Current market carnage - anyone selling or buying?

Glen_Clark

gadgetmind wrote: »

I'd no more trust a bank to give investment advice than I'd trust a crocodile to recommend a safe place to swim. .

Good analogy that - they may know the waters better than us but that doesn't mean we can take their advice.
On my walk this morning I remembered the last time I heard so many of them telling us to avoid equities. It was back in 2009 when the FTSE100 dipped below 4,000 (and they had run their own businesses to the point where they needed a taxpayer bailout)

Rollinghome

ChesterDog wrote: »

To restore some normality...

Furthermore, the portfolio is still up 4.9% on the year to date, and showing annualised growth of 13.8% over five years..

From the back of my envelope, at 13.8 per annum compounded over 5 years you'd be up 91% whereas the poor old FTSE100 is down over 3% for the same period to give a 5 year TR of just 18%.

So pat yourself on the back and where can I buy your book?

masonic

Rollinghome wrote: »

From the back of my envelope, at 13.8 per annum compounded over 5 years you'd be up 91% whereas the poor old FTSE100 is down over 3% for the same period to give a 5 year TR of just 18%.

So pat yourself on the back and where can I buy your book?

The S&P500 returned 77% over the past 5 years (12% annualised), so I guess ChesterDog, like most of us, cast his net a little wider than the FTSE100.

Rollinghome

masonic wrote: »

The S&P500 returned 77% over the past 5 years (12% annualised), so I guess ChesterDog, like most of us, cast his net a little wider than the FTSE100.

It did but 91% was still pretty good going and puts the average Global Equity UT to shame with a 5 year return of 25%. Only 4 out of 200 in the sector did better than 80% and three of those were specialist healthcare/pharma funds. Vanguard LS 100% equity with some UK bias returned 35% over four and a half years and well out-performed the sector..

91% overall I'm sure was a lot better than me (though I haven't checked) despite a useful contribution from a very large holding in Dr Pepper giving a return of 170% (about 270% over the 8 years I've held it) and a few others. Goes to show it helps to be in the right place. How was your luck?

Voyager2002

Rollinghome wrote: »

Goes to show it helps to be in the right place. How was your luck?

Not good so far... I was heavily invested in Brazil (where my investment lost more than half its value in a few months) and Latin America (similar story); not to mention some significant holdings in Russia and the Far East. I even had one Mutual Fund in the USA that somehow managed to lose 35 per cent of the initial investment over the last five years: it must have taken genius to lose that much in such a rising market!

Anyway, you might want to know what I am doing so that you can do something different! I have taken advantage of the weak pound to buy into a couple of UK Investment Trusts, focusing on small businesses and on the UK consumer; and I have bought the ETF that invests in large companies in the Automobile sector, CARZ. I am considering increasing my stake in India, again via a US-quoted Investment Trust, since that is the only one of my investments that seems to ooze cash at the drop of a hat.

gadgetmind

Voyager2002 wrote: »

I even had one Mutual Fund in the USA that somehow managed to lose 35 per cent of the initial investment over the last five years: it must have taken genius to lose that much in such a rising market!

Well, you can't accuse that active manager of being a closet tracker! Care to name and shame?

Of course, fees will still have rolled in and yacht will getting upgrade as usual.

Rollinghome

Voyager2002 wrote: »

Not good so far... I was heavily invested in Brazil (where my investment lost more than half its value in a few months) and Latin America (similar story); not to mention some significant holdings in Russia and the Far East. I even had one Mutual Fund in the USA that somehow managed to lose 35 per cent of the initial investment over the last five years: it must have taken genius to lose that much in such a rising market!

Anyway, you might want to know what I am doing so that you can do something different! I have taken advantage of the weak pound to buy into a couple of UK Investment Trusts, focusing on small businesses and on the UK consumer; and I have bought the ETF that invests in large companies in the Automobile sector, CARZ. I am considering increasing my stake in India, again via a US-quoted Investment Trust, since that is the only one of my investments that seems to ooze cash at the drop of a hat.

Sounds if you're adventurous enough so you deserve to do well if you get it right. I tend to be a bit warier of investing in anything that can't be reached by bus or tube.

In my dotage I'm more interested in conservation than growth and in getting a good night's sleep.

I've also been fairly wary of ITs of late on the thinking that with narrow discounts and premiums and a fair bit of leverage they could be uncomfortable if retail investors take fright at the RBS-style warnings.

Still, I've had a large wodge sitting around since the summer that needs to go somewhere so if someone could wake me when we reach bottom I'd be grateful.

Sapphire

Just curious: what do all you investors in shares think the serious wars Middle East, which appear to be dragging in much of the world – Europe, the US, Russia, China, Africa and so on – with perhaps unpredictable results, will have on stock markets. Do you feel that it depends on how severely the countries that have been dragged in will be affected (in terms of invasions/repelling them, civil unrest, going to war and so on)? It might sound like a stupid question (and perhaps it is), but it would be good to know what people think about the effects on economies/stock markets.

gadgetmind

Rollinghome wrote: »

if someone could wake me when we reach bottom I'd be grateful.

I could throw my crystal ball at you? Would that do it?

Assuming the diggers and oil companies don't do anything stupid to their balance sheets (like try to maintain dividends!) then they should easily come through the other side. If you ignore short term wobbles, demand is still rising, and lots of production has been cancelled, postponed, or mothballed, so the commodities rebound could be fast and high.

Beyond these sectors, it's all just FUD, so the wall of worry will take a while to climb, but it will happen.

Same old same old, rebalance and chill.

Linton

Sapphire wrote: »

Just curious: what do all you investors in shares think the serious wars Middle East, which appear to be dragging in much of the world – Europe, the US, Russia, China, Africa and so on – with perhaps unpredictable results, will have on stock markets. Do you feel that it depends on how severely the countries that have been dragged in will be affected (in terms of invasions/repelling them, civil unrest, going to war and so on)? It might sound like a stupid question (and perhaps it is), but it would be good to know what people think about the effects on economies/stock markets.

Probably just lead to greater volatility for sensibly balanced portfolios. If it leads to a great deal more than this with some sort of "collapse of the world as we know it" scenario the value of our portfolios could be the least of our problems. But under those circumstances no investment would give much protection, possibly neither would cash.

Personally I am more concerned about Brexit as I can change my investment allocation to reduce any ill effects.