If we vote for Brexit what happens

antrobus

DavidJonas wrote: »

...Canada, eh?

Canada has a 241% tariff on imported Milk above quota. Obviously, the UK currently has no agreed quota.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/tariffs-are-the-hidden-hand-behind-us-canada-price-gap/article8412498/

.

You are quoting a three year article about US-Canada trade.

The provisions of CETA would be more relevant.

Rinoa

Excellent article on the EU-Canada trade deal just concluded.

Basically Canada will have access to the EU Single Market and 99% of non agricultural tariffs will be removed. But Canada will not pay any market access fee, no membership fees, not have to enact the legal 'acquis' of 700,000 pages, or sign up to freedom of movement of EU citizens. Canada will retain its impressive visa scheme, continue to seek the world for skilled people to ease its skills shortages.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/david-bannerman-mep/eu-referendum-brexit_b_9346348.html

[Deleted User]

cells wrote: »

what happens to the many EU citizens that are already here if the vote is to leave the EU?

cells wrote: »

Main questions I would want to know would be

If we vote out what happens to the millions of EU families now in the UK and English families in Europe. A lot of them have been here for years a lot of them have had kids here and a lot of them are for all intents settled. Do they get deported if so how will that work and happen or do they get some sort of visa or citizenship?

If we vote out. Will there still be free movement within the EU and UK (this doesn't look likely as a lot of the no votes are not voting about Europe but immigration) what about free movement with their 'tier 1' EU countries and the UK eg Germany France Italy and keep the poorer east Europeans at bay?

I'm not so concerned about the trade arguments we would be OK either way. I am likely to vote stay if for no other reason than it being quite !!!! to expelled families that have been here for years and divided to make the move with the laws and systems in place not expecting to be expelled. I would be a lot more likely to consider a leave vote if it was cleared up what would happen to then and whatever that was was reasonably fair.

A EU citizen who has exercised treaty rights for 5 years will be considered a permanent resident, hence not subject to immigration control, even if the host country should leave the Union.

This is worth for any EU citizen residing in any other EU country.

This is what the law says. What will happen in practice, who knows?

Generali

More Brexit analysis. Macroman has done a very good piece:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/the-vexing-question-of-brexit.html

As an aid to understanding, 'vol' is short for 'volatility'. Being short vol is taking a position (bet if you prefer) that volatility in asset values will remain low.

Here is another piece, this time by a business analysis firm:

http://www.global-counsel.co.uk/system/files/publications/Global_Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit_June_2015.pdf

Both well worth a read (MM always is).

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

More Brexit analysis. Macroman has done a very good piece:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/the-vexing-question-of-brexit.html

As an aid to understanding, 'vol' is short for 'volatility'. Being short vol is taking a position (bet if you prefer) that volatility in asset values will remain low.

Here is another piece, this time by a business analysis firm:

http://www.global-counsel.co.uk/system/files/publications/Global_Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit_June_2015.pdf

Both well worth a read (MM always is).

both articles well worth a read
amusingly they both seem to suggest that one reason the UK should stay is that without the UK the EU would become even more illiberal and bureaucratic (my words) (trade wise that is).
I'm not personally sure whether that is really why we should stay.

Sapphire

DavidJonas wrote: »

The EU … is a group of rather socialist countries

Poland is most certainly not socialist, and neither are the other former communist bloc countries. Poland is highly unlikely to ever want to become socialist – though it has to date been bribed by the EU with generous benefits, roads, etc., courtesy of UK taxpayers. Sovereignty, however, is more important to Poles than anything else. They were under Ottoman occupation and only manage to extricate themselves and other European nations from that yoke with great difficulty. Ditto Germany, Russia and Austrio-Hungary for more than a hundred years in the 19th century, and German occupation followed by Russian communist colonialism in the Second World War and after it. All these occupations caused great suffering to the Poles, hence their attitudes of today (the current government is actually far right and run by stupid people, according to Poles I know well).

Now that Germany is starting its undemocratic activities again (courtesy the unelected, bullying Frau Merkel and bureaucrats like Juncker and their 'ever greater political union'), and that the next crisis will be the Euro (this will be serious, in my view), many countries, like Poland, will run for the exit.

I agree with the rest of your post.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

both articles well worth a read
amusingly they both seem to suggest that one reason the UK should stay is that without the UK the EU would become even more illiberal and bureaucratic (my words) (trade wise that is).
I'm not personally sure whether that is really why we should stay.

Given that the Brexit plan b appears to be that the UK leaves the EU but remains bound by most of its rules then it should at least be a consideration.

Plan a seems to be vote Brexit in order to stay in the EU slightly bizarrely.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Given that the Brexit plan b appears to be that the UK leaves the EU but remains bound by most of its rules then it should at least be a consideration.

Plan a seems to be vote Brexit in order to stay in the EU slightly bizarrely.

My plan is to leave and simply continue trading in goods and services

antrobus

DavidJonas wrote: »

The EU does not want free trade with the world. It doesn't have free trade with the world. It is a group of rather socialist countries that have erected a protectionist bloc around themselves to keep foreign trade out. They open up on preferential terms only. ...

And a group of "rather socialist countries" that wrote a commitment to capitalism into the Lisbon Treaty.:)

DavidJonas wrote: »

...If the EU wanted free trade with the world it would be pursuing it. It isn't....

Not heard of TTIP then?

michaels

CLAPTON wrote: »

My plan is to leave and simply continue trading in goods and services

Subject to whatever arbitrary rules they put in place...

...then again, stay in with our wonderful opt out to ever closer union* and see what difference that makes when the other 27 are enacting ever closer union and majority voting means that whilst we don't 'have' to follow suit but we can't actually trade or anything unless we do so....




*which I am sure will make it into a treaty in a meaningful manner just as soon as the vote to stay in has passed :rotfl: