Corbynomics: A Dystopia

TrickyTree83

antrobus wrote: »

Their love is growing.:)

The latest Guardian/ICM polling figures are out.

Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 45% (up 1)
Labour: 26% (down 2)
Ukip: 10% (down 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Greens: 4% (down 1)
Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/mar/20/tom-watson-accuses-momentum-of-hard-left-plan-to-take-control-of-labour-politics-live?page=with:block-58cfc8c7e4b007e8557edc4c#block-58cfc8c7e4b007e8557edc4c

Well I never, the Cons have had a budget U-Turn, constant drama over Brexit, with the Sturbot causing trouble, and what you get is the biggest Conservative poll lead since 1983.

And the Trots are still telling us it's what "the people" want, to take control of the Labour party. If by taking control they mean ruining, then yes, perhaps that definition of taking control is the same definition by which they're measuring Brexit. Taking back control = ruin it for the hard left in the UK.

westernpromise

What is most surprising within that poll is the pretty decisive 55% centre-right and right vote versus only 39% centre-left and left.

Even back in 1983 I struggle to recall the right being so dominant.

wotsthat

antrobus wrote: »

Well I never, the Cons have had a budget U-Turn, constant drama over Brexit, with the Sturbot causing trouble, and what you get is the biggest Conservative poll lead since 1983.

You'd think they'd be keen to convert that poll lead into a landslide?

westernpromise

They'll get their landslide whenever the election happens.

Something not widely understood is that majority governments are hardly ever defeated at elections and replaced by a majority government of the former opposition. When Thatcher win in 1979 Labour was a minority and when Bliar won in 1997 Major's government had fallen to minority status. Broon had a majority in 2010 so despite gaining a record 97 seats Cameron was unable to unseat him and form his own majority government.

The same maths applies to the next few GEs. Labour are going to lose the next one because they'd need to better Cameron's 1997 seat-gains performance to win. It's clear this won't happen under any leader, given they are 19 points behind. So they lose in 2020 and they lose so badly they will necessarily lose again in 2025 as well, essentially because by then they'll need to win even more than 97 seats.

This means the earliest they can return to power is 2030, or more likely 2035. Either way, the Tories will by then have put through Brexit and remade the country in ways the Labour Party won't be able to reverse and will just have to suck up. Why would May jeopardise a prize like that? She'll win in 2020, probably stand down in about 2022 and then her successor will want to win again in 2025 and 2030 before standing down in 2032 or so.

mrginge

wotsthat wrote: »

You'd think they'd be keen to convert that poll lead into a landslide?

Why bother?

Now that Brexit is almost underway they'll only go if they get a sniff that jezza is on the verge. Otherwise might as well hang on and eat up the current term before starting a new one.

StevieJ

A lot of assumptions that Brexit is not going to go 'tits up' in here.

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

A lot of assumptions that Brexit is not going to go 'tits up' in here.

Little point in worrying until that time arrives, if it ever does. Trumps trade agenda is more likely to have a profound effect. Not just on the UK but Europe.

westernpromise

Likelier than Brexit going tits up is that at some point over the next 10 years a European country will elect a fascist government. France, Italy and Greece are all candidates. That will be the end of the EU.

StevieJ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Little point in worrying until that time arrives, if it ever does. Trumps trade agenda is more likely to have a profound effect. Not just on the UK but Europe.

I doubt Trump will see the year out the way it is going. I think we should be careful who we creep to.

davomcdave

westernpromise wrote: »

Likelier than Brexit going tits up is that at some point over the next 10 years a European country will elect a fascist government. France, Italy and Greece are all candidates. That will be the end of the EU.

Really? Which neo-fascist parties do you see as being likely candidates? I mean proper suspend democracy and kick out the foreigners fascists.

My opinion is that it's vanishingly unlikely that France or Italy will elect an actual fascist party into power. In Greece there's an outside chance but who cares?