Corbynomics: A Dystopia

Generali

A more nuanced approach to the latest polling:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9480

so, according to the writer at least, a little good news for Labour but probably not much.

Looking at the more detailed questions on perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn his strengths and weaknesses compared to David Cameron are very similar to the ones we got used to in Cameron v Miliband match ups: Cameron scores better on things like being a capable leader, good in a crisis, sound judgement; Corbyn scores better on being in touch with ordinary people, having more substance than style and being more honest than most politicians. Asked overall who would make the most capable Prime Minister Cameron wins by 53% to 27%.

Of course, all of Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings need to be seen in the context that he is very new to the job and the public don’t know a whole lot about him beyond the initial negative press. Early perceptions of him may yet change. His figures may get better… or worse.

MORI also asked about perceptions of the Labour and Conservative parties, and here the impact of Corbyn’s victory on how the Labour party itself is seen was very evident. The proportion of people seeing the party as divided is up 33 points to 75%, extreme is up 22 points to 36% and out of date is up 19 points to 55%. Both the Labour party and the Conservative party had a big jump in the proportion of people saying they were “Different to other parties” – I suppose it takes two parties to be different from each other!

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

A more nuanced approach to the latest polling:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9480

so, according to the writer at least, a little good news for Labour but probably not much.

The comments underneath are interesting. It seems some polling companies are re-jigging their methodologies ( well, why wouldn't you if you got things so wrong )... I don't think they're going to be a reliable indicator for a while yet.

I note that polling companies have updated their methodologies with new weighting methods to account for the shortfall in turnout that Labour suffered in May. If new Labour voters – attracted from Greens, a bit of UKIP, a bit of Didn’t Vote But Will Now – have replaced the Corbyn Won So I’m Off brigade – then we wouldn’t see much change in Labour’s VI. It seems reasonable to assume that something like this is going on, though exact proportions are unknown.
However, if Labour’s new, more ‘radical’ supporters are more likely to turn out than the ones they’ve replaced, the methodological changes to adjust for historical lower Labour turnout might be a correction too far.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The comments underneath are interesting. It seems some polling companies are re-jigging their methodologies ( well, why wouldn't you if you got things so wrong )... I don't think they're going to be a reliable indicator for a while yet.

It's a very knowledgeable bunch that post on that blog.

Yes companies are rejigging their methodologies and are always doing so. Wholesale changes were clearly required after getting the result so badly wrong in England in 2015 and similar changes were needed after 1992 which was even more of a debacle.

The biggest problem with this constant tinkering is that you can't compare between polls as they're measuring things differently. To use an analogy, if you asked Scots if they wanted independence you'd get a different number saying yes to if you asked them if there should be a new referendum.

That twice as many think Mr Cameron would make a good PM than Mr Corbyn must be a huge concern for Labour. One of the very few advantages of opposition is that you can allow people to project their own policy ideals on to you. Mr Corbyn seems to be failing badly in doing that.

It was very interesting listening to Question Time this morning my time. Questioners kept going back to Labour and saying, "Hang on a second, just a few months ago you said you were in favour of X but now you're against". The only answer was to dodge the point entirely but that mud, IMHO, is going to stick. It's a terrible look, not only having flip-flopped but refusing even to recognise it.


That will only get worse for Labour as when they get rid of Mr Corbyn, which by virtue of his age can't be that far into the future, those same people are going to be in the position of having to reverse their views again! This is an unholy mess and I can't see anything good coming out of it except perhaps picking up a few more seats in Scotland.

By the time all this has washed out, Labour will need an entirely new front bench.

setmefree2

gadgetmind wrote: »

Mount a major protest by refusing to sing songs about mermaids.

Mandelson's opinion.

critics of Jeremy Corbyn should consider forcing out their leader only when the majority of party members realise the public has formed a negative view of him, according to Peter Mandelson. The former minister and adviser to Tony Blair offers his view in a private paper that circulated to political associates last week in which he urges them to dig in for the “long haul”.

In his paper, Lord Mandelson writes: “In choosing Corbyn instead of Ed Miliband, the general public now feel we are just putting two fingers up to them, exchanging one loser for an even worse one. We cannot be elected with Corbyn as leader.
“Nobody will replace him, though, until he demonstrates to the party his unelectability at the polls. In this sense, the public will decide Labour’s future and it would be wrong to try and force this issue from within before the public have moved to a clear verdict.”

Mandelson warned that he feared some moderates in that atmosphere would drift away from the party, leading to the party’s possible disintegration. But he makes clear that he does not think defections or the formation of a new party are the correct response to the Corbyn triumph.
He predicts that Corbyn’s supporters will be a force in the party who will not be quickly dissuaded from their support of him. “We need to acknowledge that those who supported him have invested a lot personally in Corbyn, we are not going to convince them overnight they were wrong and before then they will provide an army to draw on as they become absorbed into constituency parties.
“We are in for a long haul during which time the atmosphere in the party will become increasingly acrimonious at branch and constituency levels.”
He argues there is a mood among many grassroots moderates in the party “we’ll come back when the party gets its act together and is serious again”. Those people need to be given the chance to come together, he writes. “Without this, the party in the country will slowly disintegrate as mainstream people withdraw from elected party and local council office. We have to give them hope that there is a way out of our predicament and that Labour does have a future.”

Although Mandelson says moderates in the party cannot begrudge Corbyn his success, he claims only a third of Corbyn’s support came from people who had been Labour members before May. The rest of his support was from those who got swept up by him rather than by any commitment to Labour as such.
Far from being a tidal wave of new, young idealists, he cites research showing that, overall, only 12% of his voters were under 24 years old. The bulk were retreaded Old Labourites who, together with people who voted Green at the election, gave Corbyn his victory. “This does not take away his success but it puts it into perspective and colours its legitimacy,” he concludes.

http://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2015/09/25/mandelson-its-too-early-to-force-jeremy-corbyn-out/

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-09-25/mandelson-labour-should-not-try-to-force-corbyn-out/

gadgetmind

CLAPTON wrote: »

Venezuela is a particularly tragic example : I'm sure Corbyn thinks it's a socialist wonderland but it's up to the people of the country to kick out the idiots that have ruined their country.

The problem is that they are blind to the truth thanks to state run TV. Everything is the fault of "the rich" and big business, so shortages of consumer staples is because evil shopkeepers are selling them on the black market, the gulf between official exchange rates and real-world buying power is the fault of the capitalists, and so it goes on.

The public still love the very people that have brought the country to its knees.

My relatives have now left Venezuela. Their postings were nearly up, then BIL's girlfriend was then accused on state TV of being involved in an attempted coup, so it kind of seemed like the right time.

ruggedtoast

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The comments underneath are interesting. It seems some polling companies are re-jigging their methodologies ( well, why wouldn't you if you got things so wrong )... I don't think they're going to be a reliable indicator for a while yet.

As well as the Left - Right split over Corbyn there is also a generational shift. Younger people see Corbyn as offering something new, older people see him as offering a return to the 3 day week.

Younger people can be accused of ignoring why older people are worried about this. Older people can also be accused of overlooking why younger people are interested in his politics, and rejecting theirs.

In any case, as someone who is mostly pro Corbyn as he is now (his politics are different and need time to bed in, Labour supporters demonstrably dont want another Tony Blair), and not ashamed to be so, I am starting to understand how you Scottish Nationalists felt in the run up to the referendum on independence.

I am even using MSM as an acronym, as I am getting rather tired of endless MSM saucer eyed predictions of doom if I dare to vote the wrong way in the next election, interspersed with ranting oxymoronic monologues as to how stupid I am for not agreeing with them.

It has pretty much galvanised me into voting Labour four years in advance of any campaigning they might want to do.

Mistermeaner

ruggedtoast wrote: »

As well as the Left - Right split over Corbyn there is also a generational shift. Younger people see Corbyn as offering something new, older people see him as offering a return to the 3 day week.

Younger people can be accused of ignoring why older people are worried about this. Older people can also be accused of overlooking why younger people are interested in his politics, and rejecting theirs.

In any case, as someone who is mostly pro Corbyn as he is now (his politics are different and need time to bed in, Labour supporters demonstrably dont want another Tony Blair), and not ashamed to be so, I am starting to understand how you Scottish Nationalists felt in the run up to the referendum on independence.

I am even using MSM as an acronym, as I am getting rather tired of endless MSM saucer eyed predictions of doom if I dare to vote the wrong way in the next election, interspersed with ranting oxymoronic monologues as to how stupid I am for not agreeing with them.

It has pretty much galvanised me into voting Labour four years in advance of any campaigning they might want to do.

Well more fool you then

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I am even using MSM as an acronym, as I am getting rather tired of endless MSM saucer eyed predictions of doom if I dare to vote the wrong way in the next election, interspersed with ranting oxymoronic monologues as to how stupid I am for not agreeing with them.

It has pretty much galvanised me into voting Labour four years in advance of any campaigning they might want to do.

Welcome to how it feels being pro-independence or SNP the last few years. Corbyn will never get good press in the MSM. There's no point even hoping so. They've kept it up against the SNP and Salmond/Sturgeon for eons now. Every wrong move, or even the suggestion of one, slight mistake or even breathing the wrong way will be plastered and slanted to the max all over the newspapers wholesale. With the BBC and Sky news joining in.

If there are any savvy Corbyn supporters out there with web experience, they should be setting up blogs, forums and places to go online instead asap... in order to keep that grassroots momentum and motivation going. Corbyn's going to need it I'm afraid. He won't get a fair hearing anywhere else.

cells

If corybn wiki is correct it says he divorced his second wife with whom he had 3 boys when the eldest was 11 and the mother wanted him to go to a grammar school and corybn a state school.

Now that's principle! Or frackin stupid

Boy ended up going to the grammer school once the wife ended up with the kids

Don't laugh

gadgetmind

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If there are any savvy Corbyn supporters out there

Well, ain't that a right big if!