If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

davomcdave wrote: »

Nor repay yourself for 3-5 years of income forgone.

At some point people will realise that immigration and the EU have been falsely conflated. Look at immigration numbers for Canada, NZ and Australia for example:

- Canada: 2016 net migration was +342,000 or a little under 1% of Canada's population
- Australia: 2016 net migration was 193,000 or 0.8%
- NZ: 2016 net migration 70,000 or 1.6%
- UK: 2016 net migration was 273,000 or less than 0.5%

It would appear that the EU isn't causing your 'problem' with immigration. The things that Australia, NZ, the UK and Canada share is that they are prosperous economies that speak English. Maybe people just like having the Queen as Head of State.

People seek to migrate to successful countries to do the jobs that locals can't or won't do. Australia has recently announced that it is going to end its current migrant worker visa to replace it with an even more stupid scheme. Who picks the fruit in Australia?

1. Backpackers who get a tax break plus extra time on their visas for working on farms.
2, Poor people from Asia who come in for a few months at a time to earn more than they can in their home country.

It sure as hell isn't Australians. They're not going to stand in the baking sun for hours picking strawberries when they can work far less and earn far more indoors.

Remember that when polled people seemed to think immigration was about 7x* higher than it really was, so the issue is more with the impression of immigration and the impression of immigration from the EU, rather than real issues. Why do they think immigration is such a big thing? The right wing media?

(I think this was in terms of total migrant population, rather than annually).

Herzlos

Jason74 wrote: »

Agree with all of this. Much as the EU rhetoric says otherwise, I am sure that there was (and possibly still is) a deal to be done whereby we stayed in the single market and accepted FoM, but with the proviso that EU migrants would have no recourse to public funds apart from the NHS and Schools (and even those only after X period of contributions).

I was under the impression we already had the ability to do that.

wotsthat

mayonnaise wrote: »

The credit fueled consumer spending spree that has driven the so called 'brexit boom' is well and truly over.

I'd be concerned if I was a car manufacturer. They've been particularly helped by people taking on debt to buy new cars.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/14/drivers-face-car-loan-crackdown-avoid-new-financial-crisis/

Nine in ten new car sales are now financed by "personal contract plans" which can enable people on low incomes and poor credit histories to afford brand new top-of-the range cars.

The Telegraph has seen figures indicating that households with "stressed" incomes are a major force behind the rises, with a 54 per cent increase in applications since 2014.

Last night MPs warned that car loans could lead to the next "sub-prime" financial collapse after the housing market crash.

I know quite a few young people who are mad for PCP and, whilst the next sub-prime waiting to happen is over-egging it, I fear they're inadvertently impoverishing themselves.

If the BoE feel the need to tighten lending controls there's scope for transactions to fall dramatically.

mrginge

wotsthat wrote: »

I condemned not a single person. I gave an honest answer to what I thought was an honest question.

I now realise it was a launchpad for your trip to the moral highground.

You should try it sometimes. It's quite refreshing.

BobQ

kabayiri wrote: »

When recent government policy from both sides has been to push more and more of our young down the higher education route, it should not be surprising that they set their sights on higher quality jobs.

You're not going to pay 60 grand of student debt off by working in a coffee shop.

All true but the majority of people still do not go to university. That said, I agree people go to university and expect high paid jobs even though some gain lo quality degrees that are nothing like the standards of the past.

Perhaps we have got it wrong in encouraging so many people to go to university rather than ensuring employers and government work together to train a workforce with the skills we are likely to need.

mrginge

BobQ wrote: »

Perhaps we have got it wrong in encouraging so many people to go to university rather than ensuring employers and government work together to train a workforce with the skills we are likely to need.

No !!!! Sherlock.

hildosaver

Being from Northern Ireland I have a lot to be concerned about re: Brexit. The almost certain decimation of our main industry in the country (farming), at the very least there will be continued political instability, a real possibility of a hard border and the likely destruction of the concept and existance of 'Northern Ireland' in the next decade.


Thanks Brexit!

davomcdave

Herzlos wrote: »

Remember that when polled people seemed to think immigration was about 7x* higher than it really was, so the issue is more with the impression of immigration and the impression of immigration from the EU, rather than real issues. Why do they think immigration is such a big thing? The right wing media?

(I think this was in terms of total migrant population, rather than annually).

Immigrants are visible in the community: they speak a different language, eat different foods and worship a different God or maybe the same one in a different way.

It is interesting, to me at least, that the areas with the largest population of immigrants voted least for Brexit.

I don't think the media got this up and I think people have genuine, if misdirected, concerns. The fundamental problem isn't poverty as there isn't really a huge amount of poverty in the UK in absolute terms. The problem isn't unemployment as unemployment is low and employment very high, the highest ever in fact. So what is the problem?

Honestly I think that a large part of it is that we have our noses rubbed in it about how the rich live in a way we never have before. People earning two or three times more than the average income feel poor so goodness knows how those on half the average salary feel. I think that the 'poor' (I include those on far higher incomes than me) have been sold the idea that if they can only boot out the Poles then they can buy the stuff they see on Instagram and in the papers.

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

It is interesting, to me at least, that the areas with the largest population of immigrants voted least for Brexit.

Isn't that exactly what we'd expect to be the case?

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

Isn't that exactly what we'd expect to be the case?

Why..................?

Oh do you mean because immigrants wouldn't vote for Brexit? Actually there's a venerable tradition of immigrants wanting to pull the ladder up after them. Don't assume that because someone is an immigrant they're in favour of immigration.