If we vote for Brexit what happens

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

No one is saying ta da, we're saying French farmers will still want to sell UK Supermarkets masses of produce, albeit with a tariff, but given the currency movements, those exports to us are set to become less competitive, ours more competitive.

Do we have issues buying American products such as Google ad space or Ben & Jerrys ice cream, without a magical SM deal?
Are we unable to buy Japanese cars and TV's, Watches and Cameras without this magic SM deal?

I think you're confusing the benefits of Single Market with Embargo which no one suggested; it'll all go down to price and how much Britons will be happy to fork out for whatever really.

So not only the UK would have to pay a tariff on those French produces, the currency exchange will also make it more expensive. I suppose the UK could produce its own but ultimately is still reliant on imports. France on the other hand could always increase sale within the SM cause it's more advantageous especially to countries in the East that are becoming more prosperous.

What does the UK exports to the EU that cannot be produced by the EU internally?
What is the bargaining chip?

steampowered

The reality is that trade deals fall far short of the EU internal market.

I would refer you to http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_3.1.2.html which sets out the key points. Free trade deals only tackle point A on that list.

Trade deals are not the same thing as replacing what we have at the moment, so you shouldn't pretend they are. I suppose examples of this would be a Belgian law passed to require extensive bureaucracy before whisky could be sold as Scotch (designed to protect the local beer industry against competition from Scotland) and various inspection laws passed by France and Italy designed to protect local farming industries (by making it very difficult to import foreign meat, such as British beef). Older examples would be the EU striking down a French rule which kept imports of UK machinery locked up in French customs for months, effectively preventing imported machinery from reaching market. And of course countless examples of the EU stopping member states from subsiding domestic industries faced with overseas competition.

Trade deals tend to only capture tariffs but the real life situation is that laws and regulations are a much greater barrier to trade these days than tariffs. Once we are no longer in the EU, businesses will no longer have access to the ECJ and hence no way of stopping EU governments from passing laws or doing other things which protect their domestic industries from UK-based competition.

That is really just a fact that you accept when you come out of the EU legal system, which has free movement of goods rules which can be enforced by individual businesses through the European courts, and instead rely on an international treaty system which can't be legally enforced by individual businesses and is unlikely to go much beyond customs tariff. The consequence of regaining full sovereignty over our laws by leaving the EU is that other countries do so too when it comes to dealing with us in relation to all sorts of laws and regulations affecting trade.

Have a read of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_law#Goods.

CLAPTON

steampowered wrote: »

The reality is that trade deals fall far short of the EU internal market.

I would refer you to http://www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_3.1.2.html which sets out the key points. Free trade deals only tackle point A on that list.

Trade deals are not the same thing as replacing what we have at the moment, so you shouldn't pretend they are. I suppose examples of this would be a Belgian law passed to require extensive bureaucracy before whisky could be sold as Scotch (designed to protect the local beer industry against competition from Scotland) and various inspection laws passed by France and Italy designed to protect local farming industries (by making it very difficult to import foreign meat, such as British beef). Older examples would be the EU striking down a French rule which kept imports of UK machinery locked up in French customs for months, effectively preventing imported machinery from reaching market. And of course countless examples of the EU stopping member states from subsiding domestic industries faced with overseas competition.

Trade deals tend to only capture tariffs but the real life situation is that laws and regulations are a much greater barrier to trade these days than tariffs. Once we are no longer in the EU, businesses will no longer have access to the ECJ and hence no way of stopping EU governments from passing laws or doing other things which protect their domestic industries from UK-based competition.

That is really just a fact that you accept when you come out of the EU legal system, which has free movement of goods rules which can be enforced by individual businesses through the European courts, and instead rely on an international treaty system which can't be legally enforced by individual businesses and is unlikely to go much beyond customs tariff. The consequence of regaining full sovereignty over our laws by leaving the EU is that other countries do so too when it comes to dealing with us in relation to all sorts of laws and regulations affecting trade.

Have a read of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_law#Goods.

why would the EU want to punish their own citizens in this way?

Conrad

Moby wrote: »

Read this and you'll think differently:-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/11/no-10-plays-down-warning-of-66bn-annual-brexit-impact

There is clearly a battle going on within govmt and the treasury are fighting a rearguard. Just waiting for inflation to kick in...as it will!

Those Treasury reports resulted from faulty inputs such as assuming NO trade deal and severely hampered trade with EU, and no global deals. Nonsense.


Inflation - a while back you predicted the ills of deflation 'just around the corner', make up your mind.


We've had super low inflation, we could use a bit, and we all eat far too much and buy tons of plastic rubbish, most can cut out lots of imported rubbish from their lives and buy plenty of British food and products. Already noticing habits changing to favour local produce, win, win, cuts down on air miles and boosts our British suppliers.


Pant importers need to look to British made pants instead of Bangladeshi and ours will likely last longer anyway, plus you wont be supporting child labour, and win win


Embrace the change

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

So not only the UK would have to pay a tariff on those French produces, the currency exchange will also make it more expensive.


I suppose the UK could produce its own but ultimately is still reliant on imports.


France on the other hand could always increase sale within the SM cause it's more advantageous especially to countries in the East that are becoming more prosperous.

What does the UK exports to the EU that cannot be produced by the EU internally?
What is the bargaining chip?

Underlying all of this is exactly what I described 2 years ago; Impotence.


You imply the UK is inadequate, weak, immobile and produces nothing of importance, but the mighty French can just EASILY find new prosperous markets in Bulgaria & Slovakia, it was all so easy all along, who knew! If it is such a straightforward task to aquire new markets, why did France and club med endure grinding unemployment for years?


Anyone asking me 'what does the UK produce than cannot easily be replaced', is really displaying a high level of ignorance. .

Conrad

steampowered wrote: »

Trade deals are not the same thing as replacing what we have at the moment, so you shouldn't pretend they are. I suppose examples of this would be a Belgian law passed to require extensive bureaucracy before whisky could be sold as Scotch (designed to protect the local beer industry against competition from Scotland) and various inspection laws passed by France and Italy

.

Talk me through how Japan, China, USA , S Korea (Samsung, Kia etc) and the rest cope?


Remember 70% of our trade is under WTO rules.


Remember also that only 11% of UK business exports to EU.


Also SERVICES make up the bulk of our EU exports - these are tariff free anyway and can be exported under Mifid 2 rules, or just a little brass plate on a Dublin desk


Our currency makes us already 15% more competitive. Germans adore a bargain (they term it 'Scottishness')

posh*spice

Moby wrote: »

So we can live on British fruit then.....that's a consolation.....looks like we may have too soon!:rotfl: Seriously Conrad So we don't import food,

99% of the food I eat is British. If you only eat fresh food - not frozen or canned - you will almost certainly be eating British. I would recommend it. Lovely.

setmefree2

CLAPTON wrote: »

A powerful argument for the benefits (to both parties) of free trade.
Why therefore do you support the protectionist EU that doesn't want free trade with (say) Black African countries even though your argument show its in the interests of both the people of the EU and the people of Black Africa?
Again why would the EU elite damage the people of the EU by stopping this trade that benefits their own people because the UK wants to decide how much tax their should be on British female sanitory products?

I notice Merkel is in Africa.

African prosperity in Europe’s best interests: Merkel

Inaugurating new AU Peace and Security Council building, German chancellor stresses development can help starve terrorism

http://aa.com.tr/en/africa/african-prosperity-in-europe-s-best-interests-merkel/662790

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on a trip to Ethiopia, said she would make Africa a priority for Germany's G20 presidency next year and outlined plans for a conference in Berlin.
The German leader is on the last leg of a three day trip which has also included stops in Mali and Niger. She is seeking investment opportunities which she hopes will help drive economic growth and curb future migration to Europe.
Earlier Merkel told Ethiopia to open up its politics and ensure police do not use heavy-handed tactics against protesters, after more than a year of unrest that rights groups say has led to about 500 deaths.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-protests-merkel-africanunion-idUSKCN12B15Y

I did think of your posts.

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

Underlying all of this is exactly what I described 2 years ago; Impotence.

You imply the UK is inadequate, weak, immobile and produces nothing of importance, but the mighty French can just EASILY find new prosperous markets in Bulgaria & Slovakia, it was all so easy all along, who knew! If it is such a straightforward task to aquire new markets, why did France and others just endure massive unemployment for years?

Anyone asking me 'what does the UK produce than cannot easily be replaced', is really displaying a high level of ignorance. .

Not at all, though the UK is not a manufacturer as much anymore (and many other countries like the UK) and has a big service industry. So there will need to be massive transformation of the economy in a very short time for the UK to be the competitive manufacturer powerhouse again. Possibly all those graduates who keep increasing YoY will be delighted to just do that for the joy of sovereignty.

That's the unfortunate predicament though, the UK can become like Mexico or like Canada next to the USA, it all depends on they go about it.

setmefree2

Tourism booms in UK after post-referendum fall in pound

July saw record visits to Britain and tourists spending £2.5bn, helped by sterling at lowest level against dollar for 30 years

The UK has recorded its biggest-ever month for tourist visits after the referendum-related slump in the pound lured 3.8 million people to British shores in July.
In the highest month ever for inbound tourism, overseas visitors spent £2.5bn – 4% more than last year, according to new figures from the tourism agency VisitBritain.

Announcing the figures at the the launch of the agency’s 2015-16 annual review, VisitBritain said the July boost was continuing a long-term pattern of growth which in 2015 saw a record 36.1m inbound visits to Britain and triggered total spending of £22.1bn. July was also a record month for inbound visits from EU countries – the UK’s largest source of visitors – with 2.3m visits, 3% up on last year as European tourists took advantage of the pound’s decline against the euro in the wake of the referendum.

Domestic visitors attracted by affordable staycations also spent more in England last year than ever before, splashing out £19.6bn on overnight trips, up 8% on 2014. This was £97.2m more than the previous year, which tourism chiefs said was down to the success of initiatives such as a major VisitEngland marketing campaign.
Inbound tourism is worth more than £26bn to the UK economy. In August prime minister Theresa May launched a Tourism Action Plan to try to ensure that Britain remains a top destination for visitors.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/11/tourism-booms-in-uk-after-post-referendum-fall-in-pound