If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

That traders feel that the £ is worth less whenever May speaks strikes me as a lack of confidence in the UK.

Tomorrow it may rise or indeed fall again. Speculators trade to make money. Nothing else. Happens every working day. Nothing new so a mute point.

Matt_L

Lmfao all these remoaners looking for the tiniest of glitches to blame on the vote to leave the EU. Its saddening that they hope and pray every day for some micron of doom just so they can say, "told ya so". Its pathetic. The migrating birds are now spending less time in the Uk due to our vote to leave !!!!!!..

The sooner we're out the better....

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I see today that Le Pen is "upping the ante" and trying trump-like tactics:

http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-follows-trumps-lead-vows-to-bring-car-industry-back-to-france/


Meanwhile Tony Abbot (the ex-Australian PM) gives what would appear to be very good reasons why the UK should leave the EU customs union:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/10/former-australian-pm-tony-abbott-says-uk-should-leave-eu-customs/

I thought it was alarmist to claim that Britain would end up as a third world country if we voted Brexit!

The_Last_Username

mayonnaise wrote: »

The Commonwealth.

Apart from the UK, only 3 countries in the Commonwealth with any economical clout. Canada, Australia and India.

Exports to these 3 combined (2010 figures) were smaller than our exports to.....Belgium.

Combined with a -probably - increasingly protectionist USA, that's going to be some axis. :rotfl:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

Bangladesh: #33 in world economy rankings by the IMF and growing.
Malaysia: #27
South Africa: #30
Nigeria: #21

So are you still sure you want to claim that only four commonwealth countries have what you call "economic clout"?

And why is it that exports were so low - anything to do with EU trade rules by any chance?
Though I note you didn't mention the USA which was our largest single country for exports in 2011.

From what is emerging from the USA and protectionist though they may become, even without the USA as a trade partner (which is much more unlikely that the continuation of the EU in its current form IMHO) the combined population of the commonwealth is almost a third of the entire planet's population.

common values and goals include the promotion of democracy, human rights, good governance, the rule of law, individual liberty, egalitarianism, free trade, multilateralism, and world peace which are carried out through multilateral projects and meetings which include the Commonwealth Games held once every four years.

From Wiki.
Note especially "free trade".
Also note "No one government in the Commonwealth exercises power over the others as is the case in a political union".


No, I'm not suggesting it will happen.
To dismiss the possibility or to suggest that it could not be extremely important in terms of world trade though is delusional.

Conrad

Gina Miller is on LBC being grilled by callers


Unmissable


I note she never mentions democracy being handed away to Brussels

vivatifosi

Conrad wrote: »

I forsee an Anglo-sphere trading axis, comprising the can-do grown-up, like minded nations of the USA, Australia, NZ, Canada and ourselves, featuring rapid simple trade deals and co-operation.


This could expand to Singapore et al


The tired old lumbering Brussels rule making machine can carry on limping along

I can see something like this happening too. If not Anglo-sphere, then certainly more even in terms of GDP per capita. If you look at Trump's view on the Pacific trade area, he has met with Japan with a view to trade there, but is not so keen on the lower waged countries. Similarly, he doesn't object to Canada in the same way as he does to Mexico.

Therefore it is not beyond the realms of possibility that you end up with a trading bloc containing (not necessarily limited to) the likes of: USA, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan, Singapore; possibly with countries that would then be left as outliers, such as S Korea and Taiwan.

There is some logic in this beyond the Trump links. First the UK looked at joining NAFTA in the 1990s, second of course the links to the Commonwealth. Third as you say, English as a common language and trading culture in much of the block. The legal codification in many of these countries is British in origin as opposed to the Napoleonic code too. There is also more of a free-market outlook in many.

padington

vivatifosi wrote: »

I can see something like this happening too. If not Anglo-sphere, then certainly more even in terms of GDP per capita. If you look at Trump's view on the Pacific trade area, he has met with Japan with a view to trade there, but is not so keen on the lower waged countries. Similarly, he doesn't object to Canada in the same way as he does to Mexico.

Therefore it is not beyond the realms of possibility that you end up with a trading bloc containing (not necessarily limited to) the likes of: USA, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan, Singapore; possibly with countries that would then be left as outliers, such as S Korea and Taiwan.

There is some logic in this beyond the Trump links. First the UK looked at joining NAFTA in the 1990s, second of course the links to the Commonwealth. Third as you say, English as a common language and trading culture in much of the block. The legal codification in many of these countries is British in origin as opposed to the Napoleonic code too. There is also more of a free-market outlook in many.

I would imagine it's exactly what the queen wants too and last requests by that lady might be worth something , I can see a common - wealth forming. The west uniting for one last .... Crusade ?

Could work well for a while because things that relate well to each other tend to work best and these countries fit like a glove.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

I can see something like this happening too. If not Anglo-sphere, then certainly more even in terms of GDP per capita. If you look at Trump's view on the Pacific trade area, he has met with Japan with a view to trade there, but is not so keen on the lower waged countries. Similarly, he doesn't object to Canada in the same way as he does to Mexico.

Therefore it is not beyond the realms of possibility that you end up with a trading bloc containing (not necessarily limited to) the likes of: USA, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan, Singapore; possibly with countries that would then be left as outliers, such as S Korea and Taiwan.

There is some logic in this beyond the Trump links. First the UK looked at joining NAFTA in the 1990s, second of course the links to the Commonwealth. Third as you say, English as a common language and trading culture in much of the block. The legal codification in many of these countries is British in origin as opposed to the Napoleonic code too. There is also more of a free-market outlook in many.

Such a bloc would certainly be something of a wet dream for the British as this is what most people, pro- or anti-Brexit, wanted the EU to be.

The problem is do those other countries want to join with Britain? Maybe a Trump US would but you can bet you trade with a Trump US under their terms not yours, that would not be a meeting of equals.

Australia, Canada and NZ? That's a different matter. Memories are still raw of the gigantic kick in the nuts that the British gave to the Commonwealth on joining the EU so don't be so sure that they'd be interested in a particularly close relationship. A bit of freer trade maybe especially involving agricultural products but they are not about to drop everything and hitch their wagons to the British oxen.

You would be surprised how wedded people are, to protectionism. Despite the car industry being just about to close down for good in Australia people don't want to adopt European or Japanese standards to reduce car prices to protect local car dealerships! They are also very funny about agricultural imports to protect local agriculture (just ask New Zealand apple growers). Canadians are very sensitive to media imports in particular. New Zealand has a great history of protectionism although seems to have rowed back on it more recently.

Singapore loves free trade. It has a population slightly higher than Yorkshire's and less than 1% of the EU's excluding the UK.

There are lots of good ideas floating about but there aren't any silver bullets.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

Gina Miller is on LBC being grilled by callers


Unmissable

Oh, I missed it.

Gina Miller is the woman behind the Brexit legal challenge and Colin called in to criticise her for doing that - because "she's not British". Only one problem with that...she is.

But tonight Colin told her: "The country voted for Brexit, that means that we come out.

"A lot of people voted for Brexit, because of people like Gina who sadly...a lot of people are thinking: 'Hang on a minute, she wasn't even born in this country."

Gina's response was calm but very effective: "I was actually born British because I was born in British Guyana. It became independent after my birth so I was born British.

"I've been in the UK now for over 41 years.

"I am British, I have a British passport, my children are British, my husband is British, I have every right to bring an action as a British citizen."

Colin still insisted that lots of people would have a problem with Gina bringing the case "because she wasn't born in this country" and this time it was Clive's turn to put Colin on the spot.

"Would it count if was the Falklands?":rotfl:

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/clive-bull/leave-voter-gina-miller-brexit-not-british-react/

Typical Leave voter. Utterly bigoted and dumb as a brick.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

Typical Leave voter. Utterly bigoted and dumb as a brick.

oh dear........