no benefits in continuous population growth and lots of disadvantages to the people of the UK.

Generali

bugslet wrote: »

Isn't that a global argument rather than a pro EU argument?

I'd argue it's both.

bugslet wrote: »

And again, I get that, I was explaining why some people will vote for out. Because they earn less than they did 10 years ago. Because they believe the more people there are chasing a job, the more the rate comes down. What you do is a million miles away from the low paid people and most of them are not going to think like you.

I am now working in a pretty rarefied place but I've done my time in bars, shops and on building sites. I'm not someone born with a silver spoon in my mouth.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

From last weeks question time:

Anna Sourby is a government minister.

Even the most ardent remain campaigner isn't making the case that trade with the EU will cease after brexit.
So yes, Anna had a bit of a dim moment there.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

That's only for a 457 visa.

I'm on a 100 visa which I got from being married to an Aussie.

A lot of migrants come in on a Student visa which has working restrictions on it (from memory 21 hours a week but that could well be wrong). Those restrictions are widely flouted and if you are here for long enough on a student visa (four or five years?) you get temporary and then indefinite leave to remain which then means you can become a citizen in 4 years.

The list of skilled workers contains a lot of jobs that you wouldn't necessarily expect. The current list includes lots of the migrants that Brits tend to object to: brickies, plumbers, car mechanics, sparkies and pre-school workers. Usually the list contains hairdressers and beauticians.

The sponsored list is even longer:

http://www.border.gov.au/Trav/Work/Work/Skills-assessment-and-assessing-authorities/skilled-occupations-lists/CSOL

Running a B&B, managing a pub, being a recruitment consultant, acting and even a general gardener get you into Aus.

there seems to be reports in the newspapers about Australia holding people off shore
Is this all rubbish then and actually there is de facto unrestricted immigration to Aus.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

there seems to be reports in the newspapers about Australia holding people off shore
Is this all rubbish then and actually there is de facto unrestricted immigration to Aus.

No. People who try to come to Australia by illegal means are processed offshore, mostly in Nairu.

However migrating legally to Australia is pretty trivial.