If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

The EU's starting position will be that the UK maintains FOM in exchange for access and an agreement will or won't be reached.

That Canada or South Korea don't have free movement with the EU really isn't relevant.

The EU needs free movement of fishing boats into our rich waters, what is your view of this bargaining chip? It's worth noting the press ran articles last week on how European boats are causing harm by fishing African waters, so how Spanish boats loosing out on UK fishing is going to help, is anyone's guess.



We are the only European nation spending 2% of GDP on military, as per the agreement NATO members signed up to.
If the EU wants to play hardball, what are the consequences if we withdraw some of our oversight and forces? Who's going to spend the money to make up the shortfall, for example Eastern border air patrols and extensive Royal Navy movements?

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

sadly we been seeing the opposite for the last few years : been selling off our businesses in exchange for higher consumption in the short term although of course will suffer later.

Seems creating businesses that become valuable assets is part of the British skill-set?

Maybe that higher consumption is for the long-term and you're wrong about your prediction of later suffering.

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

Again, we're already completely aligned and compliant, plus the EU is currently exporting 10 x more to us than Canada, so the 'it will take years' line is just a bedtime story.


BTW - assuming the EU decides to hamper it's own trade with WTO tariffs, what UK products / services would no longer be bought by them given our stuff is c15% cheaper due to currency movements?

The idea that we have the EU over a barrel due to our trade deficit with them seems to be a fantasy to me.

As a proportion of our economy EU trade is much more important to the UK than the relative size of UK trade is to the EU.

Plus you need unanimity within the EU to agree a trade deal anyway (which is what is holding up the Canada deal), most of the EU governments have shown little interest in giving us the sort of trade deal we seem to think should be on the table, I haven't heard anything from our current government to indicate that they think access to the single market is on the cards either..

If you're in the EU and want to get the best deal you can there would seem to me to be no hurry at all, far better to let the 2 year negotiation expire, see how severe the resulting slowdown in the UK economy is, and what the impact is on the UK government with the 2020 General election looming, and whether that brings a change in negotiating position.

Is that a sensible economic position from either the UK or EU? Not particularly, but as I already said I don't see economics being the primary driver in the negotiation from either side.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

The EU needs free movement of fishing boats into our rich waters, what is your view of this bargaining chip? It's worth noting the press ran articles last week on how European boats are causing harm by fishing African waters, so how Spanish boats loosing out on UK fishing is going to help, is anyone's guess.

We are the only European nation spending 2% of GDP on military, as per the agreement NATO members signed up to.
If the EU wants to play hardball, what are the consequences if we withdraw some of our oversight and forces? Who's going to spend the money to make up the shortfall, for example Eastern border air patrols and extensive Royal Navy movements?

The starting position of the EU is that an agreement will require freedom of movement. Do we have enough bargaining chips to persuade them otherwise? We'll have to wait and see.

As FOM is a red line for both sides it's obvious that for an agreement there will have to be concessions. Pragmatism would normally win the day but I fear political considerations will lead to sub-optimal outcomes for the citizens of both the UK and EU.

Conrad

Filo25 wrote: »

The idea that we have the EU over a barrel due to our trade deficit with them seems to be a fantasy to me.

As a proportion of our economy EU trade is much more important to the UK than the relative size of UK trade is to the EU.

You need to consider the core EU nations such as Germany that have huge numbers of people reliant on exporting to the UK. Germany makes a large net contribution to the EU coffers for the benefit of recipient nations, in who's interest would it be to hamper EU trade and money? Keep in mind we're already massively wiping out any tariff costs on US thanks to currency

always_sunny

Conrad wrote: »

Again, we're already completely aligned and compliant, plus the EU is currently exporting 10 x more to us than Canada, so the 'it will take years' line is just a bedtime story.

BTW - assuming the EU decides to hamper it's own trade with WTO tariffs, what UK products / services would no longer be bought by them given our stuff is c15% cheaper due to currency movements?

That is what is presumptuous from the UK. That ta-da, because everything is in place, things will somehow stay the same, minus of course, freedom of movement.

The reality however has been repeated many times from the continent that things will change and such privilege will go. Beside, as a market (the UK) disappear, other will open up for the EU.

Don't 'count your chickens before they hatch and don't underestimate sentiment from EU folks who the UK is slapping a door on their face and then telling them to do business.

Conrad

German cars roughly 15% more costly now due the pound. What impact will this have on the finance packages typically used to buy most cars now whereby a balloon is due in 36 months?


I don't believe this line Brits will happily pay more for BMW's now, there are excellent British motors coming through such as Jaguars (yawn, yes I know it's Indian owned)

Conrad

always_sunny wrote: »

That is what is presumptuous from the UK. That ta-da, because everything is in place, things will somehow stay the same, minus of course, freedom of movement.

The reality however has been repeated many times from the continent that things will change and such privilege will go. Beside, as a market (the UK) disappear, other will open up for the EU.

Don't 'count your chickens before they hatch and don't underestimate sentiment from EU folks who the UK is slapping a door on their face and then telling them to do business.

No one is saying ta da, we're saying French farmers will still want to sell UK Supermarkets masses of produce, albeit with a tariff, but given the currency movements, those exports to us are set to become less competitive, ours more competitive.


Do we have issues buying American products such as Google ad space or Ben & Jerrys ice cream, without a magical SM deal?
Are we unable to buy Japanese cars and TV's, Watches and Cameras without this magic SM deal?

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

I fear political considerations will lead to sub-optimal outcomes for the citizens of both the UK and EU.

Who stands to collect more in tariffs?

Moby

Conrad wrote: »

Daft reply, of course we cannot replace EVERYTHING we import, but none the less a more competitive pound is what manufacturers and supplies have been waiting for - and what we as a nation have been banging on about forever in view of our UNSUSTAINABLE trade deficit.


Are you unaware of the urgent need to rebalance the economy away from imports and debt? Did you think we could just go on forever living on the never, never, living on the kindness of strangers borrowing their money to pay for their goods?


You realise a falling pound also wipes out masses of national debt right?


Stop being cowed by fear of change, it really will be ok and one day you will wonder what on earth you we worried about


Reality isn't something fixed, it changes and those with a positive nature aren't put-off by challenges.


Just looking at the Independent - all the little terrified people want throw their hands up and run away from challenge and change, it really is quite unbeomming

Read this and you'll think differently:-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/11/no-10-plays-down-warning-of-66bn-annual-brexit-impact

There is clearly a battle going on within govmt and the treasury are fighting a rearguard. Just waiting for inflation to kick in...as it will!