HPC thread of the week

lisyloo

No axe to grind, I'm not wedded to any posistion, but just thought these were interesting

Stocks show signs of UK housing market slowdown
Michael Hunter
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50499a04-7890-11e5-a95a-27d368e1dd...

Shares with exposure to the UK housing market were under pressure on Thursday, after two big building products suppliers and an estate agent pointed to signs of a slowdown in demand. ...


THE TELEGRAPH

Fears over housing sector as Travis Perkins warns of slowing demand for building supplies
Builders' merchant Travis Perkins reveals slowdown in trade as peer SIG issues profit warning
By Alan Tovey, Industry Editor
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/construction...


THIS IS MONEY

Housing market fears sends shares across the industry plummeting
By HUGO DUNCAN FOR THE DAILY MAIL
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3285081/H...

Foxtons warns of sluggish London prime housing market as higher stamp duty and rising prices hit rich buyers
By CAMILLA CANOCCHI FOR THISISMONEY.CO.UK
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3284641/U...


THE GUARDIAN

Foxtons and Travis Perkins shares fall amid housing market fears
Stock market reacts after companies say residential property sector is proving sluggish and will take time to recover
Ian Griffiths
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/22/foxtons-trav...

Jason74

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Trying to convince yourself?

Not at all. Indeed, a quick look through my posting history (not that I'd expect anyone to do that, we all surely have better things to do!) would show that I'm consistently of the view that high and rising house prices are a significant problem. Indeed, in my part of the world (south east London suburbs) I'd welcome a major crash, even while being aware of the significant downside to this. Prices have just got so insane that even with the problems, a crash is the least worst option imho. As for how it would impact me, well as someone who owns their home outright and has no plans to leave the area, there's no downside for me if property prices fell.

So no, I'm certainly not trying to "convince myself". It's simply that muchas prices are mad, I don't see the conditions that would bring about a significant fall. I think we're near the top, and lisyloo's links give a good summary of evidence to support this. But I thought that about this time last year and was proved wrong. It just amuses me that Crashy talks about people being afraid of a crash in an environment where that outcome currently looks very unlikely.

lisyloo

I don't see the conditions that would bring about a significant fall

If we think about mathematics and take the view that people always borrow the maximum they can, then we should reach a plateau if lending policy stays stable or small rises in line with wages.

But if we look at it from a psycological point of view what tends to happen is that if confidence deserts the markets then buyers stay away because no-one wants to try catching a falling knife and then forced sellers or those who lose their nerve (or perhaps the smart ones getting out at the top) take a haircut.
Is there any reason to think the fear/greed cycle will be any different this time?

Will politicians/BOE be able to rig the market indefinitely? or will there come a time when policitically price falls are the lesser of the evils?

Thrugelmir

Jason74 wrote: »

Not at all. Indeed, a quick look through my posting history (not that I'd expect anyone to do that, we all surely have better things to do!) would show that I'm consistently of the view that high and rising house prices are a significant problem.

Your posting history is irrelevant. Hindsight has no value. There's considerable financial and economic weakness on a wide broad level. Suggests that a new phase of history is on the cards. How things will play out is unquantifiable . Throw a stone in a pond and watch the ripples spread out. In this interconnected world. Correlation isn't the only factor .

chucknorris

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Hindsight has no value.

Only for someone that never learns from their mistakes, and we all make them.

Crashy_Time

Jason74 wrote: »

Only one slight problem with that thought process of course, and that's that there is no sign of a crash.

BTL`ers in Aberdeen might disagree....


http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=8c1d13e1a2860392e41d3fdbe&id=bd9aec1261&e=9eda20bf2f


"We have seen an increase in time to let, double year to date (42days September 2015) and tenants enquiries have halved compared to this time last year."

Mistermeaner

I don't think housing will ever crash - number of movers may drop and av price may dip as a result of those sales that do go through being distressed but most likely thing is people just sit tight..... thus no major opportunity for opportunistic buyers.

padington

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Your posting history is irrelevant. Hindsight has no value. There's considerable financial and economic weakness on a wide broad level. Suggests that a new phase of history is on the cards. How things will play out is unquantifiable . Throw a stone in a pond and watch the ripples spread out. In this interconnected world. Correlation isn't the only factor .

You've been suggesting the same thing for five years and all that's happened is your calls have been wrong year on year out.

padington

lisyloo wrote: »

No axe to grind, I'm not wedded to any posistion, but just thought these were interesting

Stocks show signs of UK housing market slowdown
Michael Hunter
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50499a04-7890-11e5-a95a-27d368e1dd...

Shares with exposure to the UK housing market were under pressure on Thursday, after two big building products suppliers and an estate agent pointed to signs of a slowdown in demand. ...


THE TELEGRAPH

Fears over housing sector as Travis Perkins warns of slowing demand for building supplies
Builders' merchant Travis Perkins reveals slowdown in trade as peer SIG issues profit warning
By Alan Tovey, Industry Editor
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/construction...


THIS IS MONEY

Housing market fears sends shares across the industry plummeting
By HUGO DUNCAN FOR THE DAILY MAIL
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3285081/H...

Foxtons warns of sluggish London prime housing market as higher stamp duty and rising prices hit rich buyers
By CAMILLA CANOCCHI FOR THISISMONEY.CO.UK
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3284641/U...


THE GUARDIAN

Foxtons and Travis Perkins shares fall amid housing market fears
Stock market reacts after companies say residential property sector is proving sluggish and will take time to recover
Ian Griffiths
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/22/foxtons-trav...

Read between the lines and this info is saying

1) Rising prices ( apart from first time buyer properties ) aren't going up quite as fast they were ( no big news )
2) House builders are upset because people are not building ( what's the consenquence of that ? )
3) Prime property over 2 million ( and associated estate agents ) are suffering because uniquely prime properties got slapped with a lot of stamp duty
( one consequence being first time buyer property is booming ) and with such little sales going through the books because of such tight supply things are tough for the middlemen.

Nothing is suggesting that in the next couple of years property will be cheaper than they are now.

Crashy_Time

Mistermeaner wrote: »

I don't think housing will ever crash - number of movers may drop and av price may dip as a result of those sales that do go through being distressed but most likely thing is people just sit tight..... thus no major opportunity for opportunistic buyers.

Debt, death, divorce, and many other reasons say that this is not correct. People who need and want to sell make the market, not HPI fantasists.