The Aberdeen House Prices & Rents thread

westernpromise

Aberdeen was an oil boom town and it's over. Prices there will probably now converge on what they'd be elsewhere in Scotland, i.e. very little.

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

Malthusian

Much as prices in Bristol are the same as they are in Bridgwater or Taunton now the slave trade has stopped.

That's not to say I'd be surprised if Aberdeen went into permanent decline but it depends on Aberdeen.

MatteH

Time for a bump a few months on, things are still improving - some eye opening stat's in this report:

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=aberdeen&startmonth=11&startyear=2014&endmonth=11&endyear=2017

Crashy_Time

MatteH wrote: »

Time for a bump a few months on, things are still improving - some eye opening stat's in this report:

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?location=aberdeen&startmonth=11&startyear=2014&endmonth=11&endyear=2017

Crashy_Time

ilovehouses wrote: »

Flats in Edinburgh are up about 50% in the same time period.

You live somewhere like this which is up for £90k?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70020902.html

£45k asset valuation and c£16k for 3 years crash insurance & rent. Pretty expensive short so far and that's just since the end of 2014. Still claiming an edge over the market?

Got the link that shows that flat for sale at 45k in 2014? The mortgage is still more than my rent, and that is before the US go Hike a Go Go :rotfl: At least the good news is that we know how far it can drop in price You sound just like Hamish before the Aberdeen bubble went pop, and the average person in Aberdeen was well ahead of the average punter in Edinburgh for take home pay.

chucknorris

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes, the mortgage on a £90k flat may well be more than your mythical rent but it wouldn't have been in 2014 when your advice was to sell. I know you discount housing equity to zero for some reason but your none existent edge has had a negative effect on your cashflow too.

Even using the £90k, say at a 75% mortgage x £90k x say 4.5% mortgage = only £253/month mortgage interest. The capital repayment (if it was a repayment mortgage) can't be counted as an expense, because it is paying off his mortgage (so it is like an investment, not an expense). Even if you added a nominal return of 4.5% on the mortgage deposit (which the landlord is foregoing, it still only brings it up to £337/month.

Crashy_Time

ilovehouses wrote: »

Why do I need a link? If the Home data is good enough to prove Aberdeen house prices are falling then why isn't it good enough to show Edinburgh flat prices have doubled in the same time period?

Yes, the mortgage on a £90k flat may well be more than your mythical rent but it wouldn't have been in 2014 when your advice was to sell. I know you discount housing equity to zero for some reason but your none existent edge has had a negative effect on your cashflow too.

If they have doubled show me the Ferry road flat when it sold for 50% less.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Even using the £90k, say at a 75% mortgage x £90k x say 4.5% mortgage = only £253/month mortgage interest. The capital repayment (if it was a repayment mortgage) can't be counted as an expense, because it is paying off his mortgage (so it is like an investment, not an expense). Even if you added a nominal return of 4.5% on the mortgage deposit (which the landlord is foregoing, it still only brings it up to £337/month.

The original point was about how sellers seem to behave when it becomes apparent that their local bubble has popped, the Aberdeen (asking price) example seems to show that they desperately chase the market down (Edinburgh and London take note)

GreatApe

ilovehouses wrote: »

That's not how it works though is it? They don't sell, volumes fall and the HPC crew start threads about deluded sellers.

The point about mortgages showed that you were wrong. Because you discount housing equity to zero you think a mortgage payment would be more than your rent. The opposite is true - your housing short costs you money every month which is why you need a bigger crash each month to breakeven.

The biggest problem for the crash cheerleaders is that they think any other point but the very bottom of a cycle is bad value. It is like if you try to time the very bottom of a stock price and miss it and then think the stock is overpriced at every other point. Well if you do that you will never buy because you can not time the exact bottom

I have said to the crash cheerleaders half a dozen times from 2010 onward its a good time to buy and got kicked off their site each time. The reasons I called it a good time to buy was that in most the country houses are fundamentally undervalued

If reinstatement value is more than the price then fantastic you are buying dollars for cents
If the mortgage payment is lower than even social rents then fantastic you are buying dollars for cents.

But no, that does not matter, homes were at some point in the past cheaper than they are today so obviously today is a bubble :rotfl:

All that has done is see prices run away further and further from them and that makes people bitter and hate the system because you know its everyone else that is deluded not their handful of people on a confirmation bias website.

If any crash cheerleaders are reading this, some areas are clearly good value today. For instance in Birmingham you can buy a 3 bedroom house for £120,000 that is very good value you could not build a new 3 bedroom house for that and the mortgage interest portion is lower than social rents. Don't listen to the other crash cheerleaders and see that a lot of the country is good value.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

The biggest problem for the crash cheerleaders is that they think any other point but the very bottom of a cycle is bad value. It is like if you try to time the very bottom of a stock price and miss it and then think the stock is overpriced at every other point. Well if you do that you will never buy because you can not time the exact bottom

I have said to the crash cheerleaders half a dozen times from 2010 onward its a good time to buy and got kicked off their site each time. The reasons I called it a good time to buy was that in most the country houses are fundamentally undervalued

If reinstatement value is more than the price then fantastic you are buying dollars for cents
If the mortgage payment is lower than even social rents then fantastic you are buying dollars for cents.

But no, that does not matter, homes were at some point in the past cheaper than they are today so obviously today is a bubble :rotfl:

All that has done is see prices run away further and further from them and that makes people bitter and hate the system because you know its everyone else that is deluded not their handful of people on a confirmation bias website.

If any crash cheerleaders are reading this, some areas are clearly good value today. For instance in Birmingham you can buy a 3 bedroom house for £120,000 that is very good value you could not build a new 3 bedroom house for that and the mortgage interest portion is lower than social rents. Don't listen to the other crash cheerleaders and see that a lot of the country is good value.

Who wants to live in Birmingham?